Revisiting Black Monday 1987

Back in the day, for those of you that are old enough to remember and have experienced one of the most incredible trader psychology driven stock market decline in recent history. The difference between “Black Monday” and most of the other recent stock market declines is that October 19, 1987, was driven by a true psychological panic, what we consider true price exploration, after an incredible price rally.

It is different than the DOT COM (2001) decline and vastly different than the Credit Market Crisis (2008-09) because both of those events were related to true fundamental and technical evaluations. In both of those instances, prices have been rising for quite some time, but the underlying fundamentals of the economics of the markets collapsed and the markets collapsed with future expectations. Before we get too deep, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.

Our researchers believe the setup prior to the Black Monday collapse is strangely similar to the current setup across the global markets. In 1982, Ronald Reagan was elected into his second term as the US President. Since his election in 1980, the US stock market has risen over 300% by August 1987.

Reagan, much like President Trump, was elected after a long period of U.S. economic malaise and ushered in an economic boom cycle that really began to accelerate near August 1983 – near the end of his first term. The expansion from the lows of 1982, near 102.20, to the highs of 1987, near 337.90, in the S&P 500 prompted an incredible rally in the US markets for all global investors.

This is very similar to what has happened since 2015/16 in the markets and particularly after the November 2016 elections when the S&P500 bottomed near 1807.5 and has recently set hew highs near 3026.20 – a 67.4% price rally in just over 3 years.

One can simply make the assumption that global investors poured capital in the US markets in 1983 to 1986 as the US markets entered a rally mode just like we suspect global investors have poured capital into the US markets after the 2016 US elections and have continued to seek value, safety, and returns in the US markets since. These incredible price rallies setup a very real potential for “true price exploration” when investors suddenly realize valuations may be out of control.

So, what actually happened on October 19th, 1987 that was different than the last few market collapse events and why is it so similar to what is happening today?

On October 19, 1987, a different set of circumstances took place. This was almost a perfect storm of sorts for the markets. The US markets had risen nearly 44% by August 1987 from the previous yearly close – a huge rally had taken place. Computer trading, which some people suspected may have been a reason for the price decline on October 19, was largely in its infancy.

Floor traders were running the show in New York and Chicago. The London markets closed early the Friday, October 16, because of a weather event that was taking place. The “setup” of these events may have played a roll in the liquidity issues that became evident on Black Monday and pushed the US markets down 22.61% by the end of trading.

The US markets had set up a top near 2,722 in early August 1987 after rising nearly 44% from the 1986 end of year closing price level of 1,895. The SPX rotated lower from this peak to set up a sideways price channel near 315 throughout the end of August and through most of September. On October 5, 1987, the SPX started a downward price move that attempted to test the lower support channel near 312. On October 12, one week later, the SPX broke below this support channel and closed at 298.10 (below the psychological 300 level). The very next weekend was October 17 & 18 – the weekend before Black Monday.

Sunday night, October 18, in the US, the Asian markets opened for trading and a price sell-off began taking place in Hong Kong. Because the London markets has closed early on the 16th due to the storm, by the time they opened the UK markets began tanking almost immediately. Early in the day on Monday, October 19, the FTSE100 had collapsed over 136 points.

Our researchers believe the declines in the US markets in early October 1987 set up a breakdown event that, once support was broken, prompted a collapse event where liquidity issues accelerated the price decline volatility – much like the “flash crash”. Global investors were unprepared for the scale and scope of the price decline event and panicked at the speed of the price collapse.

In fact, at the height of the 1987 crash, systemic problems (mostly solvency and brokerage house operations) continued to threaten a much larger financial market collapse. Within days of Black Monday, it became evident that margin accounts and solvency issues related to operating capital, large scale risks and continued fear that the markets may continue to collapse presented a very real problem for the US and for the world. Have we re-entered another Black Monday type of setup across the global markets?

As new economic data continues to suggest the global markets are economically contracting and stagnating, the US Federal Reserve has started buying assets again while the foreign central banks continue to push negative interest rates while attempting to spark any signs of real economic growth. The US stock market has continued to push higher – almost attempting new all-time highs again just recently. The US stock market is up nearly 68% over the past 3.5 years since Trump was elected and as of Friday, October 18, 2019, the US stock markets fell nearly 0.75% on economic fears.

In Part II of this article, we’ll explore the potential of another Black Monday type of setup that may be playing out before our very eyes right now in the US stock market.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life changing if handled properly.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Join Today to Get a Free 1 ounce Silver Bar with a subscription – Offer Ends This Week!

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

Waiting for the Russell 2000 to Confirm the Next Big Move

While we have recently suggested the US stock market is poised for further upside price activity with a moderately strong upside price “bias”, our researchers continue to believe the U.S. stock markets will not break out to the upside until the Russell 2000 breaks the current price channel, Bull Flag, formation. Even though the U.S. stock markets open with a gap higher this week, skilled traders must pay attention to how the Mid-Caps and the Russell 2000 are moving throughout this move.

