Could This Move Disrupt Global Markets?

Our team of researchers continues to attempt to identify market strengths and weakness in the US major markets by identifying key, underlying factors of the markets and how they relate to one another.

Recently, we’ve been warning of a potentially explosive bullish move in Metals and our last article highlighted the weakness in the Transportation Index as it relates to the US major markets. 

On November 2, 2017, we warned that the NQ volatility would be excessive and that any move near or below 6200 would likely prompt support to drive prices higher as our Adaptive Dynamic Learning model was showing wide volatility and the potential for rotation moves.

This week, we are attempting to highlight a potential move in Bitcoin that could disrupt the global economy and more traditional investment vehicles.  For the past few years, Bitcoin has been on a terror to the upside.  Recently, a 30% downside price rotation caused a bit of panic in the Crypto world.  This -30% decline was fast and left some people wondering what could happen if something deeper were to happen – where would Crypto’s find a bottom.  From that -30% low, Bitcoin has recovered to previous highs (near $8000) and have stalled – interesting.

While discussing Bitcoin with some associates a while back, I heard rumor that a move to Bitcoin CASH was underway and that Bitcoin would collapse as some point in the near future. The people I was meeting with were very well connected in this field and were warning me to alert me in case I had any Bitcoin holdings (which I do).  I found it interesting that these people were moving into the Bitcoin CASH market as fast as they could.  What did they know that I didn’t know and how could any potential Bitcoin blowout drive the global markets?

Panic breeds fear and fear drives the markets (fear or greed).  If Bitcoin were to increase volatility beyond the most recent move (-30% in 4 days) – what could happen to the Crypto markets if a bubble collapse or fundamental collapse happened?

How would the major markets react to a Crypto market collapse that destroyed billions in capital?  For this, we try to rely on our modeling systems and our understanding of the major markets.  Let’s get started by looking at the NASDAQ with two modeling systems (the Fibonacci Price Modeling System and the Adaptive Dynamic Learning system).

This first chart is a Daily Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) model representation of what this modeling system believes will be the highest probability outcome of price going forward 20 days.  Notice that we are asking it to show use what it believes will happen from last week’s trading activity (ignoring anything prior).  This provides us the most recent and relevant data to review.

We can see from the “range lines” (the red and green price range levels shown on the chart), that upside price range is rather limited to recent highs whereas downside prices swing lower (to near 6200 and below) rather quickly.  Additionally, the highest probability price moves indicate that we could see some downside price rotation over the Thanksgiving week followed by a retest of recent high price levels throughout the end of November.

This NQ Weekly chart, below, is showing our Fibonacci price modeling system and the fact that we are currently in an extended bullish run that, so far, shows no signs of stalling.  The Fibonacci Price Breach Level (the red line near the right side of the chart) is showing us that we should be paying attention to the 6075 level for any confirmation of a bearish trend reversal.  Notice how that aligns with the blue projected downside support level (projected into future price levels).  Overall, for the NQ or the US majors to show any signs of major weakness, these Fibonacci levels would have to be tested and breached.  Until that happens, expect continued overall moderate bullish price activity.  When it happens, look out below.

The next charts we are going to review are the Metals markets (Gold and Silver).  Currently, an interesting setup is happening with Silver.  It appears to show that volatility in the Silver market will be potentially much greater than the volatility in the Gold market.  This would indicate that Silver would be the metal to watch going into and through the end of this year.  This first chart is showing the ADL modeling system and highlighting the volatility and price predictions that are present in the Silver market.  Pay attention to the facts that ranges and price projections are rather stable till about 15 days out – that’s when we are seeing a massive upside potential in Silver.

This next chart is the Fibonacci Price Modeling system on a Weekly Silver chart.  What is important here is the recent price rotation that has setup the Fibonacci Price Breach trigger to the upside (currently).  This move is telling us that as long as price stays above $16.89 on a Weekly closing price basis, then Silver should attempt to push higher and higher over time.  The projected target levels are $19.50, $20.25 and $21.45.  Notice any similarity in price levels between the Fibonacci analysis and the ADL analysis?  Yes, that $16.89 level is clearly identified as price range support by the ADL modeling system (the red price range expectation lines).

How will this playout in our opinion with Bitcoin potentially rotating lower off this double top while the metals appear to be basing and potentially reacting to fear in the market?  Allow us to explain what we believe will be the most likely pathway forward…

At first, this holiday week in the US, the markets will be quiet and not show many signs of anything.  Just another holiday week in the US with the markets mostly moderately bullish – almost on auto-pilot for the holidays.  Then closing in on the end of November, we could start to see some increased volatility and price rotation in the metals and the US majors.  If Bitcoin has moved by this time, we would expect that it would be setting up a rotational low above the -30% lows recently set.  In other words, Bitcoin would likely fall 8~15% on rotation, then stall before attempting any further downside moves.

By the end of November, we expect the US markets to have begun a price pattern formation that indicates sideways/stalling price activity moving into the end of this year.  This ADL Daily ES Chart clearly shows what is predicted going forward 20 days with price rotating near current highs for a few days before settling lower (near 2540~2550 through early Christmas 2017).  The ADL projected highs are not much higher than recent high price levels, therefore we do not expect the ES to attempt to push much higher than 2595 in the immediate future.  It might try to test this level or rotate a bit higher as a washout high, but our analysis shows that prices should be settling into complacency for the next week or two while settling near the lower range of recent price activity.

