Is Silver About to Become the Super Hero of Precious Metals?

If you’ve been following our research, you already know how accurately we’ve been nailing the precious metals price moves. We’ve been calling Gold and Silver accurately since early 2018 and continue to focus a good portion of our efforts in studying these incredible setups. Let’s have a little fun and start with two charts from near July 20, 2019, to help our followers understand what we’ve been expecting, but first, be sure to opt-in to our free market research newsletter.

This first Monthly Silver chart highlights what we believed would be the approximate wave structure of the silver price advance going forward. We did not attempt to accurately time these peaks of valleys, we simply used our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs to allow price to tell us where these peaks may form. From those levels, we used our best “guess” to identify the trough bottoms.

You can see a “Started Here” line near the bottom of this chart. This highlights where we created this chart and where the price was when we first posted it in our research (near $16.39). As of today, the price of Silver is near $18.75 and climbing. We’ve drawn in the missing data on this chart and highlighted the endpoint with a “NOW Here!” message. Once the price of silver breaks above that BLUE Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc, it should rally up to $23 to $25 before finding new resistance.

SILVER WEEKLY CHART

This next Silver Weekly chart was shared with our members near July 25, 2019. Pay very close attention to the arrows we drew on the chart at that time. Guess what the price of Silver actually did after this chart was shared with our readers? Yup, Silver shot up to $19.75 in early September, rotated back to the $17.50 level near the middle of September, and is starting a new rally towards the $23 to $25+ level right now. Does that look familiar to you on this chart (below)?

If this seems amazing to you because we were able to see these moves so accurately into the future and had such a keen insight into the future metals price rotation – don’t be alarmed. Our proprietary research tools are second to none. Our team of researchers have more than 54 years of experience in the markets and have studied almost all types of price theory, technical analysis, and other types of market price, technical, and fundamental analysis techniques. We put our skills to the test every day in order to help our clients find and execute the best trades. If you want to see more of our trading indicators and tools click here.

WHAT NEXT?

What next? Well, the charts above actually show you what’s next. The new charts, below, highlight new charts and new triggers that we believe will drive the current rally in Silver even higher.

Take notice of the HEAVY MAGENTA Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc. The reason we highlight this MAGENTA level and the GREEN level in heavier line drawn is because these levels tend to become the major price inflection points within the arcs. In other words, these levels are where the price will either stall/reverse or breakout of a trend and possibly explode into a bigger price trend. The current Magenta line has just been crossed and the price is already exploding to the upside. If this continues as we expect, this Weekly Custom Metals Index could rally another 25% higher – which would put Gold well above $1800 per ounce and Silver well above $24 per ounce.

SILVER DAILY CHART

This last Silver Daily chart is our Silver Cycle chart. It shows that we expect Silver to reach levels above $23 to $25 before early November 2019. That means Silver could rally 20~25% from current levels within the next 30+ days to reach our current upside targets. Are you ready?

If you’ve missed any of our past analysis, please take a minute to visit our site to learn how our team of skilled researchers can help you find and execute better trades. This move in the metals markets is going to be an incredible opportunity. We’ve been alerting our members of this opportunity for months. If you are not prepared for this move and/or want to learn how we can help you, please review our trade signal Wealth Building Newsletter today.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

NOTICE : Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation, or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research. It is provided for educational purposes only. Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed. Visit our website (The Technical Traders) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Could There Be a Reversal Coming to the Major U.S. Markets?

Technically speaking, this week could be very important for the major U.S. equity markets. There is an appearance of a “TOPPING PATTERN” forming. I am now awaiting confirmation by the actions of the equity markets, this week. Expect downward pressure beginning this month of August of 2017.

The Only Chart You Need To See!

There is currently limited upside potential in the SPX relative to potential downside for the months of August, September and the early part of October 2017.