As we continue to advise our clients that the upside pricing cycle in the U.S. stock market is being underestimated, see this research post: we also believe that increased volatility and price rotation will continue to drive larger rotations in price before the final breakout upside move takes place. We want to continue to warn traders that we still don’t have any confirmed upside breakout with price continuing to stay within this price channel in the Russell 2000. Eventually, when and if the price does breakout to the upside, we will have a very clear indication that continued higher prices and a larger upside move is happening. Until then, we need to stay cautious about the types and levels of rotation that continue within the markets.

Recently, volatility has started to increase as can be seen in this VIX chart. If the Russell 2000 is not able to break this trend channel with this current upside price move, then we fully expect continued price rotation in the U.S. stock markets and another increase in the VIX as this rotation takes place. The NQ recently rotated downward by nearly 4% while historical volatility continues to narrow. When volatility diminishes in extended price trends, we’ve learned to expect aggressive price rotation can become more of a concern. We expect the VIX to spike above 16~18 on moderate volatility as we get closer to the cycle inflection date near June/July 2019.

Volatility Index – VIX chart by TradingView

Overall, our researchers believe the upside price bias in the U.S. stock market will continue for another 30+ days as our research and predictions regarding precious metals and the longer term equities price cycles continue to play out. Skilled traders need to be aware that this upside price bias may include larger price rotation and volatility as we get closer to the May/June/July 2019 cycle inflection points. Stay aware of the risks as 4~6%+ price rotations should be expected over the next 30+ days throughout this upside price bias.

Do you want to find a team of dedicated researchers and traders that can help you find and execute better trades in 2019 and beyond? Please visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you prepare for the big moves in the global markets and find better opportunities for greater success in the future. Our team of researchers and traders continue to scan the markets for new trades and unique opportunities.

Chris Vermeulen

Are Traders Interested in Living Longer and Feeling Better?

For some reason my trading partners and our readers seem to be more interested in their health and longevity than my friends or even family members. It's for that reason we are excited to give you a quick heads up about something we think is going to be very important to them. And it’s happening really soon.

On February 1st, at 6:00 p.m. est, the "Live Longer, Feel Better!" documentary will air its live first episode. And believe me, you won’t want to miss even ONE of the experts that director Michael Beattie has brought together.

I’ve had a sneak peek at it and this is absolutely going to change how you think about getting older and maintaining your health. If you're AT ALL concerned about where you'll be in 30 years time, you MUST see this.

Click Here to Watch the Trailer

The documentary series and everything that accompanies it, presents you with a real action plan to avoid disease as you enter and enjoy your later years. But the earlier you start, the better!

On February 1st, you will be able to see it all at NO cost, Right Here!

The current epidemic of Alzheimers, Diabetes and other avoidable diseases is stealing our futures and condemning thousands of people to a nursing home. No one has to go through that!

Let’s take that future back NOW.

Please make time to watch this, and help me spread the word if you can.

To your health,
Ray's Stock World

PS. One final note – Each episode of this incredible 7 part series will be online for only 24 hours from release. Make sure you register right now so you don’t miss a single thing. You’ll be excited by what you’re about to discover.

Below is a Quick One Minute+ Video Trailer We Below

2018 First Quarter Technical Analysis Price Forecast

As 2017 draws to a close, our analysis shows the first Quarter of 2018 should start off with a solid rally. Our researchers use our proprietary modeling and technical analysis systems to assist our members with detailed market analysis and timing triggers from expected intraday price action to a multi-month outlook.

These tools help us to keep our members informed of market trends, reversals, and big moves. Today, we are going to share some of our predictive modelings with you to show you why we believe the first three months of 2018 should continue higher.

One of our most impressive and predictive modeling systems is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning system. This system allows us to ask the market what will be the highest possible outcome of recent trading activity projected into the future. It accomplishes this by identifying Genetic Price/Pattern markers in the past and recording them into a Genome Map of price activity and probable outcomes.

This way, when we ask it to show us what it thinks will be the highest probable outcome for the future, it looks into this Genome Map, finds the closest relative Genetic Price/Pattern marker and then shows us what this Genome marker predicts as the more likely outcome.

This current Weekly chart of the SPY is showing us that the next few Weeks and Months of price activity should produce a minimum of a $5 – $7 rally. This means that we could see a continued 2~5% rally in US Equities early in 2018.

Additionally, the ES (S&P E-mini futures) is confirming this move in early 2018 with its own predictive analysis. The ADL modeling system is showing us that the ES is likely to move +100 pts from current levels before the end of the first Quarter 2018 equating to a +3.5% move (or higher). We can see from this analysis that a period of congestion or consolidation is expected near the end of January or early February 2018 – which would be a great entry opportunity.

The trends for both of these charts is strongly Bullish and the current ADL price predictions allow investors to understand the opportunities and expectations for the first three months of 2018. Imagine being able to know or understand that a predictive modeling system can assist you in making decisions regarding the next two to three months as well as assist you in planning and protecting your investments? How powerful would that technology be to you?

