Why Gold Could Soar Another 353%

By Justin Spittler

Gold is on the rise again. It’s climbed for two straight weeks, and it’s now up nearly 5% since December 15. Many precious metals investors couldn’t be happier about this. You see, gold stormed out of the gate last year. It had its strongest first quarter since 1986. By the end of June, it had risen 25%. Things were looking up. Then, the market changed course. Gold plunged 18% in just four months. Last month, it hit its lowest level since last February.

• The sharp pullback spooked precious metals investors….
But regular Dispatch readers knew that gold would rebound. After such an explosive start to 2016, it was only natural for gold to “take a breather.” We urged you to not lose sight of the big picture. As we often remind you, gold’s a safe-haven asset. Investors buy it when they’re worried about the economy, financial system, or politics. And right now, investors have plenty of reasons to be worried, even if some are still enjoying the “Trump Honeymoon” phase.

• Louis James thinks gold will keep rising….
Louis is our chief resource expert. He is the editor of International Speculator and Casey Resource Investor, our advisories dedicated to resource stocks with big upside. According to Louis, gold has struggled recently because investors expect interest rates to rise. They have good reason to think this, too. After all, the Federal Reserve just raised its key interest rate… but for only the second time since 2006. It also said that it plans to lift rates three more times this year. Conventional wisdom tells us that this is bad for gold. Since gold doesn’t pay interest like a bond, most investors don’t want to own it when rates are rising or are likely to rise.

• According to Louis, the market has already “priced in” higher interest rates….
This means gold shouldn’t fall if the Fed sticks to its plan and raises rates three more times this year. Of course, that’s a big “if.” Heading into last year, the Fed said it wanted to raise rates four times. But it only raised rates once last year, and it waited until the eleventh hour to pull the trigger. We wouldn’t be surprised if the Fed sits on its hands again. If that happens, investors will know something is very wrong with the economy. Many folks will start buying gold hand over fist.

• But that’s not the only reason Louis is bullish on gold.…
Last week, he gave his subscribers several reasons why gold should keep rising:

➢ Rumors of new gold curbs in India have not panned out.
➢ Fear of the fall of New Rome [the EU] is driving Europeans into [U.S.] dollars and gold.
➢ The escalation of the “other” Cold War with China increases uncertainty in global markets.
➢ Even Trump’s best ideas (cuts in taxes and regulations) will cause disruptions that will have to work through the economy before things can improve.

• Gold is incredibly cheap, too.…
Louis explains:

Gold needs to rise another US$900 or so to hit a new inflation-adjusted high. Given the trillions and trillions of new dollars, euros, yen, yuan, and so forth printed over the last 45 years, it should do much more than that.

Right now, gold is trading for about $1,180. In other words, it would have to climb about 75% to reach its previous inflation-adjusted high.
But Louis thinks gold could race well past that in the coming years:

Many analysts see the current market as analogous to the great gold bull of the 1970s, only bigger and longer. Adjusted for inflation, gold rose about 353% from its mid-1970s trough to its 1980 peak. If that pattern repeats itself, gold would have to rise from its December 2015 low to just above US$5,200 per ounce by October 2022.

If gold does anything close to what it did during the ’70s, precious metals investors could see explosive gains in the very near future. Just take a look at the chart below.

• Louis is so convinced that gold’s headed higher, he just made a giant bet on it…

He wrote last week:

I’m so sure, I put my money where my mouth is last week. As advised last month, I entered the market during the peak of Tax Loss Season. I’m not allowed to buy the same stocks I recommend (to avoid possible conflicts of interest), so I bought ETFs instead. In fact, I put about twice as much of my own cash into these proxies for gold stocks than I ever put into gold stocks before.

Louis also plans to buy more gold at the first chance he gets:

I think that 2016 was an overture for what’s ahead. I intend to profit from it. And I’m not worried about any fluctuations in the near term. If prices drop, I’ll hope to buy more. If prices rise, it’s off to the races.

• You, too, can make huge profits from rising gold prices.…
The key is to buy gold mining stocks. Gold miners are leveraged to the price of gold. This means gold doesn’t have to rise much for them to take off. During the 2000–2003 gold bull market, the average gold stock gained 602%. The best ones soared 1,000% or more. Of course, not every gold company is a winner. In fact, many gold stocks are total duds. That’s because gold mining is an incredibly difficult business. To protect your capital and make monster gains, you have to own the right gold stocks. Unfortunately, most folks have no clue what to look for in a gold stock.

That’s where we can help.…

You see, Louis is a true industry insider. He’s visited mining projects all around the world. He’s on a first name basis with many of the world’s top mining CEOs. And he understands the geology inside and out. Louis also has a proprietary system for finding the best gold stocks. Casey Research founder Doug Casey actually taught Louis this system… after he spent decades perfecting it.

You can learn more about Louis’ system by clicking here. As you’ll see, it’s delivered giant gains over and over again. Just don’t wait too long. Gold probably won’t stay cheap for much longer… meaning you’ll want to take action soon to have a shot at truly life changing gains. Click here to learn more.

Chart of the Day

Gold stocks are dirt cheap, too.

Today’s chart compares the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI), which tracks large gold stocks, with the price of gold. The lower the ratio, the cheaper gold stocks are relative to gold. According to this ratio, gold stocks are cheaper today than they ever were during the dot com bubble. They’re also cheaper than they ever were during the last housing bubble.