What you should take away from this analysis is the following : don’t expect any massive upside moves between now and the end of the year that last longer than a few days.  Don’t expect the markets to rocket higher unless there is some unexpected positive news from somewhere that changes the current expectations.  Expect Silver to begin to move higher in early December as well as expect Gold to follow Silver.  We believe Silver is the metal to watch as it will likely be the most volatile and drive the metals move.  Expect the major markets to be quiet through the Thanksgiving week with a potential for moderate bullish price activity before settling into a complacent retracement mode through the end of November and early December.

If Bitcoin does what we expect by creating a rotational lower price breakout setup from recent highs, we’ll know within a week or two.  If this $8000 level holds as resistance, then we will clearly see Bitcoin rotate into a defensive market pattern (a flag formation or some other harmonic pattern above support).  The US majors will likely follow this move as a broader fear could begin gripping the markets.

Lastly, as we mentioned last week, pay very close attention to the Transportation Index and it’s ability to find/hold support.  Unless the Transportation index finds some level of support and begins a new bullish trend, we could be in for a more dramatic move early next year.  Our last article clearly laid out our concerns regarding the Transportation Index and the broader market cycles.  All of our analysis should be taken as segments of a much larger market picture.  We are setting up for an interesting holiday season where the market could turn in an instant on fear or news of some global event (like a Bitcoin collapse).  The volatility we are seeing our modeling systems predict is increasing (especially in the Silver market over the next few weeks).  We could be headed for a bumpy ride with a classic top formation setting up.

Overall, protect your investments and your long positions.  Many people will be away from their PCs and away from the markets over the holidays.  It is important that you understand the risks that continue to play out in the markets.  Pay attention to market sectors that are at risk of showing us greater fear or weakness in the major markets.  Pay attention to these increases in volatility and price rotation.  Most of all, pay attention to the market’s failure to move higher over this holiday season because we should be traditionally expecting the Christmas Rally to push equities moderately higher at this time.

Should we see any more clear signs of weakness or market rotation, you will know about it with our regular updates to the public.  If you want to know how Acitve Trading Partners can assist you in staying up to day with the market cycles and analysis, then visit the Active Trading Partners and learn how we can assist you with detailed market research, daily updates, trading signals and more.

We are dedicated to helping you achieve success in the markets and do our best to make sure you are prepared for any future market moves.  See how we can assist you now and in 2018 to achieve greater success.

Chris Vermeulen

Engineering Regular Income and Profits from Your Trading

Today's article is from my trading partner, Brian McAboy of Inside Out Trading.  Brian is a retired engineer and has a rather unconventional yet very effective approach to helping people become successful traders.  He's been helping traders for over 11 years, so he's been around long enough to know what works and what doesn't.

Take just a minute for this.  You'll be glad you did.

There are two very specific success traits that pertain to you and your trading. The first one is absolutely necessary for you to give yourself a reasonable chance of making it. And the second one is to keep you from wasting tons of time, money and psychological capital

Now as you know, trading is not a "get rich quick" kind of activity. This is NOT a place where anyone off the street can stroll in, grab a system, start throwing money at the markets and live happily ever after. Just doesn't work like that

Trading IS a true profession, a skill based occupation, and not a place for the squeamish or weak of heart. So for a person to expect to be "living the lifestyle" overnight is just not realistic. But the question then becomes, "How long should it realistically take?"

Too many traders let things go way too long in a less than satisfactory state

They simply let time to continue to pass, doing things generally the same way they have been for months on end, with the same disappointing results, well beyond what is really a reasonable time to allow

You see, there are generally two aspects of patience when it comes to trading:

1. You have to be patient enough for things happen, for your trading to develop and mature.
2. The other side of patience is knowing when you've reached a point where it's pretty obvious that your current approach just isn't working and it's time to stop, reassess, and change course.

"How long should it take?" is a common question, and the real answer is that you can get to the point of real, business like, reliable consistent profits in 3 to 6 months, a year at the outside

If it's taking YEARS, then something is wrong and you're really just spinning your wheels, wasting time and money and cheating yourself out of the success that you should be enjoying. There is also a huge personal cost to letting things take longer than they should

One trader expressed this very well,

"I've been trading futures for about 9 years now with inconsistent results.  I've made the usual mistakes, buying too many courses, focusing on the results not the process and being too impatient to trade to wait for valid setups. 

After listening to your video this weekend where you make the distinction between being patient in the beginning and giving yourself time, and beyond a certain point (3 - 6months) considering that it may be time to be impatient about your progress, this made me realize I've been allowing myself to coast for far too long, and that's impacted my confidence and the belief that I can turn trading into a business with a consistent return." 

Complacency, NOT being impatient when it's time to, is one of the biggest cost centers many traders have

There's the financial cost of missed profits and unnecessary losses, plus the opportunity costs of not enjoying the fruits of your time being spent on other matters of course, but she noted the personal, psychological cost as well

The thing is, you chose trading so that you could have freedom, financial and time freedom, not a J-O-B. You wanted trading to be a truly enjoyable activity that generates income and wealth and provides security and peace of mind

If you've been trading for more than a year, and your trading is not where you want it to be, nor is it really even close, and looking at the trajectory that you're now on, it doesn't look like you're going to get there anytime soon, then perhaps it's time to consider a different approach. That's why I suggest that you check out the training masterclass I created for you

Here are the details on the masterclass,

 "Rewrite Your Trading Story"

How to become a confident, consistent and profitable trader in 60 days or less even if you've never had a profitable month.