Our job at Technical Traders Ltd. is to assist our members in finding and executing profitable trades and to assist them in understanding market trends, reversals, and key movers. We offer a variety of analysis types within our service to support any level of a trader from novice to expert, and short term to long term investors.

Our specialized modeling systems allow us to provide one of a kind research and details that are not available anywhere else. Our team of researchers and traders are dedicated to helping us all find great success with our trading.

So, now that you know what to expect from the SPY and ES for the next few months, do you want to know what is going to happen in Gold, Silver, Bonds, FANGs, the US Dollar, Bitcoin, and more?

Join The Technical Traders Right Here to gain this insight and knowledge today.

Chris Vermeulen

Today's Gap Fill and Prediction Complete, What's Next?

Subscribers of our Technical Traders Wealth Building Newsletter were told before the market opened that stocks were set to gap higher and then fill the price gap. Only 12 minutes after the market opened the gap window was filled for a 9.5 pt move in the SP500, which is a quick $475 profit for those trading futures, or $103 profit per 100 shares traded of the SPY ETF.

Yesterdays Gap Fill Forecast

If you want to know what the market are going to do today, this week, and next month be sure to subscribe to our new and improved market trend forecast and trading newsletter....

Visit "The Technical Traders ETF Cycle Trader" Right Here

Utility Tokens and Cryptos Finally Properly Explained

We have asked our trading partner Teeka Tiwari to explain to us what crypto currencies are and the difference in a crypto currency and the many tokens being offered in the ICO markets right now. Please take a few minutes to read his entire response, when you are done you will have a complete grasp of cryptos and utility tokens....

Cryptos are a brand new asset class. They're completely different from stocks, bonds, and traditional currencies. But that was over 18 months ago. Since then, Bitcoin has risen 1,600% and ether (the coin for the Ethereum network) is up 2,563%.

Perhaps you feel that crypto assets aren't assets at all. Perhaps you've missed out on this incredible run and think it's too late to get in. I want to show you why cryptocurrencies are not like the Dutch Tulip Craze. In fact, we're still in the early days of the cryptocurrency boom.

According to billionaire hedge fund manager Mike Novogratz, the entire crypto market is set to become 25 times larger in the next 5 years. That would be a 2,400+% rise from today. And he's putting his money where his mouth is. Novogratz recently put 10% of his net worth into crypto assets.

That means this asset class still has plenty of room to run and there's still time for you to join the ride. What I'm about to share with you could be very valuable. Like the internet before them, cryptocurrencies have the potential to reshape the economy and they offer a rare opportunity for ordinary individuals to make life changing gains.

The Cryptocurrency Ecosystem

To kick off your education, you need to understand there are two types of crypto assets: cryptocurrencies and utility coins (also called app coins). Think of cryptocurrencies as the digital equivalent of traditional fiat currencies such as dollars, euros, and pounds.

You can use them as a medium of exchange or to store value. The only difference is they're exchanged over the blockchain. Think of utility coins as crypto equities. They're like buying shares in IBM, Walmart, or Apple. Instead, you're buying a stake in a blockchain venture.

Cryptocurrencies and utility coins are similar in that they both operate on a blockchain. The blockchain is like an online public ledger. It's used to track cryptocurrency transactions [Blockchain is a public ledger of all cryptocurrency transactions executed. It's a shared network that can move value around and represent property ownership.]

Now that you know the two types of crypto assets, let me explain how each works.

A New Form of Money

Cryptocurrencies are the crypto asset that most folks are familiar with. So, we'll dive into this one first. The most common cryptocurrencies is Bitcoin. It was created to act as alternatives to fiat (paper) money. Two frequent questions we get are why would anyone buy a cryptocurrency that's backed by nothing and can be created by anyone.

These aren't only fair questions, but smart ones. Here's the thing to remember about money: It's whatever people mutually agree it is. In the past, beads, cowrie shells, silver, gold, and of course paper, have all been used as money. You'll notice that none of them have any intrinsic value.

At the end of the day, a sack of flour has more practical value than a $100 bill or even a bar of gold.

And yet, we value both far more than a sack of flour. That's the mutual agreement we've all come to.

When you think about it, it's not that rational. How does a piece of green paper or a bar of yellow metal hold more value to a human than a sack of flour that can be used to feed a family for weeks?

Because we all agree it does.

In my opinion, paper currency may be the most irrational form of money in human history. At least you can decorate yourself with gold, silver, beads, and cowrie shells. Not only that there's a limit to how much gold, silver, and shells that can be found. There's no limit on the amount of paper money that can be created.

The closest thing to true money (outside of food) is gold. Gold meets several historical rules that we use to judge value. It's prized for its beauty. It's difficult to find. It's expensive to extract. It's also a scarce resource. But there are problems with gold, too. We have to trust that the refineries that certify the gold's purity are telling the truth.

Gold is also difficult to transfer (think of carrying around bags of gold coins or chests of gold bars). And that makes it virtually useless as a practical medium of exchange in daily life. What I mean is you can't buy a new car, house, or even a book with gold bars.

Here's How Cryptocurrencies Are Creating Value

Well designed cryptocurrencies have many features that humans look for when measuring value. Let's talk about them now.

