Forget what you’ve been told, you do NOT need hundreds of thousands of dollars in your IRA to retire comfortably. Especially when the market is this volatile!
Download this free eBook and learn how you can turn a few hundred dollars into a lavish lifestyle starting right now…..for FREE.
Chuck Hughes, world renowned trading champion and inventor of Optioneering™ the science of creating option trades engineered to win big and eliminate losses.
Reveals an obscure trading ‘loophole’ that spins out a big fat paycheck either every month or every single week. The choice is yours.
After you read Chuck’s tell all eBook, then you can decide how often you want your paycheck to come.
I don’t blame you if you’re skeptical. Most people are at first, especially with the market being so volatile. But real live brokerage statements don’t lie.
And Chuck included his actual account statements in this eBook so you could witness for yourself how perfect Hughes Perpetual Money Machine is for today’s volatile market.
Imagine receiving a steady income week after week, month after month, year after year regardless of economic conditions.
Isn’t this the sort of miracle you’ve been dreaming about your entire life? I know I have. One can never be too rich, you know. As with most free stuff, this is a very limited offer. So I’d encourage you to download your free eBook today, while you can.
See you in the markets,
Ray's Stock World
PS. You’ll also get a rare opportunity to view Cornerstone for Monumental Profits. Chuck says if it weren’t for the one secret revealed in this short video, he probably wouldn’t be the winningest trader in Int’l Live Trading history. Doesn’t that sound like a secret you’d like to know? Watch profit generating video now. |
Showing posts with label eBook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label eBook. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Why You Don’t Need a Big IRA to Enjoy a Lavish Retirement
Monday, April 27, 2015
John Carter's Free eBook "How to Make Money in the Stock Market"
You probably recognize our trading partner John Carter from seeing offers to watch his wildly popular free options trading webinars. John has used these webinars and videos to teach traders some of the most advanced options trading methods imaginable.
Now John has decided to create this new eBook that will help the average home gamer learn how to trade the markets using easy to understand trading techniques that any of us can use starting right now.
In this free stock trading eBook you will learn....
* What are the stock market life cycles that help you predict where the market is headed tomorrow
* Find out who you are trading against and prepare to make the right moves
* How sector rotation can be used to create steady winning trades for your trading account
* How to avoid being impacted by high frequency traders that are manipulating other markets
* How to properly manage your portfolio to generate consistent income within your own personal risk profile
Download the eBook and meet us in the markets putting these methods to work!
See you in the markets!
Ray's Stock World
Get John's latest FREE eBooK "How to Make Money in the Stock Market"....Just Click Here
Now John has decided to create this new eBook that will help the average home gamer learn how to trade the markets using easy to understand trading techniques that any of us can use starting right now.
In this free stock trading eBook you will learn....
* What are the stock market life cycles that help you predict where the market is headed tomorrow
* Find out who you are trading against and prepare to make the right moves
* How sector rotation can be used to create steady winning trades for your trading account
* How to avoid being impacted by high frequency traders that are manipulating other markets
* How to properly manage your portfolio to generate consistent income within your own personal risk profile
Download the eBook and meet us in the markets putting these methods to work!
See you in the markets!
Ray's Stock World
Get John's latest FREE eBooK "How to Make Money in the Stock Market"....Just Click Here
Saturday, April 11, 2015
This Weeks Free Webinar....How to Find High Probability Earnings Trades
Our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options is back with another one of his wildly popular free webinars. This time around it's "How to Find High Probability Earnings Trades"......Register Now
This free webinar will be held this Tuesday April 14th at 8 p.m. eastern time.
In this webinar John will discuss......
* Why earnings announcements offer a quarterly opportunity you may want to take off from work for
* Why playing big price movement is not the only way to trade around earnings
* How to plan around earnings season each quarter so you’re not caught by surprise
* How to avoid the common mistake traders make around earnings
* The simple way to know which options to trade around earnings so you never pick the wrong one
And much more…..
Don’t worry, if you can’t attend live. We’ll send you a link to the recorded webinar within 24-48 hours. But you must pre-register for the event.
Just Click Here to Complete Registration
See you Tuesday,
Ray's Stock World
Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"while you can....Just Click Here!
This free webinar will be held this Tuesday April 14th at 8 p.m. eastern time.
In this webinar John will discuss......
* Why earnings announcements offer a quarterly opportunity you may want to take off from work for
* Why playing big price movement is not the only way to trade around earnings
* How to plan around earnings season each quarter so you’re not caught by surprise
* How to avoid the common mistake traders make around earnings
* The simple way to know which options to trade around earnings so you never pick the wrong one
And much more…..
Don’t worry, if you can’t attend live. We’ll send you a link to the recorded webinar within 24-48 hours. But you must pre-register for the event.
Just Click Here to Complete Registration
See you Tuesday,
Ray's Stock World
Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"while you can....Just Click Here!
Sunday, March 1, 2015
Are you a Brain Dead Trader or Just Lucky?
Were you one of the lucky ones? Were you one of 8,909 traders that registered for this weeks fantastic free webinar from John Carter? If not, not to worry. John has made the webinar available as a replay and of course it's still free to watch. This was another game changer as John found a way to make trading options on premium decay understandable by anyone no matter their trading skill level.
Watch the Free Webinar Replay Here
Why did so many traders fight for a spot at this webinar? I think it has a lot to do with the video primer John send us earlier in the week giving us just a taste of what John would show us in more detail at the webinar.
Watch that Free Video Here
In this video John shows us a simple and effective strategy for using premium decay, but he also shows us his strategy to make money on a stock if it's going up or down.
In this webinar John will discuss....
* Why trading options are perfect for newbies, retirees, part time traders, and full time traders
* Why options are safer than trading stocks, futures or forex while holding on for bigger winners
* One strategy he uses for consistent trading results that you can use the next trading day
* The brain dead rules to follow so you can know exactly how to trade this one set up for consistency
* How traders get sucked into buying the wrong stocks at the wrong price so you never get suckered into a trade again
And much more….
And John doesn't stop there.....
Get his latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!
Nobody did more in 2014 to change the way traders, investors and fund managers looks at trading options than John did with this one eBook. Get yours right now while it's still available.
See you in the markets!
Ray's Stock World
Watch the Free Webinar Replay Here
Why did so many traders fight for a spot at this webinar? I think it has a lot to do with the video primer John send us earlier in the week giving us just a taste of what John would show us in more detail at the webinar.
Watch that Free Video Here
In this video John shows us a simple and effective strategy for using premium decay, but he also shows us his strategy to make money on a stock if it's going up or down.
In this webinar John will discuss....
* Why trading options are perfect for newbies, retirees, part time traders, and full time traders
* Why options are safer than trading stocks, futures or forex while holding on for bigger winners
* One strategy he uses for consistent trading results that you can use the next trading day
* The brain dead rules to follow so you can know exactly how to trade this one set up for consistency
* How traders get sucked into buying the wrong stocks at the wrong price so you never get suckered into a trade again
And much more….
And John doesn't stop there.....
Get his latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!