Here's what you will discover....

• The "Little 3" and the "Big 3" and Why the Wrong Focus Will Have You Chasing Profits Forever
• "The Gap" and How It Keeps Traders Jumping From One System to the Next, Without Ever Realizing The 'Easy Consistent Profits' Promised by the System Sellers
• One Specific 'Hidden' Lie Traders Tell Themselves That Continually Drains Your Time, Capital and Confidence
• Why Self Sabotage Goes On For YEARS For Most Traders, And How To Permanently Eliminate It From Your Trading
• The Four Stage Process To Make YOUR Trading Profitable And Predictable

Click here to register and move the needle in your trading

See you in the markets!
Brian McAboy
Trading Business Coach

Positioning for “Swan Type” Disasters

Recently, the US, China and portions of SE Asia have been hit by massive hurricanes and cyclones. As investors, it is often difficult to understand the mechanics of how these types of disasters result in opportunities while thousands are attempting to rebuild and survive. Yet, as investors, it is our job to prepare for these outcomes and attempt to foresee risk and opportunities.

Over the weekend, we expecting Hurricane Irma to hit Florida and most of the South US, one should be asking the question, “How will this drive the markets over the next few weeks/months?” Let’s explore this question with some hard data and analysis.

US Population Density

The population in the South Eastern US is rather dense. There are also a number of key economic locations that could be disrupted if the storms starts to drift eastward.

Economic Output by Region

Consider that the South Eastern US represents a minimum of 1.6~2.2% annual GDP output.

When one considers the amount of destruction, disruption and economic decline that could be the immediate result of disasters such as hurricanes, one has to think about how the global markets will react to this level and type of event?

In comparison to the other geographic regions of the US, the South Eastern portion of the US still represents a substantially large portion of annual economic output/activity.

A massive disruption as well as asset revaluation event could cause a “blip” in the US GDP representing at least 2~3 tenths of a percent and could result in hundreds of billions in actual losses, economic output losses and infrastructure destruction.

Because of this, and other potential future events, we are concerned that the US markets may be headed for a correction event or bear market event in the near future. In the past, we have attempted to illustrate this potential by highlighting cycle events, key market breakouts and trends and, most recently, highlighted the 3-7-10 year cycle structures that play out in all markets. Now, we are setting up for an event that may unfold over the next 30~90 days as a “swan type event” that few are preparing for.

The US Dollar continues to slide. Our analysis showed that $92 was key support. Recently this level has been broken and we are concerned that the US Dollar may continue to slide lower. Overall, in terms of global competition, this may not be a tremendous hit. But in terms of purchasing power and the existing dominance of the US Dollar for trade, we could see some pressure in other areas.

In relation, our custom China/SE Asia Index is pushing toward the upward range of our price channel and could rotate lower on a Swan-type event (like a debt issue or political issue).

Oil is breaking downward as these global events and the transition to slower consumption continues to drive supply higher and higher. We could continue to see Oil based “Mini Swan Events” in countries that are dependent on Oil prices and income to support their economies.

US Banking and Insurance firms are sure to take increased risks with these types of events. As borrowers are displaced because of a “Swan type Event” and refocus on immediate needs/issues, delinquencies in mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and others will spike (quickly). This becomes a matter of survival (much like after the 2009 Credit Market Crisis) where people made choices to support immediate needs and not long term credit needs.

Metals, of course, have already started to make a move higher because of the risk of these events and global risks. Although, we still believe a short-term move lower (almost like a relief move) will play out over the next few weeks that will be the opportunity we have been waiting for. This move will allow investors to position metals trades for the potential longer term Swan event outcomes.

Lastly, our US Custom Index is continuing to provide a much clearer and defined picture of the Head-n-Shoulders formation that has us fixated on the potential of our VIX Spike dates, major cycle events, key rotations and, now, these potentially massive “Swan type events” to correlate into almost a Super-Swan Event. These hurricanes are passing events – they go away eventually. An economic event is something that takes much longer to resolve and restore. Much like the 2009 Credit Market Crisis, the results of a Swan type event can be long lasting and can result in massive asset revaluation.

We’re not saying the global markets are going to fall into another 2009 type event, but we are saying that our analysis is showing that “some type of event is setting up and IF it turned into a Super Swan event, then YOU (the investor) need to be aware of this potential”. If it simply turns into a correction or minor downturn, then you still need to be aware of this potential so you can profit from it – either way.

What will it take to setup and execute a series of trades that help protect against this type of possible Swan Event?

Join Active Trading Partners [visit here] today to learn more and follow our daily research reports to assist you in preparing for just this type of event. There is not a lot of time left before these potential events begin to play out. ATP will assist you by finding great trading opportunities and keeping you informed of the markets setups and potential moves/cycles.

Are you ready for the next Super-Swan Event? If not, join Active Trading Partners today.

Could There Be a Reversal Coming to the Major U.S. Markets?