Pre-Programed Scarcity

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are pre programmed to create a set amount of coins. Once this limit is reached, no new coins will be created. This creates scarcity. For instance, the algorithm that governs Bitcoin will create no more than 21 million Bitcoins.

Think about this, there are 35 million millionaires in the world. That means if every millionaire wanted to own an entire Bitcoin, they wouldn't be able to. There literally is not enough to go around. Contrast that with paper money.

With paper money, there's no limit to how much can be created. However, gold is finite. That limits how much new gold can be refined each year. You can see that cryptocurrencies actually have more in common with gold than with paper money.

Difficult to Counterfeit

Cryptocurrencies rely on a technology called the "blockchain." This blockchain uses cryptography to secure transactions. These complex mathematical algorithms make counterfeiting cryptocurrencies almost impossible. Now, compare that to cash. It's estimated that almost a quarter billion dollars of counterfeit paper money sloshes around the U.S. every year.

What about gold? Fake gold will never fool an expert. But counterfeit gold could be passed off to someone with an untrained eye. Cryptocurrencies share two important criteria that give value to traditional assets: scarcity and irreproducibility (hard to counterfeit). These are necessary to create value. But you need something else, too.

A Final Criterion

For a thing to have value, it needs one final thing: Some form of utility. Even art (which some will argue is worth little more than the sum of its parts), creates massive utility by stirring deep emotions in the hearts of people that can appreciate it. That emotional response is a very valuable form of utility. It's the reason people spend billions on art annually. So, what type of utility do cryptocurrencies provide?

Rapid Transfer of Funds

Unlike the transfer of gold or even cash, cryptocurrencies can transfer value almost instantly. And they can do it at very low costs. On the Bitcoin network, you can send $50,000 for about $3. The receiver will get it in about 10 minutes.

Compare that to a traditional wire transfer. The fastest I've seen a wire hit is 24 hours. The cost to send a domestic wire can vary from $35 to $70. International wires can eat up 1%-15% of the total amount of money sent. As far as sending gold, it takes 3-14 days domestically and is very expensive. So, being able to quickly send money anywhere in the world is a very valuable utility that cryptocurrencies possess.

Free from Government Control

Over the years, both gold and cash have been either confiscated or severely restricted through capital controls. Capital controls are government restrictions on your ability to access or move your money.

Even here in the U.S., we have capital controls. For instance, you can't just stroll through airport security with more than $10,000 in cash.

Unless you declare it, you're breaking the law. Even though it's our money, the government insists we report when and where we're moving it. This is an outrageous demand that we accept because there are no alternatives. That is until cryptocurrencies came around.

With cryptocurrencies, we are in complete control of our own funds. We can store them on our own devices free from government intervention. If you store your cryptocurrencies properly, it is impossible for the government to confiscate or control them. This is a truly liberating utility that is very valuable.

Highly Secure Decentralized Payment Network

One common criticism of cryptocurrencies is that anyone can make one. How can something have value if you can create a currency with just a few lines of code? This criticism is spot on.

But remember, anyone can buy a printing press and start making his or her own paper money. What stops people is that no one would use it. The same is true in crypto. Only currencies that gain widespread adoption actually take off.

One of the ways we measure this widespread adoption is by looking at the number of computers that are in a cryptocurrency network. For instance, more than 7,000 separate computers are running the Bitcoin blockchain.

That widespread adoption is a vote of confidence by the market. It's a way for us to objectively identify "good" cryptocurrencies from bad ones. As the network of users grows, so does the volume of cryptocurrency being transacted. This in turn creates a network effect that snowballs.

For instance, $143 million per day of Bitcoin changed hands in 2016. Today, it's over $4 billion per day. The widespread use of this currency is giving it value. Thousands of people are coming together and agreeing to exchange goods and services for Bitcoin.

That is the true test for any currency. Are people accepting it? The answer is a resounding yes. For these reasons, we believe you'll see more people continue to adopt cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. They offer utility that neither cash nor gold can. Just a few of those companies already accepting Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies are....Overstock.com, Microsoft, Intuit, PayPal, DISH Network and many more.

A Second Type of Crypto Asset

Earlier, I told you there are two types of crypto assets. The first is cryptocurrencies (which I've just explained to you). The second type of crypto asset goes by several names. Some folks call them "application coins" others call them "utility coins."

The terms are interchangeable. So, what is a utility coin? A utility coin is a crypto asset that is used to secure or deliver a service. Our biggest gains have come from investing in utility coins.

That's why I want to spend the rest of this email talking about them. If you can understand how utility coins work, you can make a fortune in them. In my Palm Beach Confidential service, I have readers that are transforming $300 investments into six figure windfalls by getting in early on utility coins.

Three Themes Driving the Value of Utility Coins

Over 2017, I've been to conferences in Silicon Valley, Boston, Austin, Las Vegas, New York City, Berlin, London, and Copenhagen. During these conferences, I've met with hundreds of people. I've met crypto project founders, venture capitalists, government regulators, central bankers, Fortune 500 executives, hedge fund managers, and digital currency miners.