Nobody did more in 2014 to change the way traders, investors and fund managers looks at trading options than John did with this one eBook. Get yours right now while it's still available.
See you in the markets!
Ray's Stock World
Thursday, January 29, 2015
How to Find the Best Offshore Banks
By Nick Giambruno
It’s hard to think of a topic where following the conventional wisdom can be more dangerous. And that topic is banking. It’s generally accepted as an absolute truth by the public and most financial experts that putting your money in a domestic bank is a safe and responsible thing to do. After all, if anything were to go wrong, your deposits are insured by the government.
As a result, most people put more thought into which shoes they should purchase than which bank should be entrusted with their life savings.
It’s a classic moral hazard—a situation in which a person is more likely to take risks because the costs won’t be borne by that person. In the case of banking, that’s how a lot of people think, but it isn’t necessarily true that individuals bear no costs of their banking decisions. The prudent thing to do is ignore the conventional wisdom and look at the facts to form your opinions. Choosing the right custodian for your life savings makes a difference—and it deserves some serious thought.
In the US, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insures bank deposits. In the case of a bank failure, the FDIC pays depositors up to $250,000. The FDIC has a reserve of around $30 billion for this purpose.
Now, $30 billion might sound like a lot of money. But considering that the FDIC insures around $9 trillion in deposits, the $30 billion in reserve amounts to just a drop in the bucket. It’s actually less than half a penny for every dollar it supposedly insures.
In fact, there are over 36 banks in the US that have deposits larger than the FDIC’s reserve. It wouldn’t take much for the FDIC itself to go bust. One large bank failure is all it would take. And with many of the big banks leveraged to the hilt, that isn’t as remote a possibility as many would believe.
Oddly, this doesn’t shake the confidence the public and most financial experts place in the US banking system.
Also, it’s already an established precedent that whenever a government deems it necessary, deposit guarantees can be disregarded on whim. We saw this in the early days of the financial crisis in Cyprus. The Cypriot government initially sought (but was ultimately rebuffed) to dip its hands into bank accounts under the guaranteed amount. Similarly, Spain has imposed a blanket taxation on all bank deposits. I’d bet this is only the beginning. We haven’t even made it through the coming attractions.
Taken together, this shows that the confidence in the banking system—merely because of the existence of a bankrupt government promise—is dangerously misplaced.
Follow conventional wisdom at your own peril.
See what our traders are trading everyday, and it's FREE....Just Click Here!
Fortunately, in this day and age the decision on where to bank doesn’t have to be constrained by geography. Banking outside of your home country—where much sounder governments, banking systems, and banks can be found—is in most ways just as easy as banking with Bank of America.
Obtaining a bank account outside of your home country is a key component of any international diversification strategy.
It protects you from capital controls, lightning government seizures, bail ins, other forms of confiscation, and any number of other dirty tricks a bankrupt government might try.
Offshore banks offer another benefit: they are usually much safer and more conservatively run than banks in your home country… at least if you live in the US and many parts of Europe. It’s hard to see how you’d be worse off for placing some of your cash where it’s treated best. In the event that your home government does something desperate or your domestic bank makes a losing bet, it could turn out to be a very prudent move.
When Doug Casey and I were in Cyprus, we met with a number of astute Cypriots who saw the writing on the wall. They got their money outside of the country before the bail in and capital controls, and they were spared. It would be wise to learn from their example.
But you shouldn’t just blindly move your savings to any foreign bank. You want to consider only the best.
For me, being able to find the safest and best offshore banks comes naturally. In the past, I worked as a banking analyst for an investment bank in Beirut, Lebanon. While there, I rigorously assessed countless banks around the world. This experience and the analytical tools I developed have been very helpful in evaluating the best offshore banks worthy of holding deposits.
A basic rundown (but not inclusive) of factors I look for when analyzing an offshore bank include:
For example, assume you are a Chinese citizen and want to diversify. It wouldn’t make much sense to open an account with the New York City branch of the Bank of China. It would be much better from a diversification standpoint for the Chinese citizen to open an account with a sound regional or local bank that doesn’t have a presence or connection to mainland China—and thus cannot have its arm easily twisted by the Chinese government.
Each year, a prominent financial magazine publishes a study on the world’s safest banks. Below are its top 10 safest banks in the world (notice that none of them is in the US).
Naturally, things can change quickly though. New options emerge, while others disappear. This is why it’s so important to have the most up-to-date and accurate information possible. That’s where International Man comes in. Be sure to get the free IM Communiqué to keep up with the latest on the best offshore banking options.
Now, as an American citizen, it’s very unlikely that you could just show up to one of these banks and open an account as a nonresident of that country. That is, unless you plan on making a seven figure or high six figure deposit. Then you might have a chance, but even then it’s not guaranteed.
This dynamic is thanks to FATCA and all the red tape that the US government imposes on foreign banks who have US clients. For foreign banks, the logical business decision is to show Americans the unwelcome mat. The costs simply do not justify the benefits.
This is unfortunately true for many banks the world over. The net effect is to drastically reduce the number of choices that Americans have when banking offshore. It’s a sort of de facto capital control.
There are of course exceptions. Some solid offshore banks still accept Americans, and some even open accounts remotely. This means you could obtain huge diversification benefits without having to leave your living room.
In our comprehensive Going Global publication, we discuss our favorite banks and jurisdictions for offshore banking, crucially including those that still accept Americans as clients. It’s a list that is constantly dwindling, which highlights the need to act sooner rather than later.
As a result, most people put more thought into which shoes they should purchase than which bank should be entrusted with their life savings.
It’s a classic moral hazard—a situation in which a person is more likely to take risks because the costs won’t be borne by that person. In the case of banking, that’s how a lot of people think, but it isn’t necessarily true that individuals bear no costs of their banking decisions. The prudent thing to do is ignore the conventional wisdom and look at the facts to form your opinions. Choosing the right custodian for your life savings makes a difference—and it deserves some serious thought.
A False Sense of Security
Now, $30 billion might sound like a lot of money. But considering that the FDIC insures around $9 trillion in deposits, the $30 billion in reserve amounts to just a drop in the bucket. It’s actually less than half a penny for every dollar it supposedly insures.
In fact, there are over 36 banks in the US that have deposits larger than the FDIC’s reserve. It wouldn’t take much for the FDIC itself to go bust. One large bank failure is all it would take. And with many of the big banks leveraged to the hilt, that isn’t as remote a possibility as many would believe.
Oddly, this doesn’t shake the confidence the public and most financial experts place in the US banking system.
Also, it’s already an established precedent that whenever a government deems it necessary, deposit guarantees can be disregarded on whim. We saw this in the early days of the financial crisis in Cyprus. The Cypriot government initially sought (but was ultimately rebuffed) to dip its hands into bank accounts under the guaranteed amount. Similarly, Spain has imposed a blanket taxation on all bank deposits. I’d bet this is only the beginning. We haven’t even made it through the coming attractions.
Taken together, this shows that the confidence in the banking system—merely because of the existence of a bankrupt government promise—is dangerously misplaced.
Follow conventional wisdom at your own peril.
See what our traders are trading everyday, and it's FREE....Just Click Here!