There are signs for the short, intermediate and longer term trends returning for the best six months of trading officially inaugurated in November of 2017! This is the timing framework when ‘The Next Runaway Leg Up In The Stock Market Will Resume.’

In last weeks’ market action as the profit taking rotation out of the high-tech sector rotated into the Dow Industrials, it reflected

a more defensive approach while being invested in “Blue Chips” during which time it achieved a new high. Sector rotation increased especially noticeable in the transports and technology sectors that were leading the markets higher. If they continue lower, more sectors will join the decline. I am expecting a coming pop in the VIX on Aug 4, Aug 23, Sept 11 or 12 and finally Sept 28 or 29. 2017. There was a flight to safety in the Yen as well as a strengthening of the price of Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and WTI Crude Oil.

An Unusual Anomaly

Over the past couple of weeks, there was this unusual Anomaly which occurred, as you can see in the chart below. It now makes me more cautious about our long understanding of “risk interconnectivity”.

How can the equity, gold, silver, crude oil and bitcoin markets ALL go HIGHER together?

Tune in every morning for my video analysis and market forecasts at The Gold & Oil Guy to know where the main ‘asset classes’ are headed tomorrow, this week, and next month.

In short, the major equities trend remains to the upside but its likely to take shape in a slow grinding process with downward pressure starting in August fora couple months.

Be sure to follow my daily pre-market video forecasts and ETF trades by visiting here at The Gold and Oil Guy

Chris Vermeulen

What the Current Gold Analysis is Telling Us About this Short Term Top

Last night as I was going over my charts and running my end of the day analysis the charts jumped out at me with a trade setup and wanted to share my cycle chart for gold with you. The price chart of gold below is exactly what my cycle analysis told us to look for last week WELL ahead of the today’s news and its things play out I as I feel they will then we stand to make some pretty good money as gold falls in value during the month of April.

If you have been following my work for any length of time then you know big price movements in the market like today (Tuesday, March 29th) based around the FED news ARE NOT and SHOULD NOT be of any surprise. In fact, this charts told use about today’s pop 2 weeks ago and we have been waiting for it ever since. The news is simply the best way to get the masses on board with market moves and gets them on the wrong side of the market before it makes a big move in the other direction, most times… not always, though.

Take a look at this chart below. You’ll see two cycle indicators, one pink and one blue. The pink cycle line is a cluster of various cycles blended together which allows us to view the overall market trend of biased looking forward 5 – 30 days. The blue cycle line is a cluster of much shorter time frame cycles in this tells us when we should expect strong moves in the same direction of the pink cycles or counter trend pullbacks within the trend.

One quick point to note with cycle trading is that the height and depth of the cycle does not mean the price will rise or fall to those levels, it simply tells us if the market has an upward or downward bias. The current cycle analysis for gold along with the current price is telling us that today the short term cycle topped which is the blue line and our main trend cycle is already heading lower. The odds favor gold should roll over and make new multi-month Lows in August.

Gold Trading Conclusion:

In short, we have been waiting for gold to have a technical breakdown and to retrace back up into a short term overbought condition. Today Tuesday, March 29 it looks as though we finally have the setup. Over the next 5 to 15 days I expect gold to drop along with silver and gold stocks. There are many ways to play this through inverse exchange traded funds or short selling gold, silver or gold stocks.

This year and 2017 I believe are going to be incredible years for both traders and investors. If treated correctly, it can be a life changing experience financially for some individuals. Join my pre-market video newsletter and start your day with a hot cup of coffee and my market forecast video.

Sign up right here > www.The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Are Valuations Really Too High?

By John Mauldin

The older I get and the more I research and study, the more convinced I become that one of the more important traits of a good investor or businessman is not simply to come up with the right answer but to be able to ask the right question. The questions we ask often reveal the biases in our thinking, and we are all prone to what behavioral psychologists call confirmation bias: we tend to look for (and thus to see, and to ask about) things that confirm our current thinking.