These are the three primary themes that are driving their research, development, and investment decisions:

• Fat protocols
• Interoperability
• Scaling

If you don't know what these terms mean, don't worry. I'll explain each for you right now.

Theme 1: Fat Protocols

What is a "fat protocol"? I had to ask myself the same question. I stumbled upon this theme at the Consensus 2017 event in New York City in late May. And I heard about fat protocols in more detail in Berlin. Let's start with protocol. In the technology world, a protocol is a set of rules.

For instance, the internet is governed by two protocols: TCP and IP. TCP stands for transmission control protocol. This is a set of rules that governs the exchange of packets of data over the internet. IP stands for internet protocol. This is a set of rules that governs sending and receiving data at the internet address level.

IP by itself is something like the postal system. It allows you to address a package and drop it in the system, but there's no direct link between you and the recipient. TCP/IP, on the other hand, establishes a connection between two hosts, so they can send messages back and forth for a period of time.

Nobody owns TCP/IP. But imagine if someone did. How valuable would the protocols be?

Think about this. According to a Harvard Business Review article, more than half the world's most valuable public companies have built business models on TCP/IP. That's $5.4 trillion dollars in value traced right back to TCP/IP. Think of the biggest names in the internet space: Amazon, Google, Facebook, Priceline, eBay, Netflix, Uber, etc... They are applications, not protocols.

In short: Applications (or "apps") are computer programs that run specific tasks. They include simple desktop apps like calculators, clocks, and word processors to mobile apps like media players, games, instant messengers, and maps. Google's YouTube, Facebook's Messenger, and Microsoft Word are examples of popular web applications. Companies own their applications.

Protocols are the rules computers use to communicate with each other. TCP and IP are examples of widely used protocols. Unlike applications, no one owns computer or internet protocols. For instance, the Ethereum platform has created a protocol for the issuance of crypto tokens (among many other things).

Ethereum has created rules that make it easy to launch and manage digital tokens. That's why more than 50% of new tokens coming to market are using the Ethereum platform. As more projects are launched on the Ethereum network, the demand for ether tokens increases. Said another way, the more the protocol is used, the more valuable the ether tokens become.

These protocols are called "fat" because most of the economic value and profits will be captured at the protocol level. All the tokens launched on the Ethereum platform are only worth $6.8 billion. But the Ethereum platform itself is now worth $34 billion.

Even as more and more companies go "public" on the Ethereum platform, we think Ethereum will be more valuable than the applications that end up running on it. The reason is that the more the protocol is used, the more demand is generated for the underlying protocol token. That's how utility coins like ether gain their value.

Theme 2: Interoperability

Hundreds of new blockchain ledgers are emerging. On top of that, there are hundreds of established centralized ledgers and payment networks. These established payment channels are used by banks and payment providers. We're talking about giants like JPMorgan, PayPal, Visa, and MasterCard.

As the world migrates from a centralized to a decentralized model, how do you get these different networks to communicate with one another? This is a huge problem. That's why we think the next boom will be in companies that allow different ledgers to "talk" to each other.

Imagine there's an English speaker, German speaker, and French speaker in the same room. And no one speaker understands any other speaker. This is the problem right now with blockchains and payment networks. They all "speak" different languages. But what if somebody could create a technology that would allow these different languages to understand one another? In the tech world, this is called "interoperability."

The Difference Between Financial Ledgers and Blockchain Ledgers

Today's financial system requires a lot of overlap. Financial institutions spend a lot of time and money maintaining their systems and even more time and money making sure their systems agree with other systems on common facts.

This is done so that there is no single point of control or single point of failure. The solution is decentralization. It eliminates single points of failure and the necessity for each institution to duplicate the data. The table below highlights the differences between a traditional ledger and a blockchain ledger.

Imagine a version of eBay or PayPal that can work with virtually any digital or fiat payment system. That's the goal of interoperability. Here's the key takeaway, The utility coins that are building in easy to use interoperability will be the ones that become highly valuable.

Theme 3: Scaling

While in Berlin, I met a group of executives from drug giant Merck. These folks oversee Merck's European innovation group. They are tasked with identifying and getting management "buy in" on implementing innovative technology. They have a terrific grasp of the blockchain. They know it could potentially save Merck millions of dollars in costs.

The problem is none of the current blockchain platforms scale. Meaning they just can't operate at the speed and level of complexity Merck requires. This is a common complaint. I've heard it from executives in London, Boston, Silicon Valley, New York City, and now Berlin.

The two most popular blockchains, Bitcoin and Ethereum, can only handle seven and 15 transactions per second, respectively. Like the old 56k telephone modems of the '90s, that's awful. But it would be a mistake to think that it will stay that way forever.

Just as those modems eventually transformed into the high speed internet we enjoy today, it's only a question of time before Bitcoin and Ethereum crack the scaling problem.

Bringing It All Together

The future for cryptocurrencies and utility coins is bright. As more people look to take control of their money, they'll turn to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and others. As I track the developments in fat protocols, interoperability, and scaling, I'm seeing more and more widespread adoption of utility coins like ether and many others.