Fortunately, in this day and age the decision on where to bank doesn’t have to be constrained by geography. Banking outside of your home country—where much sounder governments, banking systems, and banks can be found—is in most ways just as easy as banking with Bank of America.
The Solution
It protects you from capital controls, lightning government seizures, bail ins, other forms of confiscation, and any number of other dirty tricks a bankrupt government might try.
Offshore banks offer another benefit: they are usually much safer and more conservatively run than banks in your home country… at least if you live in the US and many parts of Europe. It’s hard to see how you’d be worse off for placing some of your cash where it’s treated best. In the event that your home government does something desperate or your domestic bank makes a losing bet, it could turn out to be a very prudent move.
When Doug Casey and I were in Cyprus, we met with a number of astute Cypriots who saw the writing on the wall. They got their money outside of the country before the bail in and capital controls, and they were spared. It would be wise to learn from their example.
But you shouldn’t just blindly move your savings to any foreign bank. You want to consider only the best.
For me, being able to find the safest and best offshore banks comes naturally. In the past, I worked as a banking analyst for an investment bank in Beirut, Lebanon. While there, I rigorously assessed countless banks around the world. This experience and the analytical tools I developed have been very helpful in evaluating the best offshore banks worthy of holding deposits.
A basic rundown (but not inclusive) of factors I look for when analyzing an offshore bank include:
- The economic fundamentals and political risk of the jurisdictions the bank operates in.
- The quality of the bank’s assets—namely its loan book and investments. This helps you determine what the bank is doing with your money. I look for banks that are conservatively run and don’t gamble with your deposits. Banks that make leveraged bets with things like mortgage-backed securities or Greek government bonds are obviously to be avoided. Having a sound loan book with a low nonperforming ratio is crucial.
- Liquidity—a relatively safer bank will keep more cash on hand rather than invest it in risky assets or loan it out, all else equal. That way it can meet customer withdrawals without having to potentially sell off assets for a loss—which could affect its ability to give you back your deposits.
- Capitalization—this is a measure of its financial strength of the bank. It also shows you if the bank is using excessive leverage, which can increase the risk of insolvency. A bank’s capitalization is like its margin of error: the higher the better.
For example, assume you are a Chinese citizen and want to diversify. It wouldn’t make much sense to open an account with the New York City branch of the Bank of China. It would be much better from a diversification standpoint for the Chinese citizen to open an account with a sound regional or local bank that doesn’t have a presence or connection to mainland China—and thus cannot have its arm easily twisted by the Chinese government.
The Best Offshore Banks
Naturally, things can change quickly though. New options emerge, while others disappear. This is why it’s so important to have the most up-to-date and accurate information possible. That’s where International Man comes in. Be sure to get the free IM Communiqué to keep up with the latest on the best offshore banking options.

Now, as an American citizen, it’s very unlikely that you could just show up to one of these banks and open an account as a nonresident of that country. That is, unless you plan on making a seven figure or high six figure deposit. Then you might have a chance, but even then it’s not guaranteed.
This dynamic is thanks to FATCA and all the red tape that the US government imposes on foreign banks who have US clients. For foreign banks, the logical business decision is to show Americans the unwelcome mat. The costs simply do not justify the benefits.
This is unfortunately true for many banks the world over. The net effect is to drastically reduce the number of choices that Americans have when banking offshore. It’s a sort of de facto capital control.
There are of course exceptions. Some solid offshore banks still accept Americans, and some even open accounts remotely. This means you could obtain huge diversification benefits without having to leave your living room.
In our comprehensive Going Global publication, we discuss our favorite banks and jurisdictions for offshore banking, crucially including those that still accept Americans as clients. It’s a list that is constantly dwindling, which highlights the need to act sooner rather than later.
The article was originally published at internationalman.com.
Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!
Monday, January 26, 2015
The Single Most Important Economic Statistic that the White House Never Talks About
By Tony Sagami
For the first time in 35 years, American business deaths now outnumber business births. —Jim Clifton, CEO, Gallup Polls
If you’ve ever owned a business, you know exactly what I’m talking about.
Difficult or not, self employment is extremely rewarding, and I wouldn’t have it any other way. Nor would the other 6 million business owners in the United States. Of those 6 million businesses, the vast majority are small “Mom and Pop” businesses. Here are more statistics on businesses in the U.S. :
- 3.8 million have four or fewer employees. That’s me!
- 1 million with 5-9 employees;
- 600,000 with 10-19 employees;
- 500,000 with 20-99 employees;
- 90,000 with 100-499 employees;
- 18,000 with 500 employees or more; and
- 1,000 companies with 10,000 employees or more.
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For those reasons, the health (or lack thereof) of small business is the single most important long term indicator of America’s economic health. Warning: new data suggest that small businesses are in deep trouble.
For the first time in 35 years, the number of business deaths outnumbers the number of business births.
The US Census Bureau reported that the birth and death rates of American businesses crossed for the first time ever! 400,000 new businesses were born last year, but 470,000 died.
Yup, business deaths now outnumber business births.
Pay attention, because this part is important.
The problem isn’t so much that businesses are failing, but that American entrepreneurs are simply not starting as many new businesses as they used to. We like to think of America has the hotbed of capitalism, but the US actually is number 12 among developed nations for new business startups.
Number 12!
You know what countries are ahead of us? Hungary, Denmark, Finland, New Zealand, Sweden, Israel, and even financially troubled Italy are creating new businesses faster than us!
The reasons for the capitalist pessimism are many, but my guess is that the root of the problem comes down to three issues: (1) difficulty of accessing capital (loans); (2) excessive and burdensome government regulations; and (3) an overall malaise about our economic future.
Business owners are permanently smitten with an entrepreneurial bug, and the only thing that prevents them from seeking business success is the expectation that they’ll lose money.
Sadly, the lack of new business start ups is confirmation that American’s free enterprise system is broken.
"There is nobody in this country who got rich on their own. Nobody. You built a factory out there—good for you. But I want to be clear. You moved your goods to market on roads the rest of us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn't have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory... Now look. You built a factory and it turned into something terrific or a great idea—God bless! Keep a hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along."
―Elizabeth Warren |
“When small and medium-sized businesses are dying faster than they’re being born, so is free enterprise. And when free enterprise dies, America dies with it,” warns Gallup CEO Jim Clifton.
I don’t believe for a second that America’s free-enterprise system is permanently broken. The pendulum will eventually swing the other way, but our economy will not enjoy boom times until the birth/death trends are reversed.
That won’t happen next week or next month. It will take serious, fundamental changes in tax, regulatory, and judicial rules, and I sadly fear that it will take several years for that to happen. Until then, our economy is going to struggle and will pull our high flying stock market down with it. Are you prepared?
If you’re not familiar with inverse ETFs, you’re ignoring one of your best defenses against tough times. An inverse ETF is an exchange traded fund that’s designed to perform as the inverse of whatever index or benchmark it’s designed to track.
