It has been a bumpy ride for precious metal investors over the past couple of years and unfortunately we do not think its over just yet. But we feel fortunate to have our trading partner Chris Vermeulen on our team walking us through this.
Today Chris is telling us that the good news is that the bottom has likely been put in for gold, silver and gold miners BUT the recent rally in these metals and miner looks to be coming to an end. While we could see another pop in price over the next week or so the price, volume and momentum seem to be stalling out.
What does this mean? It means we should expect short term weakness and lower prices over the next month or two.
Here are three charts Chris posted several months. Their forecast were based off simple technical analysis using cycles, Fibonacci and price patterns. As you can see we are not trading at our key pivot level which we expect selling pressure to start to increase and eventually overpower the buyers sending the prices lower.....Click here to see Chris' complete chart work and article.
Showing posts with label patterns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label patterns. Show all posts
Friday, August 30, 2013
Monday, June 3, 2013
Seven Keys in Timing Stock Market Tops – Part II
Timing stock market tops and bottoms is risky business and we all know the more the more risk we take the more potential gain would could also made. Correctly timing a top or bottom for any investment is flat out exciting not to mention financially rewarding. But this high risk trading tactic does come with some major issues which you must FULLY understand so that you can protect your capital and self confidence.
On May 13th I wrote a special report on how to spot market tops just before they happen and how to do it with a very high probability of success. I also explain the major pit falls to be aware of so you stay on the right side of the market.
I recommend you read this special report right now.... "How to Spot and Time Stock Market Tops"
That special report truly showed you what was going to happen a few weeks before it did. Much like how this report shows you what is likely to happen in June.
Looking at the market with my YOU ARE HERE type of using cycles, volume, price patterns and momentum to forecast what is likely to unfold in the coming weeks. Depending on the time frame used for my analysis I can figure out with a high probability where price will be in a few minutes, hours or days also. Mall Market Directory – You Are Here
Stock market tops are tough to trade and time. That is because there are so many things happening in the media and emotions running wild that it’s tough to get a grasp on what you should really be focusing on to keep a level head trade around it.
Market tops are typically not an event but rather a progression that takes much longer than most individuals expect. I still find myself jumping the gun at times and I know this and have been through this process hundreds of times in various investments. The human brain is a powerful tool but emotions can force you to override your rules/strategy still.
Stop Fighting! – Bulls & Bears are BOTH Correct at this Stage
It does not matter where you go to get your stock market news and reports… Everyone is arguing their bullish or bearish case more than EVERY. There is a reason for this and it’s because the SP500, DJIA, RUT and NASDAQ appear to be entering a cycle top. What does this mean? It means the uptrend is almost over from a technical analyst point of view, and those who are have been bearish for a long time feel the market topping out more now than ever in their gut that this is the top.
Keeping it simple removing news, economic data, emotions and biases we are left with one thing which is technical analysis. This is based on price alone and that is important to remember because the only thing that pays you money for an investment is when price moves in your favor. Believe it or not price only has blips on the charts here and there which is based off news, economic data etc… In the big picture stock prices tend to lead economic data by several months and in some cases years.
So the big question is this… If price action is the only thing that pays you when trading why bother worrying about all the other opinions, news out there. That stuff only adds to the confusion and in most cases gets you on the wrong side of the market.
Timing the Market Top Conclusion:
In short, from a technical point of view the SP500 remains in an uptrend. But according to technical analysis the upside momentum is starting to slow. If we get a few more down days then the trend will flip and be down but it has not yet happened.
When the trend does reverse down you must remember that 80% of the time price will bounce back up to test near the recent highs before truly rolling over and collapsing. Think of it like a zombie movie. Just when you think you killed one it comes back to life for one last scare before its dead.
Just to touch on stock market bottoms so you do not get confused. Stock market bottoms are little different than tops so they are traded differently. I will cover them when the time comes.
Trading the market is not easy during this type of condition, which is why members and myself got long SSO on the 23rd and two days later sold out for a 3.5% gain. I am now looking to reload this week for another bounce/rally play but only time will tell if we get another setup.
The Bible for Commodity Traders....Get our free eBook on controlling your trades, money & emotions!
On May 13th I wrote a special report on how to spot market tops just before they happen and how to do it with a very high probability of success. I also explain the major pit falls to be aware of so you stay on the right side of the market.