I try to spend a significant part of my time researching and thinking about things that will tell me why my current belief system is wrong, testing my opinions against the ideas of others, some of whom are genuine outliers.

I have done quite a number of media interviews and question and answer sessions with audiences in the past few months, and one question keeps coming up: “Are valuations too high?” In this week’s letter we’re going to try to look at the various answers (orthodox and not) one could come up with to answer that basic question, and then we’ll look at market conditions in general. This letter may print a little longer as there are going to be a lot of charts.

I am back in Dallas today, getting ready to leave Monday for San Diego and my Strategic Investment Conference. I’m really excited about the array of speakers we have this year. We’re going to share the conference with you in a different way this year. My associate Worth Wray and I are going to do a brief summary of the speakers’ presentations every day and send that out as a short Thoughts from the Frontline for four days running. Plus, for those who are interested in my more immediate reactions, I suggest you follow me on Twitter. There are still a few spots available at the conference, as we have expanded the venue, and if you would like to see who is speaking or maybe decide to show up at the last minute (which you should), just follow this link. Now let’s jump into the letter.

Take It to the Limit

First, let’s examine three ways to look at stock market valuations for the S&P 500. The first is the Shiller P/E ratio, which is a ten year smoothed curve that in theory takes away some of the volatility caused by recessions. If this metric is your standard, I think you would conclude that stocks are expensive and getting close to the danger zone, if not already in it. Only by the standards of the 2000 tech bubble and the year 1929 do you find higher normalized P/E ratios.



But if you look at the 12 month trailing P/E ratio, you could easily conclude that stocks are moderately expensive but not yet in bubble territory.



And yet again, if you look at the 12 month forward P/E ratio, it might be easy to conclude that stocks are fairly, even cheaply priced.



In a Perfect World

Earnings are projected to grow rather significantly. Let’s visit our old friend the S&P 500 Earnings and Estimate Report, produced by Howard Silverblatt (it’s a treasure trove of data, and it opens in Excel here.

I copied and pasted below just the material relevant for our purposes. Basically, you can see that using the consensus estimate for as-reported earnings would result in a relatively low price to earnings ratio of 13.5 at today’s S&P 500 price. If you think valuations will be higher than 13.5 at the end of 2015, then you probably want to be a buyer of stocks. (Again, you data junkies can see far more data in the full report.)



But this interpretation begs a question: How much of 2013 equity returns were due to actual earnings growth and how much were due to people’s being willing to pay more for a dollar’s worth of earnings? Good question. It turns out that the bulk of market growth in 2013 came from multiple expansion in the U.S., Europe, and United Kingdom. Apparently, we think (at least those who are investing in the stock market think) that the good times are going to continue to roll.



The chart above shows the breakdown of 2013 return drivers in global markets, but this next chart, from my friend Rob Arnott, shows that roughly 30% of large cap U.S. equity (S&P 500) returns over the last 30 years have come from multiple expansion; and recently, rising P/E has accounted for the vast majority of stock returns in the face of flat earnings.



The Future of Earnings

What kind of returns can we expect from today’s valuations? There are two ways we can look at it. One way is by looking at expected returns from current valuations, which is how Jeremy Grantham of GMO regularly does it. The following chart shows his projections for the average annual real return over the next seven years.

To continue reading this article from Thoughts from the Frontline – a free weekly publication by John Mauldin, renowned financial expert, best-selling author, and Chairman of Mauldin Economics – Please Click Here.

The article Thoughts from the Frontline: Are Valuations Really Too High? was originally published at Mauldin Economics

Sign up for one of our Free Trading Webinars....Just Click Here!

 

Is this Gold's "Best of the Breed" a Golden Rocket!

Gold and gold stocks have be stabilizing for months and have been quietly rising. Many gold stocks are up 30% even 50% in the past three months. The $HUI AMEX Gold Bugs Index is up over 30% from the lows.