By providing performance opposite to their benchmark, inverse ETFs prosper when stock prices are falling. An inverse S&P 500 ETF, for example, seeks a daily percentage movement opposite that of the S&P. If the S&P 500 rises by 1%, the inverse ETF is designed to fall by 1%; and if the S&P falls by 1%, the inverse ETF should rise by 1%.
There are inverse ETFs for most major indices and even sectors and commodities (like oil and gold), as well as specialty ETFs for things like the VIX Volatility Index.
I’m not suggesting that you rush out and buy a bunch of inverse ETFs tomorrow morning. As always, timing is critical, so I recommend that you wait for my buy signals in my Rational Bear service.
But make no mistake, the birth/death ratio is signaling serious trouble ahead. Any investor who doesn’t prepare for it is going to get run over and flattened like a pancake.

Tony Sagami
30 year market expert Tony Sagami leads the Yield Shark and Rational Bear advisories at Mauldin Economics. To learn more about Yield Shark and how it helps you maximize dividend income, click here.
To learn more about Rational Bear and how you can use it to benefit from falling stocks and sectors, click here.
The article Connecting the Dots: The Single Most Important Economic Statistic that the White House Never Talks A was originally published at mauldineconomics.com
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Thursday, January 22, 2015
A Five Year Forecast: Is this a Tsunami Warning?
By John Mauldin
There is a book in here somewhere, but I do not intend to write one today. In fact, my New Year’s resolution is to write shorter letters in 2015. Over the last decade and a half, the letter has tended to get longer. A little more here, a little more there, and pretty soon it just gets to be a bit too much to read in one sitting. That means I need to either be more concise, break up my topics into two sessions or, if further writing is necessary, post the additional work on the website for those interested.
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So I’m writing today’s letter in that spirit. Each of the major topics we’ll be covering will show up in other letters over the next few months. I would appreciate your feedback and any links to articles and/or data points that you think I should know about regarding these topics.
But first, this is generally the most downloaded letter of the year. I want to invite new readers to become one of my 1 million closest friends by simply entering your email address here. You can follow my work throughout the year, absolutely free (and see how my prognostications are turning out). And if you’re a regular reader, why not send this to a few of your friends and suggest they join you? At the very least, Thoughts from the Frontline should make for some interesting conversations this year. Thanks. Now let’s get on with the forecasting.
Seven Significant Changes for the Next Five Years
Let’s look at what I think are six inexorable trends or waves that will each have a major impact in its own right but that when taken together will amount to a tsunami of change for the global economy.
1. Japan will continue its experiment with the most radical quantitative easing attempted by a major country in the history of the world… and the experiment is getting dangerous. The Bank of Japan is effectively exporting the island nation’s deflation to its trade competitors like Germany, China, and South Korea and inviting a currency war that could shake the world. I’ve been saying this for years now, but the story took a nasty turn on Halloween Day, when the Bank of Japan announced it was greatly expanding and changing the mix of its asset purchases. The results have been downright scary, and a major slide in the JPY/USD exchange rate is almost certain over the next five years. I give it a 90% probability. All this while the population of Japan shrinks before our very eyes.
2. Europe is headed for a crisis at least as severe as the Grexit scare was in 2012 – and for the resulting run-up in interest rates and a sovereign debt scare in the peripheral countries. After all these years of struggle, the structural flaws in the EMU’s design remain; and now major economies like Italy and France are headed for trouble. In the very near future we will finally know the answer to the question, “Is the euro a currency or an experiment?” The changes required to answer that question will be wrenching and horrifically expensive. There are no good answers, only difficult choices about who pays how much and to whom. Again, I see the deepening of the Eurozone crisis as a 90% probability.
3. China is approaching its day of reckoning as it tries to reduce its dependency on debt in its bid for growth, while creating a consumer society. The world is simply not prepared for China to experience an outright “hard landing” or recession, but I think there is a 70% probability that it will do so within the next five years.
And the probability that China will suffer either a hard landing OR a long period of Japanese style stagnation (in the event that the Chinese government is forced to absorb nonperforming loans to prevent a debt crisis) is over 95%. To be sure, it is still quite possible that the Chinese economy will be significantly larger in 2025 (ten years from now) than it is today, but realizing that potential largely depends on President Xi Jinping’s ability to accomplish an extremely difficult task: deleveraging the debt overhang that threatens the country’s MASSIVE financial system while rebalancing the national economy to a more sustainable growth model (either through either a vast expansion of China’s export market or the rapid development of “new economy” sectors like technology, services, and consumption; or both).
This will not be the end of China, which I’m quite bullish on over the very long term, but such transitions are never easy. Even given this rather stark forecast, it is still likely (in my opinion) that the Chinese economy will be 20 to 25% bigger as 2020 opens than it is today; and every other major economy in the world (including the US) would be thrilled to have such growth. At the very least, though, China’s slowdown and rebalancing is going to put pressure on commodity exporters, which are generally emerging markets plus Australia, Canada, and Norway.
4. All of the above will tend to be bullish for the dollar, which will make dollar-denominated debt in emerging market countries more difficult to pay back. And given the amount of debt that has been created in the last few years, it is likely that we’ll see a series of crises in emerging-market countries, along with an uncomfortably high level of risk of setting off an LTCM-style global financial shock.
My colleague Worth Wray spoke about this new era of volatile FX flows and growing risk of capital flight from emerging markets at my Strategic Investor Conference last May, and he has continued to remind us of those risks in recent months (“A Scary Story for Emerging Markets” and “Why the World Needs the US Economy to Struggle”).
Now that Russia has tumbled into a full-fledged currency crisis with serious signs of contagion, Worth’s prediction is already playing out, and I would assign an 80 to 90% probability that it will continue to do so, as a function of (1) the rising US dollar and a reversal in cross border capital flows, (2) falling commodity prices, or (3) both. This massive wave is going to create a lot of opportunities for courageous investors who are ready to surf when countries are cheap.
5. I do not believe that the secular bear market in the United States that I began to describe in 1999 has ended. Secular bull markets simply do not begin from valuations like those we have today. Either we began a secular bull market in 2009, or we have one more major correction in front of us.
Obviously, I think it is the latter. It has been some time since I’ve discussed the difference between secular bull and bear markets and cyclical bull and bear markets, and I will briefly touch on the topic today and go into much more detail in later letters. For US focused investors, this is of major importance. The secular bear is not something to be scared of but simply something to be played. It also offers a great deal of opportunity.
If I am right, then the next major leg down will bring on the end of the secular bear and the beginning of a very long term secular bull. We will all get to be geniuses in the 2020s and perhaps even before the last half of this decade runs out. Won’t that be fun? Let’s call the end of the secular bear a 90% probability in five years and move on.
6. Finally, the voters of the United States are going to have to make a decision about the direction they want to take the country. We can either opt for growth, which will mean a new tax and regulatory regime, or we can double down on the current direction and become Europe and Japan. I’ve traveled to both Europe and Japan, and they’re both pleasant enough places to live, but I wouldn’t want to be a citizen of either Japan or the Eurozone for the rest of this decade. (I particularly love Italy, but it is beginning to resemble a basket case, with last year’s optimistic drive for reforms seemingly stalled.)