But remember: These are still very early days. We'll see massive volatility ahead. It's unavoidable. The key to thriving in the chaos of the early days of a new technology is to remain rational. Friends, hear me when I tell you that it is irrational to expect the crypto market to be stable. Any market this new is highly unstable. The way we manage and profit from that instability is to use small position sizes. With crypto assets, we rely on asymmetric risk.

With crypto we can swing for the fences without putting the rest of our existing wealth at risk. This is a rare opportunity for ordinary people to make life changing gains without having to take life changing risk. That means we risk a small amount of money for a massive potential payoff. This strategy is working well for my readers.

The best part is this trend is just beginning. Right now, the entire crypto market is valued at about $195 billion. Novogratz, the hedge fund billionaire I mentioned earlier, sees the entire market growing to $5 trillion. That's 2,400+% upside ahead. That means we have many more opportunities in front of us to make life changing gains. So get out there. At the very least, buy some Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Remember, you don't have to own a whole Bitcoin. You can own just a fraction of a coin.

And as all these developments unfold – along with others like them – I'm confident that one day you'll be grateful you took action.

Let the Game Come to You!

Teeka Tiwari

Editor, Palm Beach Confidential

The Iron Rule of the Financial Markets

This math formula that can literally predict the market:    dxt=θ(μ−xt)dt+σdWt

John Bogle the founder of The Vanguard Group, calls it the iron rule of the financial markets. Jason Zweig from the Wall Street Journal says it’s the most powerful law in finance.

Legendary trader James O'Shaughnessy says that historically, we have always seen it driving stocks. And over the last 8 years it could have paid you well in consistent reliable profits.

Now I’m Going To Show You How It Works ← Click Here

If you trade it with options it could produce rapid two week individual trade profits like....

  *  204% on XLU Put Options

  *  124% on XLE Call Options

  *  And even as much as 998% on XLE Put Options

  *  All in precisely two weeks - no more, no less.

Get The Facts ← Click Here

My trading partner Todd Mitchell has recorded a three video series explaining how it works. He’s making it available to you now - 100% for FREE.

This series will only be available for a very limited time. If you want to watch…

Visit Here to Check it Out Right Now

See you in the Markets!
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader

New Law Could Send Bitcoin and Cryptos Skyrocketing Higher By January

I have a new message and update from my trading partner Teeka Tiwari of the Palm Beach Research Group, make sure you are keeping up with him this week.....

A few weeks ago, I told my team that we needed to get the word out about a major Bitcoin development. Something that could be very bullish for cryptocurrencies. I won’t get into all the nitty gritty. But in short, a new bi-partisan law is working its way through Congress as we speak, and is targeted to go into effect by January 1st. When it does, it could send Bitcoin and a handful of lesser-known cryptos soaring in the coming weeks and months.

Why do I say that?

Because when the same law was passed in Europe, Bitcoin jumped 80% in two weeks. And when a similar law passed in Japan earlier this year, it helped send the entire crypto market over 100%, and break out to all time highs. Now I believe we’re about to see the same thing here. Only when this happens in America, the returns could dwarf what we’ve seen from smaller areas.

That’s why I’m holding this free webinar....

I want to give you all the details on this development and explain how to take advantage of it to potentially make 5, 10, even 20 times your money, as those who follow my work have already been able to do. In fact, I’m so bullish that this new law could send Bitcoin soaring that I’m buying $1 million dollars of Bitcoin and giving it all away during the event.

You’ll get all the details Thursday night. The event is completely free, but you must register in advance to access it and claim all the free training that comes with it. You can do so automatically here.

Sincerely,
Teeka Tiwari

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How Our Multiple Cycle and Vibrational-Frequency Cycles Are Lining Up

A quick look at any of the US majors will show most investors that the markets have recently been pushing upward towards new all time highs. These traditional market instruments can be misleading at times when relating the actual underlying technical and fundamental price activities. Today, we are going to explore some research using our custom index instruments that we use to gauge and relate more of the underlying market price action.

What if we told you to prepare for a potentially massive price swing over the next few months? What if we told you that the US and Global markets are setting up for what could be the “October Surprise of 2017” and very few analysts have identified this trigger yet? Michael Bloomberg recently stated “I cannot for the life of me understand why the market keeps going up”. Want to know why this perception continues and what the underlying factors of market price activity are really telling technicians?

At ATP we provide full time dedicated research and trading signal solution for professional and active traders. Our research team has dedicated thousands or hours into developing a series of specialized modeling systems and analysis tools to assist us in finding successful trading opportunities as well as key market fundamentals. In the recent past, we have accurately predicted multiple VIX Spikes, in some cases to the exact day, and market signals that have proven to be great successes for our clients. Today, we’re going to share with you something that you may choose to believe or not – but within 60 days, we believe you’ll be searching the internet to find this article again knowing ATP (Active Trading Partners) accurately predicted one of the biggest moves of the 21st century. Are you ready?