If you think you have missed most of the move already you are wrong. The truth is most of the biggest rallies in stocks take place after a basing pattern with 30 -50% or more has formed. This is signaling massive accumulation in gold stocks and its happening right now by the institutions.

So in this exclusive report I want to share one golden rocket stock pick which I feel has huge upside potential “IF” the precious metals market and miners can breakout of this stage 1 pattern it has formed.

One thing that excites me is about precious metals and gold stocks is the fact that we have heard nothing about gold, silver or mining stocks in the media for months… almost like the big institutions have told the media to avoid putting the spot light on it until they accumulate all they can in terms of physical bullion and stock shares.

This is the same for a few other sectors I have been watching build massive stage 1 bases in over the past few months and will be investing and actively trading them also once they break out of the basing stage.


Gold Stock Trading & Investing Success Formula

1. KISS – Keep It Simple Stupid! – Non one likes or follows complicated trading strategies

2. Understand and know how to identify the four market stages – Read My Book: Click Here

3. Know why and how stages must be traded for timing your entry, profit taking and exits.

4. Scan the market for the top performing sectors and focus on stocks/ETFs within those sectors.

5. Review all stocks and funds to meet setup criteria and trade only the best looking charts primed to start a new bull market (low overhead resistance nearby, strong relative strength, strong volume on breakout, 30 week SMA moving up etc..) Get this done for you: Click Here

6. Sit back, watch and monitor position for possible change in the stage, to adjust stops and identify profit taking levels.


Golden Rock Stock Pick

The chart below is top quality gold stock which has all the characteristics of a big winner. Just to be clear, I normally do not mention individual stocks within public reports. I am not compensated in any way to post this report. This is nothing more than my technical outlook on a stock and not investment advice. I do plan on buying some shares of this company this week or next.





Golden Rocket Conclusion:

While it still my be a little early for precious metals to bottom, it looks as though the stage (pardon the pun) has been set for a precious metals bull market to start. As they say, there is always a bull market somewhere… the key is finding it and taking the proper action.

If you want simple, hassle free trading and investing join my newsletter today.

  Just visit The Gold & Oil Guy

Sincerely,

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. - Partnership Program

Check out our other "Gold and Crude Oil Trading Ideas"

Elliott Wave Theory - Keys to Investor Success

Elliott Wave Theory - Plenty of people will freely offer you advice on how to spend or invest your money. “Buy low and sell high,” they’ll tell you, “that’s really all there is to it!” And while there is a core truth to the statement, the real secret is in knowing how to spot the highs and lows, and thus, when to do your buying and selling. Sadly, that’s the part of the equation that most of the advice givers you’ll run across are content to leave you in the dark about.

The reality is that no matter how many times you are told differently, there is no ‘magic bullet.’ There is no plan, no series of steps you can follow that will, with absolute certainty, bring you wealth. If you happen across anyone who says otherwise, you can rely on the fact that he or she has an agenda, and that at least part of that agenda involves convincing you to open your wallet.

In the place of a surefire way to make profits, what is there? Where can you turn, and what kinds of things should you be looking for?

The answers to those questions aren’t as glamorous sounding as the promises made by those who just want to take your money, but they are much more effective. Things like careful, meticulous research. Market trend analysis. Paying close attention to extrinsic factors that could impact whatever industry you’re planning to invest in, and of course, Elliott wave theory. If you’ve never heard of the Elliott wave, you owe it to yourself to learn more about it.

Postulated by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the late 1930’s, it is essentially a psychological approach to investing that identifies specific stimuli that large groups tend to respond to in the same way. By identifying these stimuli, it then becomes possible to predict which direction the market will likely move, and as he outlined in his book “The Wave Principle,” market prices tend to unfold in specific patterns or ‘waves.’
The fact that many of the most successful Wall Street investors and portfolio managers use this type of trend analysis in their own decision making process should be compelling evidence that you should consider doing the same. No, it’s not perfect, and it is certainly not a guarantee, but it provides a strong framework of probability that, when combined with other research and analysis, can lead to consistently good decisions, and at the end of the day, that’s what investing is all about. Consistently good decision making.