I recommend you read this special report right now.... "How to Spot and Time Stock Market Tops"
That special report truly showed you what was going to happen a few weeks before it did. Much like how this report shows you what is likely to happen in June.
Looking at the market with my YOU ARE HERE type of using cycles, volume, price patterns and momentum to forecast what is likely to unfold in the coming weeks. Depending on the time frame used for my analysis I can figure out with a high probability where price will be in a few minutes, hours or days also. Mall Market Directory – You Are Here
Stock market tops are tough to trade and time. That is because there are so many things happening in the media and emotions running wild that it’s tough to get a grasp on what you should really be focusing on to keep a level head trade around it.
Market tops are typically not an event but rather a progression that takes much longer than most individuals expect. I still find myself jumping the gun at times and I know this and have been through this process hundreds of times in various investments. The human brain is a powerful tool but emotions can force you to override your rules/strategy still.
Stop Fighting! – Bulls & Bears are BOTH Correct at this Stage
It does not matter where you go to get your stock market news and reports… Everyone is arguing their bullish or bearish case more than EVERY. There is a reason for this and it’s because the SP500, DJIA, RUT and NASDAQ appear to be entering a cycle top. What does this mean? It means the uptrend is almost over from a technical analyst point of view, and those who are have been bearish for a long time feel the market topping out more now than ever in their gut that this is the top.
Keeping it simple removing news, economic data, emotions and biases we are left with one thing which is technical analysis. This is based on price alone and that is important to remember because the only thing that pays you money for an investment is when price moves in your favor. Believe it or not price only has blips on the charts here and there which is based off news, economic data etc… In the big picture stock prices tend to lead economic data by several months and in some cases years.
So the big question is this… If price action is the only thing that pays you when trading why bother worrying about all the other opinions, news out there. That stuff only adds to the confusion and in most cases gets you on the wrong side of the market.
Timing the Market Top Conclusion:
In short, from a technical point of view the SP500 remains in an uptrend. But according to technical analysis the upside momentum is starting to slow. If we get a few more down days then the trend will flip and be down but it has not yet happened.
When the trend does reverse down you must remember that 80% of the time price will bounce back up to test near the recent highs before truly rolling over and collapsing. Think of it like a zombie movie. Just when you think you killed one it comes back to life for one last scare before its dead.
Just to touch on stock market bottoms so you do not get confused. Stock market bottoms are little different than tops so they are traded differently. I will cover them when the time comes.
Trading the market is not easy during this type of condition, which is why members and myself got long SSO on the 23rd and two days later sold out for a 3.5% gain. I am now looking to reload this week for another bounce/rally play but only time will tell if we get another setup.
The Bible for Commodity Traders....Get our free eBook on controlling your trades, money & emotions!
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Option Trading: A Basic Explanation of Debit Spreads
Welcome back to the world of options. My reality exists in three dimensions and far more combinations of potential positions than does the one-dimensional world of the stock trader.
The view from my turret is ruled by the three primal forces of options — time to expiration, price of the underlying, and implied volatility. Consider for a moment the fact that each of these factors can independently impact a given option.
Multiply this by several available expiration dates and strike prices; add in the fact that individual option positions can include a variety of short and long positions at different strikes and expirations, and the potential combinations that make up an option position in a single underlying can approach a very large number.
For those traders first beginning to navigate this unfamiliar world, I think it is important to understand trade selection is manageable. There are certain families of trades that are unified by similar characteristics.
It is important to become familiar with the various trade constructions available to the knowledgeable options trader. Grouping the potential trades into related groups dramatically reduces the number of trade setups you must consider before entering a new trade.
If you are familiar with the various trade constructions, it makes discussion of a specific family member whom we may consider for employment in a trade far easier to understand.
Description of the family characteristics will take a little time, but it forms the framework on which we can hang the individual trades we will discuss in future postings.
I want readers to begin to become familiar with these patterns because it is these families of multi-legged option trades that we will return to on a regular basis to consistently perform for us.
Let me begin discussion of the various families by pointing out the redheaded stepchild of the trade constructions available. This family member, the single-legged position of being long either a put or call, is not completely without utility.
The reason for its seldom use is that for the knowledgeable options trader, this position rarely represents the best risk / reward structure given the variety of available trade constructions.