Technically speaking, this week could be very important for the major U.S. equity markets. There is an appearance of a “TOPPING PATTERN” forming. I am now awaiting confirmation by the actions of the equity markets, this week. Expect downward pressure beginning this month of August of 2017.

The Only Chart You Need To See!

There is currently limited upside potential in the SPX relative to potential downside for the months of August, September and the early part of October 2017.

There are signs for the short, intermediate and longer term trends returning for the best six months of trading officially inaugurated in November of 2017! This is the timing framework when ‘The Next Runaway Leg Up In The Stock Market Will Resume.’

In last weeks’ market action as the profit taking rotation out of the high-tech sector rotated into the Dow Industrials, it reflected

a more defensive approach while being invested in “Blue Chips” during which time it achieved a new high. Sector rotation increased especially noticeable in the transports and technology sectors that were leading the markets higher. If they continue lower, more sectors will join the decline. I am expecting a coming pop in the VIX on Aug 4, Aug 23, Sept 11 or 12 and finally Sept 28 or 29. 2017. There was a flight to safety in the Yen as well as a strengthening of the price of Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and WTI Crude Oil.

An Unusual Anomaly

Over the past couple of weeks, there was this unusual Anomaly which occurred, as you can see in the chart below. It now makes me more cautious about our long understanding of “risk interconnectivity”.

How can the equity, gold, silver, crude oil and bitcoin markets ALL go HIGHER together?

Tune in every morning for my video analysis and market forecasts at The Gold & Oil Guy to know where the main ‘asset classes’ are headed tomorrow, this week, and next month.

In short, the major equities trend remains to the upside but its likely to take shape in a slow grinding process with downward pressure starting in August fora couple months.

Be sure to follow my daily pre-market video forecasts and ETF trades by visiting here at The Gold and Oil Guy

Chris Vermeulen

Carley Garner's "Higher Probability Commodity Trading"

Carley Garner's new book "Higher Probability Commodity Trading" takes readers on an unprecedented journey through the treacherous commodity markets; shedding light on topics rarely discussed in trading literature from a unique perspective, with the intention of increasing the odds of success for market participants.

In its quest to guide traders through the process of commodity market analysis, strategy development, and risk management, Higher Probability Commodity Trading discusses several alternative market concepts and unconventional views such as option selling tactics, hedging futures positions with options, and combining the practice of fundamental, technical, seasonal, and sentiment analysis to gauge market price changes.

Carley, is a frequent contributor of commodity market analysis to CNBC's Mad Money TV show hosted by Jim Cramer. She has also been a futures and options broker, where for over a decade she has had a front row seat to the victories and defeats the commodity markets deal to traders.

Garner has a knack for portraying complex commodity trading concepts, in an easy-to-read and entertaining format. Readers of Higher Probability Commodity Trading are sure to walk away with a better understanding of the futures and options market, but more importantly with the benefit of years of market lessons learned without the expensive lessons.

Get Higher Probability Commodity Trading on Amazon....Get it Here!

It Can’t Wait Any Longer – It's Deja Vu in the Markets

The stock market tends to repeat itself on a regular basis. Why? Because it moves mainly based on the emotions of market participants, with the exception of extreme times when the masses are moving the market with extreme fear or greed, at which point they are flooding the market with buy or sell orders to create a final pop or drop in the market just before a major market reversal.

As with everything in the universe, everything moves in cycles, periods of expansion and contraction, and there are regular wave like patterns that happen on a regular basis no matter the time frame one is reviewing on a stock chart.

Here are three charts, each showing a similar price pattern of extreme washout lows, followed by roughly a 1 1/2 month rally taking investors on a roller coaster ride from fear and complete panic to greedy "know it alls". In short [no pun intended] U.S. large cap stocks look and feel toppy here. I feel a correction is likely to take place any day now, and the big question is “how much will the stock market pullback? Will it be another 4-5% correction similar to the chart examples above? Or will it be something larger 8-15% correction?

Chris Vermeulen


Get my Daily Newsletter and Trade Signals Right Here

Four Trading Strategies That Work

If you have been following us this year you already know that our trading partner Chris Vermeulen has been spot on in 2016 and has helped our readers make profitable trade after profitable trade this year. We have followed and worked with many traders over the years so we know what trading information is useful and what is just junk information.

Chris' connects with most readers through his complimentary stock trading and education newsletter which includes simple trading strategies to use with stocks, options, futures or forex.

Get Chris' newsletter "The Four Trading Strategies That Work" right HERE!

We hope you enjoy the free content and learning from some new tips and tricks for your own trading toolbox. To further add value Chris has put together a way for you to learn some of his trading strategies which cover stocks, options, futures and forex.

Bookmark this link since you can only select one free trading strategy at a time when you optin to the form on this special webpage below. But I should note, if you want a second or third strategy you just need to revisit the optin page, optin, and select another strategy.

These strategies are only available for a couple days then Chris takes them down so click the link below and optin to be presented with the four trading strategies.

Click here to get the free "Four Trading Strategies That Work"


See you in the markets.
Ray's Stock World

Tonights Free Webinar: How to Spot Big Market Reversals in Advance and Beat Wall Street Silly

Thinking about living a ‘dream lifestyle’ is tough for a lot of traders right now, because they’re getting their faces ripped off. And there’s no doubt, these conditions are some of the craziest that we’ve ever seen. Stocks were down 9% in January, that’s the worst market performance in history.