However, I would rather live and work and invest in a high-growth country, with opportunities all around me, a country where we reduce income inequality by increasing wealth and opportunities at the lower end of the income scale instead of trying to legislate parity by increasing taxes and imposing government mandated wealth redistribution, which slows growth and squelches opportunity for everyone.
A restructuring of the US tax and regulatory regime does not mean a capitulation to the wealthy, big banks, or big business. Properly conceived and constructed, it will allow the renewal of the middle class and result in higher income for all. Sadly, it is not clear to me that either the Republican or Democratic parties are up to the task of making the difficult political decisions necessary. They each have constituencies that tend to opt for the status quo. But I see hope on both sides of the political spectrum that change is possible. The course they set will give us an idea where we will want to focus our portfolios in the decade of the ’20s. It is a 100% probability that we will have to make a decision. It is less than 50% that we will make the right one – or at least the one that I think is the right one.
7. We have entered the Age of Transformation. We’re going to see the development of new technologies that will simply astound us – from increasingly capable robots and other applications of AI to huge breakthroughs in biotechnology.
The winners are going to be those who identified the truly transformational technologies early on in their development and invested wisely. While riskier (potentially far riskier) than most of your investments should be, a basket of new-technology stocks should be considered for the growth part of your portfolio. I see the Age of Transformation as a 100% probability.
Just for the record, I also see a continuation of the global deflationary environment and a slowing of the velocity of money until we have some type of resolution concerning sovereign debt. Central banks will continue to try to solve the “crises” I mentioned above with monetary policy, but monetary policy will simply not be enough to stem the tide. Central banks can paddle as hard as they like into the waves of change, but they cannot reverse their powerful flow.
Now, let’s look further at each of the waves that are forming into a potential tsunami.
To continue reading this article from Thoughts from the Frontline – a free weekly publication by John Mauldin, renowned financial expert, best-selling author, and Chairman of Mauldin Economics – please click here.
The article Thoughts from the Frontline: A Five-Year Global Financial Forecast: Tsunami Warning was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.
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Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Three Simple Techniques to Improve Your Trading
Hey traders, Ray here with Ray's Stock World. Today I wanted to share with you a short training video that combines the experience of thousands of live trades and nearly 19 years of active trading experience.
The folks over at NetPicks have put together a short training video that lays out three simple techniques you should be following to instantly improve your trading today.
You can view the video by Just Clicking Here and there are no email or other obligations required.
In just over 10 minutes they detail for you what a trader should be doing right now in 2015. Things have changed dramatically since options, futures and forex trading became popular as you'll see. Find out what matters in 2015 and add more winning trades to your account today.
Watch "Three Simple Techniques to Improve Your Trading"
See you in the markets!
Ray's Stocks World
Get out latest FREE eBooK "Understanding Options"......Just Click Here
The folks over at NetPicks have put together a short training video that lays out three simple techniques you should be following to instantly improve your trading today.
You can view the video by Just Clicking Here and there are no email or other obligations required.
In just over 10 minutes they detail for you what a trader should be doing right now in 2015. Things have changed dramatically since options, futures and forex trading became popular as you'll see. Find out what matters in 2015 and add more winning trades to your account today.
Watch "Three Simple Techniques to Improve Your Trading"
See you in the markets!
Ray's Stocks World
Get out latest FREE eBooK "Understanding Options"......Just Click Here
Saturday, January 3, 2015
Heads Up......Bill's 4 Part Options Course is Disappearing
Access to all of Bill Poulos's awesome free Options Profit Mastery training videos is shutting down this Tuesday. So that gives you just a few more days to make sure you capture all the training.
This is simple. Go here, take notes, then trade options like a pro......Just Click Here
We have confirmed with Bill's office that he WILL be closing his "second chance" enrollment into his full Options Profit Mastery program late Tuesday at 11:59 pm Eastern time.
See you in the markets on Monday!
Ray's Stock World
Make sure you get our latest FREE eBooK "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here
This is simple. Go here, take notes, then trade options like a pro......Just Click Here
We have confirmed with Bill's office that he WILL be closing his "second chance" enrollment into his full Options Profit Mastery program late Tuesday at 11:59 pm Eastern time.
See you in the markets on Monday!
Ray's Stock World
Make sure you get our latest FREE eBooK "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here
Monday, December 15, 2014
Seven Questions Gold Bears Must Answer
By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst
A glance at any gold price chart reveals the severity of the bear mauling it has endured over the last three years. More alarming, even for die hard gold investors, is that some of the fundamental drivers that would normally push gold higher, like a weak U.S. dollar, have reversed.Throw in a correction defying Wall Street stock market and the never ending rain of disdain for gold from the mainstream and it may seem that there’s no reason to buy gold; the bear is here to stay.
If so, then I have a question. Actually, a whole bunch of questions.
If we’re in a bear market, then…..
Why Is China Accumulating Record Amounts of Gold?
But total gold imports are up. Most journalists continue to overlook the fact that China imports gold directly into Beijing and Shanghai now. And there are at least 12 importing banks—that we know of.
Counting these “unreported” sources, imports have risen sharply. How do we know? From other countries’ export data. Take Switzerland, for example:
So far in 2014, Switzerland has shipped 153 tonnes (4.9 million ounces) to China directly. This represents over 50% of what they sent through Hong Kong (299 tonnes).
The UK has also exported £15 billion in gold so far in 2014, according to customs data. In fact, London has shipped so much gold to China (and other parts of Asia) that their domestic market has “tightened significantly” according to bullion analysts there.
Why Is China Working to Accelerate Its Accumulation?
As evidence of burgeoning demand, gold trading on China’s largest physical exchange has already exceeded last year’s record volume. YTD volume on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including the city’s free trade zone, was 12,077 tonnes through October vs. 11,614 tonnes in all of 2013.
The Chinese wave has reached tidal proportions—and it’s still growing.
Why Are Other Countries Hoarding Gold?
India and China currently account for approximately 3,100 tonnes of gold demand, and the WGC says new mine production was 3,115 tonnes during the same period.
And in spite of all the government attempts to limit gold imports, India just recorded the highest level of imports in 41 months; the country imported over 39 tonnes in November alone, the most since May 2011.
Let’s not forget Russia. Not only does the Russian central bank continue to buy aggressively on the international market, Moscow now buys directly from Russian miners. This is largely because banks and brokers are blocked from using international markets by US sanctions. Despite this, and the fact that Russia doesn’t have to buy gold but keeps doing so anyway.
Global gold demand now eats up more than miners around the world can produce. Do all these countries see something we don’t?
Why Are Retail Investors NOT Selling SLV?
While the silver price has fallen 16.5% so far this year, SLV holdings have risen 9.5%.
Why are so many silver investors not only holding on to their ETF shares but buying more?
Why Are Bullion Sales Setting New Records?
And yet 2014 is on track to exceed last year’s record-setting pace, particularly with silver…
- November silver Eagle sales from the US Mint totaled 3,426,000 ounces, 49% more than the previous year. If December sales surpass 1.1 million coins—a near certainty at this point—2014 will be another record-breaking year.