One basic and important family is that of the vertical spread. We will return several times to this family not only because of its utility in its basic form, but also because these spreads form the basic building blocks for more advanced spreads such as butterflies and iron condors.
The basic vertical spread is constructed by both buying and selling an option of the same type, either puts or calls, within the same expiration series. This is a directional spread with one breakeven point that reaches maximum profitability at expiration or when the spread has moved deep in-the-money.
It has a defined maximum profit and defined maximum loss when established. The spread is used to trade directionally in a capital efficient manner and largely neutralizes impacts of changes in implied volatility.
There are four individual vertical spread family members — the call debit spread, the call credit spread, the put debit spread, and the put credit spread. Each has its distinct and defining construction pattern. These are not the only names by which these spreads are known. Trying to keep independent option traders confined to a single set of terminologies is like trying to herd cats — it is not going to happen.
For this reason, the additional confusing and duplicative names for these spreads include bull call spread, bear call spread, bear put spread, and bull put spread. To make matters even more confusing, traders often refer to “buying a call spread” or “selling a put spread.” This multiplicity of names for the same trade structure is mightily confusing to those getting used to my world.
I am a visual learner and find that a picture is worth well more than the often cited thousand words. When I review in my mind the various option families available to use in trade construction, I think of the characteristic family portrait of each as displayed in the profit and loss, or P&L, curve.
Attached below is the first in our series of family portraits, but remember within this framework is abundant room for individual variation.
We will see trades displayed in this format with many variations as we meet the different families. The solid red line represents the profit or loss at expiration. The dotted line represents the P&L curve today and the dashed line the curve halfway to options expiration from today.
In future articles I will discuss other trade constructions that are regularly employed by experienced option traders. Until then, be sure to manage your risk accordingly.
In 2012 subscribers of my options trading newsletter have won 12 out of 13 trades. That’s a 92% win rate, pocketing serious gains with the trades focusing only on low risk credit spread options strategies.
If you are looking for a simple one trade per week trading style then be sure to join Option Trading Signals.com today with our 14 Day Trial
Labels:
employment,
J.W. Jones,
options,
patterns,
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Thursday, October 20, 2011
Crude Oil Analysis & How To Trade Oil Report
How to trade oil is not an easy thing to do in today’s headline driven market. Even the best oil analysis which may have been correct will still be wrong at times. This is due to the fact that oil has many factors which play into its price. Things likes like extreme weather conditions, geopolitical events, currency fluctuations, economic conditions and supply and demand.
During any time of the day oil traders and their oil analysis stand a good chance of having one of these factors directly affect the price of crude oil messing up their charts.
Another important aspect of trading crude oil along with stocks and commodities is for you to understanding how to trade price and volume at an intraday time frame. If you don’t understand candle sticks, chart patterns and volume will get your head handed to you more times than not.
Let’s take a look at some charts which cover everything you need to know in great detail…...
How to Trade Oil Daily Chart Analysis:
Below you can see clearly how the overall trend is down for oil. You can also see the repeated bearish patterns and key resistance levels. In my oil analysis I focus on finding and trading the trend. You will not find me trying to pick a major top or bottom with my strategy; rather I focus on low risk high probability continuation patterns within a trend.Once the trend stops and reverses there will likely be one or two losing trades as the investment shakes things up and sentiment slowly comes around and shifts to support the new trend in oil.
Intraday Crude Oil Analysis:
This is a chart of Oct 19th using a 5 minute interval. The annotations on the chart explain clearly what I saw and was hoping to see for an oil etf trade setup this week.
How To Trade Oil Conclusion:
In short, I have been waiting for this setup to unfold for a few days now. This report goes to show that if you have the patients to site back, watch and wait you will trade with much less risk. By doing this you reduce risk on your overall position because you can time your entry 1-3 days before oil moves in your favour getting you the best possible price. Also the less time you have to keep your money in a trade the better because of the factors (news events) I told you about earlier. Cash is king! Get my bi-weekly reports and videos by joining my free oil newsletter here at The Gold and Oil Guy.Com
Chris Vermeulen
Labels:
analysis,
bearish,
Chris Vermeulen,
commodity,
Crude Oil,
patterns,
resistance,
Stocks,
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