Predictably, some expected the world to end and loaded up on the short side. Of course, then the market reversed in February and is already up 1.4%. Take a look at the Nasdaq roller coaster that traders just rode for nasty losses or pretty awesome gains.

It’s clear that the bulls got destroyed in January, and then bears gave back all of their profits and then some in February. In other words, both sides got creamed. Classic Wall Street shenanigans, right? In case you were wondering, the markets are designed to deliver maximum pain to the most traders possible. How would you like to turn the tables and finally beat those guys at their own game?

Well, on Tuesday, March 1st at 7pm Central, John Carter is going to show you why his account is up 48% already this year.

For starters, he’ll show you the signal that told him to get short the NQ on the way down, and then buy for the ride back up. As you can imagine, spotting those kinds of reversals in advance would give you an almost unfair advantage. Well, it’s easier than you think and you don’t have to be a psychic. What John is doing isn’t magic. He is just trading simple setups that have passed the test of time.

If you’re getting your clock cleaned by this volatility, we can all relate. It took John years to figure this stuff out. If you join him this Tuesday, March 1st at 7 pm Central, he’ll show you how to use a simple indicator to spot major reversals and piggyback your trades on what the biggest Wall Street institutions are doing. He’ll cover that and a whole lot more.

And let’s take advantage of this "once in a decade" volatility. The next twelve months could offer the best opportunity to rapidly grow your accounts since the 2008 crash. Don’t buy into the myth that volatility automatically means high risk. John will show you how to strictly manage risk and still position your account for major gains.

Put this special webinar on your calendar....Sign Up Right Here!

See you Tuesday.
Ray's Stock World

P.S.   John gave us a video primer earlier in the week......Watch That Here



Get John's latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Free Video Series: Enjoy all of John Carters Options Videos.....Before it's to Late

In 2014 our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options changed the way traders look at trading options with his free and easy to understand videos and webinars that taught all of us how to put his methods to work.

In February John is preparing to do it all again by bringing us a new series and most likely all of his current videos will be taken offline. So we want to make sure you get to watch them all while you can.

Just click on the titles to access videos......

    My Favorite ways to Trade Options on ETF’s

    What the Market Makers Don’t Want You to Know

    High Frequency Trading….the effect the Rise of the Machines has on ...

    What's Behind the BIG Trade, How to Grow a Small Account into a Big...

Make sure to also get John's free eBook "Understanding Options" > Just Click Here

See you in the markets!

Ray's Stock World

What's the One Thing Standing in the Way of Your Success?

Our trading partners at Netpicks have just sent over their new system they are going to use in 2015 and this looks good. What if you could get your hands on one simple indicator that literally has doubled and in some cases tripled the profitability of a forex trading system? What if it came without any out of pocket to you?

No changes - the exact same trading system but adding this one simple indicator literally wiped out numerous losing trades and ensured a much higher winning percentage.

That has done wonders for the bottom line of this system and literally it could have the same impact on any trading system you are working with now or have considered.

You really need to pick this up today. You can get the full scoop....Just Click Here

Double or Even Triple Your Profits
Simply look at your chart and know instantly when to trade and when to pass on any trade, any trading system

Decrease Trading, Work Less, Keep More
By learning to eliminate trades you'll spend less in commissions, have more free time and prevent those costly mistakes

Works with Ease on Any Trading System
You'll be able to implement the Dynamic Profit Detector with ease on your chart and easily determine the best trades...and those to avoid. Forex? Futures? Stocks? ETFs? YES!

There are zero obligations or costs. That's right, it's free. It simply takes a few minutes to download and install and you'll see the markets completely differently than you have before.

Who wouldn't want to have a shot at doubling or tripling success? I already grabbed mine, so take advantage while it's available.

Download the "Dynamic Swing Trader" now

See you in the markets,
Ray's Stock World



Get our latest FREE eBooK "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here

Why the World Needs the US Economy to Struggle

By John Mauldin

The headlines this morning talk about the US dollar hitting an 11-year high. I have been saying for years that the dollar is going to go higher than anyone can imagine. This trade is just in the early innings. And the repercussions will be dramatic, not only for emerging markets that have financed projects in dollars, but also for commodities and energy, gold, and a variety of other investments. The world is at the doorstep of a new era of volatility and currency wars.

In this week’s letter, my associate Worth Wray explores what a rising dollar means for emerging markets and what central banks are likely to do in response. Can they smooth the ride, or will it be the world’s scariest roller coaster? This letter will print long because of the number of fabulous charts Worth provides. I might make a brief comment or two at the end. Here’s Worth.

On the Verge of a Disaster… or a Miracle

By Worth Wray
Twenty years after the first divergence induced currency crisis of the 1990s, commodity prices are tumbling, the US dollar is rallying, and externally fragile emerging markets are reliving the horrors of their not so distant past. Except, this time, major economies like the United States, the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, Japan, and the People’s Republic of China may not be able to side step the ensuing contagion.

With 2014 now behind us, I want to focus this week's letter on what may prove to be the most important global macro pressure points in the coming year(s):

• The growing divergence among the world’s most important central banks
• The ongoing collapse in oil and other commodity prices as a function of excess supply and/or weakening global demand
• The rise of the US dollar, driven by divergence and risk aversion… and the squeeze it’s putting on the multi-trillion-dollar carry trade into emerging markets
• The vicious slide in emerging-market currencies
• The rising risk of 1990s style contagion and financial shocks
• And what, if anything, can avert the next global financial crisis

But first, let me tell you a story.