- Silver sales at the Perth Mint last month also hit their highest level since January. Silver coin sales jumped to 851,836 ounces in November. That was also substantially higher than the 655,881 ounces in October.
- And India’s silver imports rose 14% for the first 10 months of the year and set a record for that period. Silver imports totaled a massive 169 million ounces, draining many vaults in the UK, similar to the drain for gold I mentioned above.
Why Are Some Mainstream Investors Buying Gold?
Ray Dalio runs the world’s largest hedge fund, with approximately $150 billion in assets under management. As my colleague Marin Katusa puts it, “When Ray talks, you listen.”
And Ray currently allocates 7.5% of his portfolio to gold.
He’s not alone. Joe Wickwire, portfolio manager of Fidelity Investments, said last week, “I believe now is a good time to take advantage of negative short-term trading sentiment in gold.”
Then there are Japanese pension funds, which as recently as 2011 did not invest in gold at all. Today, several hundred Japanese pension funds actively invest in the metal. Consider that Japan is the second-largest pension market in the world. Demand is also reportedly growing from defined benefit and defined contribution plans.
And just last Friday, Credit Suisse sold $24 million of US notes tied to an index of gold stocks, the largest offering in 14 months, a bet that producers will rebound from near six-year lows.
These (and other) mainstream investors are clearly not expecting gold and gold stocks to keep declining.
Why Are Countries Repatriating Gold?
- Netherlands repatriated 122 tonnes (3.9 million ounces) last month.
- France’s National Front leader urged the Bank of France last month to repatriate all its gold from overseas vaults, and to increase its bullion assets by 20%.
- The Swiss Gold Initiative, which did not pass a popular vote, would’ve required all overseas gold be repatriated, as well as gold to comprise 20% of Swiss assets.
- Germany announced a repatriation program last year, though the plan has since fizzled.
- And this just in: there are reports that the Belgian central bank is investigating repatriation of its gold reserves.
These strong signs of demand don’t normally correlate with an asset in a bear market. Do you know of any bear market, in any asset, that’s seen this kind of demand?
Neither do I.
My friends, there’s only one explanation: all these parties see the bear soon yielding to the bull. You and I obviously aren’t the only ones that see it on the horizon.
Christmas Wishes Come True…..
I say we back up the truck for the bargain of the century. Just like all the others above are doing.
With gold on sale for the holidays, I arranged for premium discounts on SEVEN different bullion products in the new issue of BIG GOLD. With gold and silver prices at four-year lows and fundamental forces that will someday propel them a lot higher, we have a truly unique buying opportunity. I want to capitalize on today’s “most mispriced asset” before sentiment reverses and the next uptrend in precious metals kicks into gear. It’s our first ever Bullion Buyers Blowout—and I hope you’ll take advantage of the can’t-beat offers.
Someday soon you will pay a lot more for your insurance. Save now with these discounts.
The article 7 Questions Gold Bears Must Answer was originally published at casey research.
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Tuesday, December 2, 2014
Investors That Do Not Understand The Power Of Seven Will Lose Money in 2015
Investors and traders around the world continually search to find or increase their edge in the financial markets to boost profits. The next few months are going to be critical for investors because the number seven is now in play for the stock market.
In magical lore seven is a magical number., While all numbers are ascribed certain properties and energies, seven is a number of power, a lucky number, a number of psychic and mystical powers, of secrecy and the search for truth. Seven is used 735 times in the bible and if you total up all words including “sevenfold” and “seventh” there is a total of 860 references.
The origin of seven’s power lies in the lunar cycle. The moon has four phases lasts about seven days. The Sumerians gave the week seven days. Life cycles on earth also have phases demarcated by seven, and there are seven years to each stage of human growth, seven colors to the rainbow, seven notes in the musical scale, seven petitions in the Lord’s Prayer, and seven deadly sins.
More importantly for investors the number seven and multiples of seven have a powerful influence on money. The U.S. stock market is now trading in the seventh year window and it should not be taken lightly. While I could go into a lot more detail about how I use seven in my algorithmic trading strategy to swing trade the S&P 500 index. This article focuses on the investing outlook.
I am fortunate enough that I have been trading since 1997 and have seen the how the stock market cycles affect human behavior and businesses specifically the financial newsletter industry which I have been involved in since the first day my trading career. The stock market appears to be nearing a critical turning point that will change the lives and behaviors of investors for years to come.
The good news is that I have experienced four of these turning points and human behavior shifts in my career before and we currently entering the fifth turning point. I feel obligated to share this valuable insight with those of you who read my work. The next major market move could have a dramatic impact on your wealth and retirement years.
Insight on Investor Behavior and Business
Being heavily involved in the financial newsletter industry I have not only seen but survived several of these major cycles which forced many newsletters to go out of business. The cycles at play here are the market trend and the behavior of traders and investors.
The combined forces of these two cycles are what cleanse the newsletter industry of poor quality services. It becomes almost impossible to obtain new clients without word of mouth/referrals from happy users and if the quality of the newsletter is poor, eventually they lack enough users to make it feasible to operate. Unfortunately it’s the brutal truth, and over the last couple years I am seeing newsletters and even to top trading magazines that have been around for decades closing their doors.
The business cycle can easily be explained by observing the chart below of the SP500 index. In short, when the stock market has been rising for six or more months investors start to become confident in that they can make money on their own. And in fact they can if they buy and hold during a bull market.
But what happens as the market continues to rise for many years is that more and more investors and traders realize they can make money on their own. The longer the uptrend remains intact the less will need the help of a trading and investing newsletter making it difficult to get new customers in this highly competitive industry.
Currently investors are behaving almost identical to what I saw during 1999 – 2001, from 2006 – 2007, and now 2014 – 2015 market tops.
Did you notice anything with those market tops? They are 7 years apart…
Let’s now take a look at the best times in the business cycle where traders and investors are in desperate need of help and start subscribing to multiple paid financial newsletter services. The strongest times for business took place during 2002 – 2003, and again in 2008 – 2010. This is when investor not only lost most of their wealth, but their faith in how they invest, who they invest with, and the stock market as a whole.
Did you notice any these also? They are 7 years apart also…
Investors 7 Year Financial Outlook
Those of you who follow me know that I do not pick market tops or bottoms. Rather I focus on identifying trends and cycles in the market and only trade and invest with the active confirmed trend.
You also know that trying to pick market tops and bottoms is a suckers game and a sure fire way to lose a lot of money and build a serious complex that the market is manipulated, not tradable, and that it may be time for you to give up on trading all together.
Well, I am here to say that the market is tradeable, and can generate traders and investors a boat load of money once you understand how and why it moves. Most importantly you need to understand money/position management and be patient for consistent long term gains.
Take a look at the chart below for a clear visual of 7 year cycle highs and lows at play.
While I do not invest based on this major seven year cycle I do actively trade a smaller market cycle which provides roughly 35 – 65 trades per year. This strategy allows me to profit during these major bull markets and also during the multi-year bear markets when the majority of investors are losing boat loads of their hard earned money.