Let’s start with the SPY. From the visual analysis of the chart, below, it would be difficult for anyone to clearly see the fragility of the US or Global markets. This chart is showing a clearly bullish trend with the perception that continued higher highs should prevail.

Additionally, when we review the QQQ we see a similar picture. Although the volatility is typically greater in the NASDAQ vs. the S&P, the QQQ chart presents a similar picture. Strong upward price activity in addition to historically consistent price advances. What could go wrong with these pictures – right? The markets are stronger than ever and as we’ve all heard “it’s different this time”.

Most readers are probably saying “yea, we’ve heard it before and we know – buy the dips”.

Recently, we shared some research with you regarding longer term time/price cycles (3/7/10 year cycles) and prior to that, we’ve been warning of a Sept 28~29, 2017 VIX Spike that could be massive and a “game changer” in terms of trend. We’ve been warning our members that this setup in price is leading us to be very cautious regarding new trading signals as volatility should continue to wane prior to this VIX Spike and market trends may be muted and short lived. We’ve still made a few calls for our clients, but we’ve tried to be very cautious in terms of timing and objectives.

Right now, the timing could not be any better to share this message with you and to “make it public” that we are making this prediction. A number of factors are lining up that may create a massive price correction in the near future and we want to help you protect your investments and learn to profit from this move and other future moves. So, as you read this article, it really does not matter if you believe our analysis or not – the proof will become evident (or not) within less than 60 days based on our research. One way or another, we will be proven correct or incorrect by the markets.

Over the past 6+ years, capital has circled the globe over and over attempting to find suitable ROI. It is our belief that this capital has rooted into investment vehicles that are capable of producing relatively secure and consistent returns based on the global economy continuing without any type of adverse event. In other words, global capital is rather stable right now in terms of sourcing ROI and capital deployment throughout the globe. It would take a relatively massive event to disrupt this capital process at the moment.

Asia/China are pushing the upper bounds of a rather wide trading channel and price action is setting up like the SPY and QQQ charts, above. A clear upper boundary is evident as well as our custom vibrational/frequency analysis arcs that are warning us of a potential change in price trend. You can see from the Red Arrow we’ve drawn, any attempt to retest the channel lows would equate to an 8% decrease in current prices.

Still, there is more evidence that we are setting up for a potentially massive global price move. The metals markets are the “fear/greed” gauge of the planet (or at least they have been for hundreds of years). When the metals spike higher, fear is entering the markets and investors avoid share price risks. When the metals trail lower, greed is entering the markets and investors chase share price value.

Without going into too much detail, this custom metals chart should tell you all you need to know. Our analysis is that we are nearing the completion of Wave C within an initial Wave 1 (bottom formation) from the lows in Dec 2016. Our prediction is that the completion of Wave #5 will end somewhere above the $56 level on this chart (> 20%+ from current levels). The completion of this Wave #5 will lead to the creation of a quick corrective wave, followed by a larger and more aggressive upward expansion wave that could quickly take out the $75~95 levels. Quite possibly before the end of Q1 2018.

We’ve termed this move the “Rip your face off Metals Rally”. You can see from this metals chart that we have identified multiple cycle and vibrational/frequency cycles that are lining up between now and the end of 2017. It is critical to understand the in order for this move to happen, a great deal of fear needs to reenter the global markets. What would cause that to happen??

Now for the “Hidden Gem”....

We’ve presented some interesting and, we believe, accurate market technical analysis. We’ve also been presenting previous research regarding our VIX Spikes and other analysis that has been accurate and timely. Currently, our next VIX Spike projection is Sept 28~29, 2017. We believe this VIX Spike could be much larger than the last spike highs and could lead to, or correlate with, a disruptive market event. We have ideas of what that event might be like, but we don’t know exactly what will happen at this time or if the event will even become evident in early October 2017. All we do know is the following....

The Head-n-Shoulders pattern we first predicted back in June/July of this year has nearly completed and we have only about 10~14 trading days before the Neck Line will be retested. This is the Hidden Gem. This is our custom US Index that we use to filter out the noise of price activity and to more clearly identify underlying technical and price pattern formations. You saw from the earlier charts that the Head n Shoulders pattern was not clearly visible on the SPY or QQQ charts – but on THIS chart, you can’t miss it.

It is a little tough to see on this small chart but, one can see the correlation of our cycle analysis, the key dates of September 28~29 aligning perfectly with vibration/frequency cycles originating from the start of the “head” formation. We have only about 10~14 trading days before the Neck Line will likely be retested and, should it fail, we could see a massive price move to the downside.

What you should expect over the next 10~14 trading days is simple to understand.

Expect continued price volatility and expanded rotation in the US majors.

• Expect the VIX to stay below 10.00 for only a day or two longer before hinting at a bigger spike move (meaning moving above 10 or 11 as a primer)
• Expect the metals markets to form a potential bottom pattern and begin to inch higher as fear reenters the markets _ Expect certain sectors to show signs of weakness prior to this move (possibly technology, healthcare, bio-tech, financials, lending)
• Expect the US majors to appear to “dip” within a 2~4% range and expect the news cycles to continue the “buy the dip” mantra.