We use Elliott Wave Theory in real time by looking at the larger patterns of the SP 500 index for example. We deploy Fibonacci math analysis to prior up and down legs in the markets to determine where we are in an Elliott Wave pattern.  This helps us decide if to be aggressive when the markets correct, go short the market, or to do nothing for example.  It also prevents us from making panic type decisions, whether that be in chasing a hot stock too higher or selling something too low before a reversal.  We also can use Elliott Wave Theory to help us determine when to be aggressive in selling or buying, on either side of a trade.

For many, its not practical to employ Elliott Wave analysis with individual stocks and trading, but it can be done with experience.  We instead use a combination of big picture views like weekly charts, Wave patterns within those weekly views, and then zoom in to shorter term technical to determine ultimate timing for entry and exit.  This type of big picture view coupled with micro analysis of the charts gives us more clarity and better results.

One of our favorite patterns for example is the “ABC” pattern.  Partially taken from Elliott Wave Theory, we mix in a few of our own ingredients to help with timing entries and exits.  This is where you have an initial massive rally or the “A” wave pattern. Say a stock like TSLA goes from $30 to $180 per share, which it did.  The B wave is what you wait for and using Fibonacci analysis and Elliott Wave Theory we can calculate a good entry point on the B wave correction.  TSLA dropped from $180 to about $ 120, retracing roughly 38% (Fibonacci retracement) of the rally $30 to $180.  The B wave bottomed out as everyone was negative on the stock and sentiment was bearish. That is when you get long for the “C” wave.  The C wave is when the stock regains momentum, good news starts to unfold, and sentiment turns bullish.  We can often calculate the B wave as it relates often to the A wave amplitude.  Example is the TSLA “A” wave was 150 points, so the C wave will be about the same or more.

When TSLA recently ran up to about $270 per share, we were in uber bullish “C” wave mode, and we had run up $150 (Same as the A wave) from $120 to $270.  That is when you know it’s a good time to start peeling off shares. Often though, the C wave will be 150-161% of the  A wave, so TSLA may not have completed it’s run just yet.



Knowing when to enter and exit a position whether your time frame is short, intermediate, or longer… can often be identified with good Elliott Wave Theory practices.  Your results and your portfolio will appreciate it, just look at our ATP track record from April 1 2013 to March 3^rd 2014 inclusive of all closed out swing positions.  We incorporated Elliott Wave Theory into our stock picking starting last April and you can see the results:

Join Us Today And Start Making Real Money Trading - Click Here

Sincerely,

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. - Partnership Program

This Might be our Most Important Post EVER!

This has been a big week around here. Our trading partner John Carter has been sharing some game changing videos that have culminated into his wildly popular webinars, "Being the Architect of the Big Trade".

If you haven't seen the videos or the webinar please do that asap after finishing reading this entire article.

Here is John's video from two weeks ago.

And Here is the Replay of John's Webinar, which will only be up until midnight Friday evening February 28th

John sent us this message this morning and I want you to read it, because it could be our most important post ever.

John Carter here......

This may be the most important email I’ve ever sent to you. (Print Now)

In 1984 I read a book about Arnold Schwarzenegger and ever since then he has been one of my idols. Arnold’s dream was to come to America to become rich and famous. He had no idea how he would do this.

Arnold said, “I was a 15 year old farm kid growing up in Austria when I was first inspired by a bodybuilding magazine with a picture of Reg Park on the cover from one of his Hercules movies. My life was never the same. Reg Park became my idol and I could not have picked a better hero to inspire me. Reg went from bodybuilding to the movies. He became a smart and successful businessman, and he was the first person who gave me a glimpse of what my life could someday become if I dreamed big and worked hard.”