The reason I do not invest in the seven year cycle is because the market can still have 30+% price swings within bull and bear markets and that type of volatility is beyond what I am comfortable with. Also because I can actively invest with my automated trading system so I don’t need to lift a finger or watch the stock market each day, week or month.
I hope you found this report useful in some way, and I ask that you share it with others.
Chris Vermeulen
www.The Gold & Oil Guy.com
www.The Gold & Oil Guy.com
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Thursday, October 30, 2014
Heads Up.....Our New Options Related eBook and Some Insider Info
First of all, read this eBook if you're interested in Options, you actively TRADE options, or want to lay the groundwork for being a successful options trader.
Understanding Options by John Carter
It's a great book from an options expert who's taught THOUSANDS of traders over the past year alone to conquer the options market like he has...and trade successfully!
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Second, related to the above ebook, I received from an inside source that John's been perfecting and trading a new options strategy focusing on leveraging the huge potential of ETFs...and he's going to be SHOWING people exactly how it works...start to finish!
I can't disclose much, but if you trade ETF's and want to leverage trade them using options, then keep an eye out for when I'm 'officially' allowed to tell you about it. (hopefully in another 2 weeks according to my source)
For now...Read his eBook FREE!
See you in the markets!
Ray's Stocks World
"Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!
Understanding Options by John Carter
It's a great book from an options expert who's taught THOUSANDS of traders over the past year alone to conquer the options market like he has...and trade successfully!
Just Click Here to Read it NOW!
Second, related to the above ebook, I received from an inside source that John's been perfecting and trading a new options strategy focusing on leveraging the huge potential of ETFs...and he's going to be SHOWING people exactly how it works...start to finish!
I can't disclose much, but if you trade ETF's and want to leverage trade them using options, then keep an eye out for when I'm 'officially' allowed to tell you about it. (hopefully in another 2 weeks according to my source)
For now...Read his eBook FREE!
See you in the markets!
Ray's Stocks World
"Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!
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Tuesday, October 21, 2014
The 10th Man....What a Correction Feels Like
By Jared Dillian
Back in the summer of 2007, when I was working for Lehman Brothers, I had a vacation to the Bahamas planned. This was unusual for me. Up until that point, in six years of working for Lehman, I had taken about five vacation days—total. But my wife and I were going to a semi primitive resort on Cat Island, the most desolate island in the Bahamas. Interesting place for a vacation. Suffice to say that it’s plenty hot in the Bahamas in August.
The market had been acting funny for a while, and I had a hunch that there was going to be trouble while I was gone, so I bought the 30 strike calls in the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX). I was betting that volatility was going to go up a lot in a short period of time. In fact, these options—which I spent a little over $100,000 on—would be worthless unless there was outright panic. I gave instructions to my colleagues to sell the call options if the VIX went over 35. (Note: my memory on the details of the trade, like the strike of the options and the level of the VIX, is a little hazy. The specifics might have been different, but you get the general idea.)
So there I was, sunning myself at this primitive resort on Cat Island and the world was melting down, and I was completely oblivious to what was going on back on Wall Street. Coincidentally, the local Bahamas newspaper had a picture of black swans on the cover one day. I staged a photo of me in a hammock reading the newspaper with the black swans on it. I still have that photo.
I got back to civilization and checked the markets. I saw the chart of the VIX. I could hardly contain myself. If my colleagues had executed the trades properly, I would have had a profit of over $800,000. But when I got back to work and opened my spreadsheet, I found that I’d made less than $100,000. What I had failed to consider was that if the world actually was blowing up, the guys would have been too busy to execute my trade.
So there is this whole idea of state dependence that we have to consider when we’re talking about the market. Like, you might have a plan to buy stocks when the index gets below a certain level, but when the market gets to that point, you: a) may not have the capital; and b) might be panicking into your shorts. It’s nice to have a plan, but, paraphrasing Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.
I remember reading Russell Napier’s book about bear markets, called Anatomy of the Bear. It talked about all the big bear markets in the US, including the granddaddy of them all, the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression. One of the things that I learned from this book was that if you can time the bottom exactly right, you can make a hell of a lot of money in very short order. For example, if you had bought the lows in 1932, you could have doubled your money in a matter of months.
I wanted to do that. I prayed for a bear market, so I would get my chance.
Little did I know that I would get my chance just two years later—and blow it.
When the market is down 60%, it’s scary as hell to buy stocks. Hindsight being 20/20, you can say, “What, did you think it was going to zero?” Actually, yes—in March of 2009, people thought it was going to zero.
But for those people who: a) had capital; and b) weren’t terrified, it was a once in a lifetime opportunity.
A Thousand Days with No Correction
As for b), you tend not to be terrified if you have capital.
Everyone knows by now that the stock market is correcting. The price action is pretty terrible. Will it get worse? I think so. We’re seeing excesses (corporate credit, growth stocks, IPOs) that we haven’t seen in many, many years. It’s been over 1,000 days since we’ve had a correction of any magnitude. With the market down about 5%, nobody is particularly worried, because every other time the market was down 5%, it ended up going higher.
Back to state dependence. What is it going to feel like if the market goes down further? How will people behave if the S&P 500 gets to, say, 1,700?
I can tell you what it will be like if the S&P gets to 1,700. It’s going to be like it was in August of 2007 when my coworkers forgot to sell my VIX calls because they were buried under an avalanche of panicked sell orders from institutional money managers. Pre-algorithmic trading, the trading floor used to get pretty noisy. I used to be able to tell you what the market was doing just from listening to the floor. At SPX 1,700, trading floors will be very noisy.
It’s been so long since we’ve had a correction, I’m guessing that most people have forgotten what a correction feels like. When you go that long in between corrections, people are sitting on a mountain of capital gains. And unless the capital gains really start to disappear, there is little pressure to sell. But if you’re the owner of, say, airline stocks, and you’ve watched them evaporate to the tune of 30%, that tends to focus the mind a little bit.
As with any steep correction, there will be fantastic opportunities, but they will only be available to those who have capital. Remember, bear markets don’t just destroy the bulls’ capital, they destroy the bears’ capital, too.
Bear markets destroy everyone’s capital.
Jared Dillian
The article The 10th Man: What a Correction Feels Like was originally published at mauldin economics
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Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Straight Talk from Yogi Berra: 9 Ways to Retire Rich
By Dennis Miller
“In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.”—Yogi Berra
It’s October, AKA the major league baseball postseason. As a lifelong baseball fan, I take the wisdom of Yogi Berra seriously. And when it comes to planning for the autumn of life, Yogi is spot on.It seems as though every day an article titled “5 Tips for Retirement Saving” or something similar hits my inbox. I scan for the author’s name, and I’m amazed by how often it’s distinctly contemporary—Jennifer, Brandon, or another name of that vintage. Jennifer’s title is something like “staff writer,” and I immediately picture a fresh-faced young person with a newly minted journalism degree. After work, maybe she jumps in her starter BMW and heads to a local watering hole with her friends to gripe about student loan repayments.
“Jennifer” means well. After all, she’s just doing her job. She recommends setting financial goals, getting out of debt, living within your means, and saving from a young age. I won’t argue with those recommendations. Jennifer’s grandparents probably did just that. If you can pull off following that advice to a T, chances are you’ll accumulate a good deal of wealth.