As some of you already know, I was born and raised in Baton Rouge, Louisiana – an old Southern city built on a bluff above the Mississippi River. It’s about an hour northwest of New Orleans – you can see it circled on the map below.

Given its inland position, Baton Rouge is fairly insulated from the fiercest impact of coastal storms; but hurricane season still tends to be the most stressful time of year. Our oak-covered neighborhoods and low-lying swamplands are vulnerable to the high winds and flood rains that can accompany a direct hit – not to mention the violent tornadoes that occasionally occur in the unpredictable northeastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone zone.

These storms don’t hit us often, but locals recall a handful of hurricanes that dealt heavy blows to the area over the years. And it goes without saying that the damage from any storm gets dramatically worse the closer you get to the Gulf of Mexico. Entire towns along the Gulf Coast have been swallowed up and swept away over the years by catastrophic storms like Camille (1969), Andrew (1994), and more recently Katrina (2005).

Twelve years ago, my father and I found ourselves in the path of such a storm.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Lili was “supposed” to make landfall as a relatively weak storm. Just another named hurricane for the record books that would soon fade from our collective memory… or so we thought.

At 10:00 PM on Tuesday, October 1, 2002, Lili was a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. Routine hurricane season stuff.



I went to sleep that night expecting a little rain and few uneventful days home from school; but when I woke up on Wednesday, October 2, I was shocked to see Lili develop an incredibly well articulated eye wall and grow more powerful by the hour – from 110 mph at 7:00 AM that morning to 135 mph at 1:00 PM and finally to 145 mph at 10 PM that night.

I remember the nervous look on my dad’s face that night as the two of us boarded up our doors and windows. A little earlier that evening, one of his local government contacts shared that, behind closed doors, state and local officials were expecting “mass casualties” from Morgan City (on the coast) to Baton Rouge… but it was already too late to order an evacuation so far inland. Given the mild forecasts, few were prepared for a major hurricane; and at that point in the day, making a public announcement would do little more than spark a panic. The best we could do was hunker down and pray.

This was the last advisory I saw before my head hit the pillow that night: Lili had strengthened to a strong Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 145 mph, reported gusts above 210 mph, and the very real possibility of making landfall as a merciless Category 5. If you look at the Saffir Simpson hurricane scale, there’s a reason the first word you see next to Category 4 and 5 storms is catastrophic.

These storms are real killers.



Expecting to wake up early the next morning to sounds of thunder, pounding rain, and the eerie whistle of gale-force winds – or worse, I went to sleep Wednesday night with this image swirling through my mind:



But when I woke, I was shocked once more to learn that Lili – for reasons no one had anticipated – had all but died in the night and made landfall that morning as a small Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of only 90 miles per hour. In less than twelve hours, it had sharply decelerated from what could easily have been one of the most catastrophic storms on record to an inconvenience for most inland communities. Sure, it inflicted some damage along the coast – tearing up marshlands, knocking down power lines, blowing over trees, and flooding homes – but a Category 4 or 5 storm would have swallowed those areas whole.

As far as I know, there was no precedent in the Gulf of Mexico – or anywhere in the world – for Lili’s sudden death. It baffled even the most experienced meteorologists and left us all scratching our heads. Some people talked of miracles; others insisted there had to be a logical explanation. I imagine there’s some truth to both ideas.

While the press coverage surrounding Lili’s remarkable weakening has largely faded into obscurity, I was able to find one surviving article from USA Today that captures the confusion in the storm’s aftermath:

“Scientists Don’t Know Yet Why Lili Suddenly Collapsed.”

Hurricane Lili showed forecasters there is still a lot they don't know about hurricane intensity. Lili weakened in the hours before landfall Thursday as rapidly as it had strengthened into a ferocious storm the day before. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center in Miami had hinted as early as Monday that Lili could rev up into a dangerous hurricane over the extraordinarily warm Gulf of Mexico, though they were surprised to see it grow so strong so quickly. But Lili's quick demise … had them admitting they didn't know what had happened…. National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield agrees. At a loss to explain Lili's fluctuations, he says, “A lot of Ph.D.s will be written about this.”

We still don’t have a definitive answer, but three theories emerged in the immediate aftermath:

1) Dry air was pulled into the storm and ate away at its moisture sucking core;

2) Winds aloft increased across the storm, creating wind shear and tipping the delicate balance that keeps intense storms going;

3) Water cooler than the 80° necessary to sustain a hurricane sapped Lili's strength when it moved over the same part of the north central Gulf of Mexico that had been churned up by a smaller hurricane, Isadore, a week earlier.

Regardless of why it happened, I learned something that day that will stay with me for the rest of my life: Even when a disastrous course of events is set in motion, disaster does not always strike. Surprises happen. Even miracles. Forecasts are often wrong – but it always pays to prepare.

Let me explain…..

Boom & Gloom

Just before Halloween, I wrote a letter (“A Scary Story for Emerging Markets”) explaining that the widening gap in economic activity among the United States, Japan, and the Eurozone was starting to demand a dangerous divergence in monetary policy.