The biggest thing he said that stuck with me is, “I read this magazine and there was the whole plan laid out. I had my blueprint to accomplish my dreams.”

When I was 18 and decided that I wanted to become a trader I knew I only needed to find a blueprint for success. Since then I’ve developed and implemented several blueprints for successful trading.

My most important blueprint is for building wealth

Every trader would love to start with a million dollar trading account, but this rarely happens. Today I trade a few seven figure accounts, but 25 years ago I funded my first account with $1,000 (equivalent to about $5,000 today). What I needed and I what I discovered was a blueprint for building wealth.

LAST CHANCE LINK

Did you know most trading strategies taught out there are designed for accounts larger than $25,000 yet they are taught to traders with a $5,000 account as if they will have the same edge as someone with a larger account? This is simply not true.

Most traders start with under $25,000 in their account and those accounts need to utilize specific strategies to build wealth.

How does a trader go about building wealth?

1) You have to start with a goal. I think a reasonable goal with the strategies I’m going to share is to double an account and do it in a year.

2) You need to develop the right money management and trading mindset

3) You have to control your risk through appropriate position sizing

4) You need to have a written trading plan with the strategies you’re going to use and when

5) You need to know where your targets are so you don’t leave money on the table

LAST CHANCE LINK

For the first (and last) time I’m going to share my exact blueprint for wealth building.

The blueprint will include:

1) Step by step, A and B happens you do C blueprint. There will be nothing left to interpretation.

2) How to manage your risk – when to go big, and when not to “piss away your chips.”

3) How to structure your wealth building trades so that even when they don’t work out you still make money

4) The 3 “how to crush it” strategies that were most profitable in 2013

5) Identify the exact levels when a stock will “rip the market makers heads off”

And much more…

My goal with this course is to leave with you the exact blueprint for building wealth like Reg Park gave to Arnold.

Here is what you'll get when you join the Ultimate Options Trading Blueprint and 3 day mentorship:

1) Access to the Saturday course and 3 full days of live trading, analysis, and follow up sessions

2) You Get to Keep Everything - All audio and video will be recorded and you will get the on demand links and DVD. You will be able to download all my notes, the action plan, and PDFs I share with you during the course.

3) Fast Answers to Your Relevant Questions Answered by Henry, Darrell, Brian, Jeff, and myself throughout the course.

4) Homework: Special Bonus - Beginners Guide to Option on demand link

5) Homework: Options 101 Class on demand link

6) How to prepare your mind for the class and success

LAST CHANCE LINK

Here are the answers to some of the biggest questions we've been getting:

Q: I’m new to options should I go to this class?

A: Every journey starts with a single step. As part of the class we have included a few homework assignments that will quickly get you up to speed. I can teach anyone options in 1 hour and that exactly what I do in your options 101 homework assignment.

Q: When is this class?

A: The strategies class will be held Saturday March 1st from 2:00PM – 6:00PM New York time or 1-5 central. The 3 day live trading mentorship is Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday March 4th, 6th, and 7th during market hours with a lunch break midday.

Q: Will the course be RECORDED?

A: YES. Every single second of the 4 day course will be recorded. You will have online access to the recording PLUS you will get a DVD of the entire course in the mail.

Q: I am in the live trading room and I’ve taken most of your other courses will I learn anything new in this course?

A: Yes this course will be chock full of brand-spanking-new, never-before-revealed strategies and setups. If you’re in the live trading room and participated in every course there may be a few things in the class that will overlap, for example, you will already know what a squeeze is. However, the overwhelming majority of this course is material I have never presented on before.

Q: Do I need to be there live to get the most out of the course?

A: No, the course will be recorded and you will get all the information regardless if you attend live or not. The strategies I will teach can be universally applied at any time. As I go through live trading examples, although you will not be able to follow along live, I will be describing in detail what I am looking for in these live trades so when you watch the recording you will have the exact blue print I used determine which trades I got into and why.