However, once Jennifer has tried to put her advice to practice for a couple of decades, she might understand that it’s neither simple nor easy, despite how it might sound. Most people know what they should do, but it’s often tough and painful to execute in real life.
During my 74 years I’ve met a lot of successful and rich retired friends who sure didn’t go about it Jennifer’s way. How many baby boomers do you know who married young, raised a family, put their children through school, and consistently saved in their 20s, 30s or even 40s? There are a few, but many—if not most—young families lived through a decade or more of “Why is there is so much month left at the end of the money?”
Several times a month a 50- or 60-year-old Miller’s Money subscriber writes in asking for help with how to accomplish a last-ditch push to save. Truth be told, most of my friends never got serious about retirement until after they’d raised children. It doesn’t mean they were right; it’s just the way it was. Should they have started earlier? Of course. But they didn’t. Some didn’t know how, some were overwhelmed by day to day expenses, and some overspent on stuff, stuff, and more stuff. Many got serious in the nick of time, but they did it.
Retiring Rich When You’re Under the Wire
The best place to begin is to define “rich.” For our team, rich means having enough money to choose whether or not to work and enough money that you control your time. Rich means you live comfortably according to your personal standards. If you’ve lived a middle class lifestyle, a rich retirement means you can maintain that same lifestyle without worry.
Ten days out of high school, I was on a train to Parris Island, South Carolina. One of the best teachers I ever had was SSgt. Thomas R. Phebus. He was an archetype—the ideal combination of common sense and straight talk. I’m going to take a page out of his book and share some straight talk on how to make a rich retirement your reality.
The 9 Step Program
Pension plans are no longer the norm. Corporate America just couldn’t do it. Some filed for bankruptcy and broke their promises. Either way, in the private sector, 401(k)s are the new norm. They’re optional—no one makes you contribute.
Now local governments are filing for bankruptcy, many unable to fulfill their pension promises. No matter whom you work for—a big or small corporation, a government agency, or yourself—if you want to retire, be damn sure you’re saving… no matter what you’ve been promised.
#2—Plan to work your tail off. I don’t know anyone who’s accumulated even modest wealth working 40 hours a week. If you want to work for 40 years and pay for 60 plus years of life, chances are you’ll have to do more than that.
When you work, you trade your time, talent, and expertise for money. When you retire, you trade your money for time. In theory, you can work 60 hours a week, live off two thirds of your income (40 hours’ worth), and invest the remaining one third (20 hours’ worth). However, if you start saving early, perhaps saving income equal to 10 hours of work will be enough. Your savings will have more time to accumulate and compound, and you’ve bought yourself extra leisure time along the way.
If both spouses are working hard outside the home, which is the norm today, work toward living off of one paycheck and investing the other (or using it to pay off debts and then start investing). Many of our retired friends did just that.
#3—Don’t complain when others have more. Someone always will.
This one saddens me. We have a few friends who chose to work 40 hours a week for most of their working lives. They felt it was important to spend more time at home with their families, and there’s nothing wrong with that choice. Still, it’s a trade-off.
I look at it as though they enjoyed mini slices of retirement time when they were young. If that’s your choice, don’t begrudge others who chose a different path and worked and/or saved more. They don’t owe you anything.
#4—Get out of debt and stay that way. Virtually every wealthy friend I have only started to build wealth after eliminating debt, including home mortgages. Some theory-loving pundits suggest taking out a low-interest mortgage and investing the money with the hope of earning more than the mortgage interest. Oh really? Most people’s investments don’t perform that well.
The chart below highlights how poorly the average investor stacks up:
Sure, some beat the odds, but even professional fund managers struggle to do so. As of mid-2013, 59.58% of large-cap funds, 68.88% of mid-cap funds, and 64.27% of small-cap funds underperformed their respective benchmark indices, according to Aye M. Soe, McGraw Hill financial director.
If the big boys have a hard time and the average investor earns just 2.1%, one better secure a darn low mortgage rate before borrowing to invest.
One of the top ways to blow your nest egg is to stop working while you still have a mortgage. Downsize if you have to. Your personal home is not an investment; it’s part of the cost of living.
#5—Get smart while you get out of debt. Commit some of your time to financial education long before you plan to retire. Part of the reason the average investor earns just 2.1% is that many, if not most, haven’t taken the time to learn. If you want to out-earn the average investor, start by investing in education.
Understanding the markets is an ongoing process. The investment world is constantly changing, and if your interests lie elsewhere, it can be a challenge to keep up. A little commonsense scheduling goes a long way, though. Record your favorite programs and watch or listen at night when you’re tired. Then find an hour a day when you are fresh and devote it to more focused study. An hour-long television show has 15-20 minutes of commercials. You can bank that much study time by hitting fast forward.
#6—Set realistic objectives. Get some professional help and a thorough financial checkup so you can set sane targets. With those in place, you can build a realistic plan. The sooner you go through this exercise, the less painful it will be to make any necessary lifestyle adjustments.
#7—Get a grip on your expenses. Investments appreciate (at least that’s the plan). Cars, televisions, and most other stuff depreciate.
Some years ago I read that around 90% of top of the line Lexuses and Mercedes were financed. I live in a community where most of the homes have three-car garages. I shake my head as I drive down the street in my Toyota and see three luxury cars in a garage. I wonder how many of them are financed. It’s easy to have well over $150,000 invested in rapidly depreciating automobiles. With so many long-term auto loans available today, it’s also easy to owe more than the car is worth fairly quickly. Once you get on that treadmill, it’s hard to get off.
All cars are not created equal. I’ve owned my share of luxury autos and can share from personal experience that a routine oil change can cost 10 times more than it does with a Toyota or the like. Is the added prestige of a luxury automobile really worth the extra cost?
#8—Put yourself first. Another common way to blow your nest egg is to spend too much money on others. Your family should not expect you to support them in adulthood, pay for your grandchildren’s college education, or help with major purchases. Take care of yourself and your spouse before anyone else. In time, your family will come to appreciate your self-sufficiency. If not, too bad.
#9—Take advantage of free money. I cannot fathom why such a large percentage of workers with 401(k)s do not maximize their contributions. In addition to the tax benefits, many employers match a percentage of those contributions; it’s free money.
If your employer doesn’t offer a 401(k), maximize your IRA contributions. And if you’re over age 50, don’t forget the catch-up provisions that allow you to save even more. This is low-hanging fruit, so run and grab as much of it as you can.
Retiring rich requires a series of choices; they are often difficult. A comfortable retirement is not a foregone conclusion, even if you lived comfortably in your working years. Since WWII, we have enjoyed one of the most productive economies the world has ever seen, yet many seniors are broke. When you reach retirement age, you don’t have to be one of them.
Start mapping your own path to a rich retirement by reading Miller’s Money Weekly, our free weekly e-letter where my team and I cover pressing money matters and share unique investment insights for seniors, savers and other income investors—all in plain English.
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The article Straight Talk from Yogi Berra: 9 Ways to Retire Rich was originally published at millers money
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