Within a matter of days, the FOMC announced the end of its QE3 program... and then the Bank of Japan shocked the world, announcing a massive expansion in its own asset purchases timed to coincide with the government pension fund’s announcement that it was getting out of JGBs and into global equities.



Just as I had feared, the US dollar and Japanese yen were breaking out in opposite directions on real policy action, as Mario Draghi meanwhile continued to talk the euro down with the threat of future action. This may seem like a trivial shift in global FX markets, but it may have been the most important development we have seen since the global crisis peaked in 2008.



Since then, global economics has been a story of boom, gloom, and doom, as Marc Faber likes to say. We’re seeing a boom in US economic activity (or as much of a boom as you can expect with a massive debt overhang); a gloomy slowdown and slide toward deflation across Europe and China, along with the still-likely failure of Abenomics in Japan and renewed signs of FX contagion in emerging markets; and doom in commodities markets, particularly oil.

I’ve shared this next chart before, but it’s worth an update. Those of us who watch the US dollar were not surprised by the collapse in oil prices, because the dollar’s surge was already telling us something about global demand.



What did surprise a lot of economists (myself included) was the breakdown within OPEC, particularly Saudi Arabia’s willingness to accept whatever price the market offered in order to protect its market share.

Conspiracy theories aside as to whether OPEC’s move constitutes an anti-American trade war against US shale producers or a pro-American squeeze on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, it’s already putting a serious squeeze on Texas oil men, Russian “oiligarchs,” and oilexporting emerging markets.

We’ll revisit the oil shock in a bit, but for now let’s get back to the US dollar.

To continue reading this article from Thoughts from the Frontline – a free weekly publication by John Mauldin, renowned financial expert, best-selling author, and Chairman of Mauldin Economics – please click here.

The article Why the World Needs the US Economy to Struggle was originally published at mauldin economics

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Gold: Time to Prepare for Big Gains?

By Casey Research

Years of a severe downturn in the gold market have left very few bulls to speak out in favor of the yellow metal. Here are some positive opinions on the future of the precious metal, from the recently concluded Casey Research Fall Summit.

David Tice, founder of the Prudent Bear Fund, believes we are heading for a “global currency reset” that will reduce the role of the dollar in global trade. Central banks, he says, don’t possess all the gold they claim to, and the unwinding of the paper gold market probably isn’t far down the road—it could even ignite the next major crisis.

The paper gold market (for example, exchange-traded funds like GLD) has massive leverage, with a ratio of 90:1 or 100:1 of paper claims on gold bullion. If only a small fraction of owners convert their paper to physical gold, says Tice, it will create a “no bid” price environment and cause the price of gold to explode.
He believes that once the paper gold market collapses, gold will be priced on the basis of supply/demand for the physical metal—which means it could be headed for $3,000 to $8,000 per ounce.

Ed Steer, editor of Casey Research’s popular e-letter Gold and Silver Daily, is equally bullish on gold… in the long term, because right now, he believes the gold market to be rigged: “Central banks intervene; that’s what they do.”

They control not only gold, but also silver, platinum, palladium, copper, and oil. He says there are two possible reasons that Germany hasn’t gotten its gold back that it had stored in the U.S. — either the gold doesn’t exist or there’s so much paper written against it that it can’t be moved for collateral reasons.

While there’s not much an investor can do about gold manipulation, Steer believes that the manipulators’ schemes will blow up in their faces sooner than later.

Summit regular Rick Rule, chairman of Sprott US Holdings, isn’t worried about the bear market in gold.
“What matters is your response to the bear market,” he says. “If you have the wits, courage, knowledge, and cash to take advantage of them, bear markets are great.”

He’s keeping his eyes peeled on junior gold mining stocks, which, he says, are hugely attractive right now.
“Our market has fallen by 75% in three years. That means it’s 75% more attractive than in 2010, when we were all in love with it. Within a few years, we’ll look back on today’s low prices as the good old days.”
Louis James, chief investment strategist of Casey’s Metals & Mining division, also welcomes the opportunities to buy low that the current slump in gold prices provides.

He personally owns stock of three of the junior miners present in the Map Room at the Casey Fall Summit. All three of them have exceptionally high-grade projects that are delivering what they promised.

To get all of Louis James’ stock picks (and those of the other speakers), as well as every single presentation of the Summit, order your 26+-hour Summit Audio Collection now. It’s available in CD and/or MP3 format. Learn more here.

The article Gold: Time to Prepare for Big Gains? was originally published at casey research

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Good Reason for Doom and Gloom

By Doug French, Contributing Editor

Predicting the future, like getting old, ain’t for sissies. Questioning the bull market is even more treacherous.
Howard Gold, writing for MarketWatch, makes fun of seers who made what he calls “the four worst predictions to gain traction over the past few years.”

Gold says the last six years have been a disaster for those who stayed out of the stock market. He claims there’s a bull market in doom and gloom, referring to a column by his colleague Chuck Jaffe, who points out, “The fortune-tellers … know that the more outrageous the prediction, the more attention they get. They can highlight any forecasts they get right, knowing that their misfires are forgotten quickly. Thus, calamity and catastrophe sells. Right now, it’s a bull market for bearish forecasts.”

If such a bull market in doom were really happening, the market wouldn’t be hitting all-time highs. Besides, no one ever went broke being out of the market.