Q: What if I have a full time job and I can’t trade intraday?

A: All of the strategies will work on any time frame. This means if you can only do end of day trading you can use daily and weekly charts. I find that people who are able to watch the markets all day end up over trading which is a death sentence for your trading account.

Q: Is there a Members Discount?

A: For a limited time we are making this class available for everyone at the member price because this class is so crucial. After the class is over the price will be raised for non-members.

LAST CHANCE LINK

I believe this will be the best course I've ever done and I’m really excited about presenting this material to you and hearing about your success.

Good Trading,

John

Visit John Carters "Simpler Options and Trading"

Is it Too Late to Get into this Monster UNG Trade?

Natural gas looks to be breaking out and it has John's attention. With monthly and weekly charts breaking out he is looking at futures contracts having the possibility of easily moving up to the 4.48 level which means there is a lot of options open for us options traders. And if you have been following us this week you know John is on a roll.

John has put together a detailed free video to show us just exactly how to play UNG and natural gas while limiting our risk, just click here to watch "Is it Too Late to Get into this Monster UNG Trade?"


And if you haven't had a chance to see it yet take a few minutes to watch John's wildly popular webinar replay....."Nine Reasons Why You Should Trade Options on ETFs"

See you in the markets, the natural gas markets!

Ray's Stock World

Silver, Gold & Miners ETF Trading Strategy – Part II

It’s been over a week since our trading partner Chris Vermeulens last gold & silver report which he took a lot of heat because of his bearish outlook. Last Friday’s closing price has this sector trading precariously close to a major sell off if it’s not already started.

On a percentage bases Chris feels precious metals mining stocks as whole will be selling at a sharp discount in another week or three. ETF funds like the GDX, GDXJ and SIL have the most downside potential. The amount of emails he received from followers of those who have been buying more precious metals and gold stocks as price continues to fall was mind blowing.

Precious metals continued to fall on Monday and Tuesday of this week and selling volume should spike as protective stops will be getting run and the individuals who are underwater with a large percentage of their portfolio in the precious metals sector could start getting margin calls and cause another washout, spike low similar to what we saw in 2008.

Here is Chris' updated ETF Trading Charts with Friday’s closing prices showing technical breakdowns across the board....Read "Silver, Gold & Miners ETF Trading Strategy – Part II"



We are doing it again....This week's FREE webinar, "How to Boost Your Returns With One Secret ETF Strategy"
 

Silver, Gold & Miners About To Sell Off Again

A couple weeks ago I posted these same charts talking about the pending breakout (in either direction) with silver, gold and mining stocks. Fast forwarding to this week its clear this sector continues its struggle to rally. Key support levels are now being tested and if these levels fail prepare for a sharp correction with mining stocks showing the most downside potential of roughly 25% for the GDX ETF trading fund.

Let’s take a quick look at what is going on.

Gold Trading Chart:
The chart of gold shows price being wedge into the apex of the down sloping resistance trend line and the rising support trendline. Gold was trading below this level but has since bounced. But if gold closes the week below this line in the sand the price could start to fall quickly and test the $1200 per ounce within a week or two.




Silver Trading Chart:
Silver is under performing gold and trading below its support level currently. If silver does not recover by Friday’s closing bell then things could get ugly for a few weeks as investors start to exit their positions. That being said, I need to point out that silver is more of a wild card when using trend lines like this. Both gold and gold miners should be confirming this breakdown in silver if it is the real deal.




Gold Mining Stocks ETF:
The chart of gold miners I like the most. I like it because it’s pointing to lower prices, roughly 25% lower if the breakdown takes place. Gold mining stocks could be a fantastic long term investment if we see the $17.50 level reached on this GDX etf.



Last week I talked about ETF trading strategies and the big picture on gold, silver, miners and bonds. They look to be nearing a major bottom and once they do bottom it should be a great buying opportunity for specific stocks or the entire sector.