The real key to all of this is what happens AFTER October 1st and for the next 30~60 days after. This event will play out as a massive event or a non event. What we do know is that this event has been setting up for over 5 months and has played out almost exactly as we have predicted. Now, we are 10+ days away from a critical event horizon and we are alerting you well in advance that it is, possibly, going to be a bigger event.

Now, I urge all of you to visit our website to learn more about what we do and how we provide this type of advanced analysis and research for our clients. We also provide clear and timely trading signals to our clients to assist them in finding profitable trading opportunities based on our research. Our team of dedicated analysts and researchers do our best to bring you the best, most accurate and advanced research we can deliver. The fact that we called this Head-n-Shoulders formation back in June/July and called multiple VIX Spike events should be enough evidence to consider this call at least a strong possibility.

If you want to take full advantage of the markets to profit from these moves, then join us today here at the Active Trading Partners and become a member.

Positioning for “Swan Type” Disasters

Recently, the US, China and portions of SE Asia have been hit by massive hurricanes and cyclones. As investors, it is often difficult to understand the mechanics of how these types of disasters result in opportunities while thousands are attempting to rebuild and survive. Yet, as investors, it is our job to prepare for these outcomes and attempt to foresee risk and opportunities.

Over the weekend, we expecting Hurricane Irma to hit Florida and most of the South US, one should be asking the question, “How will this drive the markets over the next few weeks/months?” Let’s explore this question with some hard data and analysis.

US Population Density

The population in the South Eastern US is rather dense. There are also a number of key economic locations that could be disrupted if the storms starts to drift eastward.

Economic Output by Region

Consider that the South Eastern US represents a minimum of 1.6~2.2% annual GDP output.

When one considers the amount of destruction, disruption and economic decline that could be the immediate result of disasters such as hurricanes, one has to think about how the global markets will react to this level and type of event?

In comparison to the other geographic regions of the US, the South Eastern portion of the US still represents a substantially large portion of annual economic output/activity.

A massive disruption as well as asset revaluation event could cause a “blip” in the US GDP representing at least 2~3 tenths of a percent and could result in hundreds of billions in actual losses, economic output losses and infrastructure destruction.

Because of this, and other potential future events, we are concerned that the US markets may be headed for a correction event or bear market event in the near future. In the past, we have attempted to illustrate this potential by highlighting cycle events, key market breakouts and trends and, most recently, highlighted the 3-7-10 year cycle structures that play out in all markets. Now, we are setting up for an event that may unfold over the next 30~90 days as a “swan type event” that few are preparing for.

The US Dollar continues to slide. Our analysis showed that $92 was key support. Recently this level has been broken and we are concerned that the US Dollar may continue to slide lower. Overall, in terms of global competition, this may not be a tremendous hit. But in terms of purchasing power and the existing dominance of the US Dollar for trade, we could see some pressure in other areas.

In relation, our custom China/SE Asia Index is pushing toward the upward range of our price channel and could rotate lower on a Swan-type event (like a debt issue or political issue).

Oil is breaking downward as these global events and the transition to slower consumption continues to drive supply higher and higher. We could continue to see Oil based “Mini Swan Events” in countries that are dependent on Oil prices and income to support their economies.

US Banking and Insurance firms are sure to take increased risks with these types of events. As borrowers are displaced because of a “Swan type Event” and refocus on immediate needs/issues, delinquencies in mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and others will spike (quickly). This becomes a matter of survival (much like after the 2009 Credit Market Crisis) where people made choices to support immediate needs and not long term credit needs.

Metals, of course, have already started to make a move higher because of the risk of these events and global risks. Although, we still believe a short-term move lower (almost like a relief move) will play out over the next few weeks that will be the opportunity we have been waiting for. This move will allow investors to position metals trades for the potential longer term Swan event outcomes.

Lastly, our US Custom Index is continuing to provide a much clearer and defined picture of the Head-n-Shoulders formation that has us fixated on the potential of our VIX Spike dates, major cycle events, key rotations and, now, these potentially massive “Swan type events” to correlate into almost a Super-Swan Event. These hurricanes are passing events – they go away eventually. An economic event is something that takes much longer to resolve and restore. Much like the 2009 Credit Market Crisis, the results of a Swan type event can be long lasting and can result in massive asset revaluation.

We’re not saying the global markets are going to fall into another 2009 type event, but we are saying that our analysis is showing that “some type of event is setting up and IF it turned into a Super Swan event, then YOU (the investor) need to be aware of this potential”. If it simply turns into a correction or minor downturn, then you still need to be aware of this potential so you can profit from it – either way.

What will it take to setup and execute a series of trades that help protect against this type of possible Swan Event?

Join Active Trading Partners [visit here] today to learn more and follow our daily research reports to assist you in preparing for just this type of event. There is not a lot of time left before these potential events begin to play out. ATP will assist you by finding great trading opportunities and keeping you informed of the markets setups and potential moves/cycles.

Are you ready for the next Super-Swan Event? If not, join Active Trading Partners today.