But more importantly, there is a very good reason people respond to gloomy forecasts. Behavioral economics pioneer and 2002 Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman explains in his bestseller Thinking, Fast and Slow that when people compare losses and gains, they weigh losses more heavily. There’s an evolutionary reason for this: “Organisms that treat threats as more urgent than opportunities have a better chance to survive and reproduce,” Kahneman explains.

Most people, when given the opportunity to win $150 or lose $100 on a coin flip, decline the bet because the fear of losing $100 is more intense than the hope of gaining $150. Kahneman writes that the typical loss aversion ratio seen in most experiments is 1.5 to 2.5. Professional stock traders have much higher tolerance for risk, but most people investing their retirement accounts are not pros and have little fortitude for losses.

The average Joe can’t just sit tight while his retirement account drops 40%. He’s not wired that way. His retirement savings represent safety, and a market crash is the modern equivalent of a flood, a bear, or a warring tribe. When stocks start falling, survival mode kicks in. He or she sells and runs for cover.
So when someone makes a compelling case that stocks might crash, the average person rightly listens. Otherwise they don’t get any sleep.

Gloomy Forecasts

Economist and financial newsletter writer Harry Dent predicted the DJIA would crash to 3,000 and told investors to bail out between early 2012 and late 2013. Some people likely took him up on it. In July 2010, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave fame predicted the DJIA would fall to well below 1,000 over the ensuing five or six years.

“I’m saying: ‘Winter is coming. Buy a coat,’” Prechter told the New York Times. “Other people are advising people to stay naked. If I’m wrong, you’re not hurt. If they’re wrong, you’re dead. It’s pretty benign advice to opt for safety for a while.”

While Prechter sees massive deflation on the horizon, Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, says Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation is on the way. Gold calls this “the single worst prediction of the past five years.” Gold calls Faber wacky for telling Bloomberg in 2009:

I am 100% sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation. Not tomorrow, but the problem with the government debt growing so much is that when the time will come and the Fed should increase interest rates, they’ll be very reluctant to do so and so inflation will start to accelerate.

Peter Schiff’s call for $5,000/oz gold also has Mr. Gold laughing. Schiff sees the Fed printing more to stimulate the economy, which will send the yellow metal soaring.

“Back in the real world,” sneers Gold, “new Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen is actually winding down the Fed’s extra bond buying (quantitative easing, or QE), and she’s on pace to finish by fall.”

Europe’s economic problems had establishment news outlets like The Economist saying in November 2011, the euro “could break up within weeks.” President Obama’s former chief economist, Austan Goolsbee, said “there probably isn’t” any way to hold the eurozone together.

And the ultimate establishment voice, Alan Greenspan, told CNBC the divergent cultures using one currency “simply can’t continue to work.”

So it’s not just wackadoodles wearing tinfoil hats missing the mark, as Mr. Gold implies. He writes, “But too many people have lost precious time and a chance to make real money by listening to these fear mongers. They’re probably kicking themselves now, or should be.”

However, nearly all of the gloomy prognostications Gold makes fun of are in response to the actions of central bankers, who have been at least as wrong as anyone else in their predictions.

Big financial-services companies should be kicking themselves for paying Greenspan $100,000 a speech these days. The Maestro reportedly hauled in an $8.5 million advance for his book, The Age of Turbulence. That’s a lot to pay for someone who whiffed on the housing bubble. In 2002, Greenspan said, “Even if a bubble were to develop in a local market, it would not necessarily have implications for the nation as a whole.”

Ben Bernanke, who used to make $200,000 a year, now makes “that in just a few hours speaking to bankers, hedge fund billionaires and leaders of industry,” the New York Times reports. “This year alone, he is poised to make millions of dollars from speaking engagements.”

He hasn’t exactly been an accurate predictor either. In 2005, Ben Bernanke was asked if the housing market was overheated. “Well, I guess I don’t buy your premise,” he replied. “It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.”

Even former Treasury Secretary and ex-New York Fed President Tim Geithner is getting in on the action, receiving $100,000 to $200,000 per talk. Plus he likely received a large advance for his book Stress Test.
Geithner admits he didn’t see the financial crisis coming. In his review of Geithner’s book, Flash Boys author Michael Lewis writes, “The story Geithner goes on to tell blames everyone and no one. The crisis he describes might just as well have been an act of God.”

They Warn for a Reason

Mr. Gold believes that economic catastrophes have natural causes. “Bad things happen in life,” he writes. “Hurricanes and tornadoes destroy communities. Nuclear war and climate change are big long-term dangers. And there will be bear markets and deep recessions in the years ahead.”

Inflation to any degree is not an act of God. Neither are currency nor stock market crashes. Central bankers create these calamities and then ride off into the sunset, earning six-figure speaking fees and multimillion-dollar book deals. The positive reinforcement they receive ensures they’ll repeat the same mistakes over and over again.

Thus, warnings must be issued constantly. Bad things are going to happen to the finances of individuals who aren’t prepared.

It’s not a matter of if, but when. Better scared than sorry.

(Editor’s Note: How quickly a crisis can creep up on you is demonstrated in our Casey Research documentary, Meltdown America. If you haven’t watched it yet, you should. Click here to watch this free video.)

The article Good Reason for Doom and Gloom was originally published at Casey Research

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