The next few weeks are going to be crucial for precious metals and we will keep an eye on them as this bottom unfolds.  

Get more reports like this here: www.Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen


Get our Gold, Crude Oil & Index ETF Trading Analysis Newsletter

How to Spot & Time Stock Market Tops

Since the middle of April everyone and including their grandmother seems to have been building a short position in the equities market and we know picking tops or bottoms fighting the major underlying trend is risky business but most individuals cannot resist.

The rush one gets trying to pick a major top or bottom is flat out exciting and that is what makes it so darn addicting and irresistible. If you have ever nailed a market top or bottom then you know just how much money can be made. That one big win naturally draws you back to keep doing it much like how a casino works. The chemicals released in the brain during these extremely exciting times are strong enough that even the most focused traders fall victim to breaking rules and trying these type of bets/trades.

So if are going to try to pick a top you better be sure the charts and odds are leaning in your favor as much as possible before starting to build a position.

Below are a few charts with my analysis and thoughts overlaid showing you some of the things I look at when thinking about a counter trend trade like picking a top within a bull market.

Utility Stocks vs SP500 Index Daily Performance Chart:

The SPY and XLU performance chart below clearly shows how the majority of traders move out of the slow moving defensive stocks (utilities – XLU) and starts to put their money into more risky stocks. This helps boost the broad market. I see the same thing in bonds and gold this month which is a sign that a market top is nearing.

That being said when a market tops it is generally a process which takes time. Most traders think tops area one day event but most of the times it takes weeks to unfold as the upward momentum slows and the big smart money players slowly hand off their long positions to the greedy emotion drove traders.

Look at the chart below and notice the first red box during September and October. As you can see it took nearly 6 weeks for that top to form before actually falling off. That same thing could easily happen again this time, though I do feel it will be more violent this time around.



SPY ETF Trading Chart Shows Instability and Resistance:

Using simple trend line analysis we see the equities market is trading at resistance and sideways or lower prices are more likely in the next week or two.



Stocks Trading Above 150 Day Moving Average Chart:

This chart because it’s based on a very long term moving average (150sma) is a slow mover and does not work well for timing traded. But with that said it does clearly warn you when stocks are getting a little overpriced and sellers could start at any time.

General rule is not to invest money on the long side when this chart is above the 75% level. Rather wait for a pullback below it.



Stocks Trading Above 20 Day Moving Average Chart:

This chart is based on the 20 day moving average which moves quickly. Because it reacts quicker to recent price action it can be a great help in timing an entry point for a market top or bottom. It does not pin point the day/top it does give you a one or two week window of when price should start to correct.



How to Spot and Time Stock Market Tops Conclusion:

As we all know or will soon find out, trading is one of the toughest businesses or and one of the most expensive hobbies that one will try to master. Hence the 95-99% failure rate of individuals who try to understand how the market functions, position management, how to control their own emotions and to create/follow a winning strategy.

With over 8000 public traded stocks, exchange traded funds, options, bonds, commodities, futures, forex, currencies etc… to pick from its easy to get overwhelmed and just start doing more or less random trades without a proven, documented rule based strategy. This type of trading results in frustration, loss of money and the eventual closure of a trading account. During this process most individuals will also lose friends, family and in many cased self-confidence.

So the next time you think about betting against the trend to pick a top or a bottom you better make darn sure you have waited well beyond the first day you feel like the market is topping out. Stocks trading over the 150 and 20 day moving averages should be in the upper reversal zones and money should be flowing out of bonds and other safe haven/defensive stocks to fuel the last rally/surge higher in the broad market.

Also I would like to note that I do follow the index futures and volume very closely on both the intraday and daily charts. This is where the big money does a lot of trading. Knowing when futures contracts are being sold or bought with heavy volume is very important data in helping time tops and bottoms more accurately. And the more experience you have in trading also plays a large part in your success in trading tops and bottoms.

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