Keep in mind, stocks were trading near record highs during these periods. Most investors were extremely bullish. They owned too many mainstream stocks and not enough gold stocks. Right now, this key ratio is lower than it was during either period. This tells us that today could be one of the best times to buy gold stocks since the turn of the century.

If you would like to add gold stocks to your portfolio, we encourage you to sign up for International Speculator. As we said earlier, this is our publication dedicated to gold stocks with the most upside. 

Click here to begin your risk-free trial.

The article Why Gold Could Soar Another 353% was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

How You Can Play to Win When Market Makers Are Calling the Shots

By Dennis Miller

The American Legion sponsored a carnival every summer when I was a young lad. My dad was a legionnaire, so each year I had a job. Beginning at age 12, I hauled soft drinks and food to the various concession booths well into the night, which probably violated some labor laws.

Dad warned me about the carnival barkers, telling me to never play games where you try to win a giant teddy bear. They were rigged, he said, and no one ever wins—“So don’t waste your money.”

I questioned Dad’s advice when I saw other boys carrying giant teddy bears to the delight of cute teenage girls. So I quietly watched some of the games. Some people won silly goldfish, but few won the giant teddy bear.

Then I befriended some of the carnival workers and told them what my dad had said. To my surprise, they took his remarks personally. Each one stepped outside his booth to demonstrate just how easy it was to win by pinging ducks or knocking over little stuffed clowns with ease. The guy who shot the BBs told me to ignore the rear sights because they were off center. He also told me exactly where to hit the moving duck to make it go down. Ping, ping, ping! He knocked them down one after another.

He argued that the game was not rigged; if it were, eventually no one would play. But the odds were tilted toward those who practiced. I tried it, lost a dollar (one hour’s pay), and realized it was cheaper to buy the teddy bear than to spend the money to learn how to win consistently.

I think about those carnival games often, when friends and readers ask about market makers, brokers who help keep markets liquid and profit in the process. Do they just hold a unique position, or is something fishy going on?

24 Men Make History Under a Buttonwood Tree

Let’s take a step back to answer that question. The history of what would later become the New York Stock Exchange began in 1792, when 24 brokers and merchants signed the Buttonwood Agreement outside 68 Wall Street—under a buttonwood tree, of course.

The securities market grew, particularly in the aftermath of the War of 1812, and in 1817, a group of brokers established the New York Stock & Exchange Board (NYS&EB) at 40 Wall Street. At that time, stocks were traded in a “call market” during one morning and one afternoon trading session each day. A call market is exactly what it sounds like: a list of stocks was read aloud as brokers traded each in turn.

Whatever the benefits of this seemingly orderly system, it did not foster liquidity, and in 1871 the exchange, which had been rechristened as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in 1863, began trading stocks continually throughout the day. Under the new system, brokers dealing in one stock stayed put at a set location on the trading floor. This was the birth of the specialist.

Designated Market Makers (DMMs), who are assigned to various securities listed on the exchange, have since replaced specialists. DMMs are one type of market marker, which are broker-dealers who streamline trading and make markets more liquid by posting bid and ask prices and maintaining inventories of specific shares.

Since the NYSE is an auction-based market, where traders meet in-person on the floor of the exchange, the DMMs, who represent firms, maintain a physical presence on the floor. Unlike the NYSE, the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) is an exclusively electronic exchange. Plus, it has approximately 300 competing market makers (not physically present at the exchange). Stocks listed on the Nasdaq have an average of 14 market makers per stock, and they are all required to post firm bid and ask prices.

Why Market Makers Matter to Retail Investors

You may be thinking, “That’s great, but why should any of this matter to me?” Well, because the existence of market makers should affect a few of your trading habits—for thinly traded stocks in particular.

Trades are not automatically executed via magical computer elves. When you place a buy or sell order (likely via the Internet), your broker can choose how to execute your trade.

When you place an order for a stock listed on the NYSE or some other exchange, your broker can pass that order on to that particular exchange, or it can send it to another exchange, such as a regional exchange. However, your broker also has the option of sending your order to a third market maker, a firm ready to buy and sell at a publicly quoted price. It’s worthwhile to note that some market makers actually pay brokers to route orders their way—say, a about penny or so per share.

On the other hand, your broker will likely send your order for a stock traded on the Nasdaq, an over-the-counter market, to one of the competing Nasdaq market makers.

And of course, your broker can always fill your order out of its own inventory in order to make money on the spread—the difference between the purchase and sale prices. Or it can send your order (limit orders in particular), to an electronic communications network (ENC), where buy and sell orders of the same price are automatically matched.

With that in mind, there are two steps you should take to make the most of your trades:

Always place orders at limit prices, as opposed to market prices.

As of Tuesday, the price for Coca-Cola is a bid of $41.23, and the ask price is $41.24; the spread is a penny.

If you put in an order to buy at $41.24, a market maker could buy at $41.23 and sell it to you for $41.24, pocketing a penny per share. If you buy 100 shares, they make $1.00. That is their profit for making the market.

If you put an order in at “market,” it can cost you a lot more. The depth of the current bids goes all the way down to buy at $34.01 (there are a couple of orders to buy KO for $22.12 and even one as low as $3.00, but the probability they will be filled is negligible), and the sell side goes up to $53.68 (again, there is one order to sell KO at $88 but this investor won’t find a counterparty in his right mind that would take it). That means there are currently orders sitting with the market maker to be executed at those respective prices.

If the market maker sees a market order, he would buy the stock at $41.23 and sell it at a much higher price. A market order is basically a license for the market maker to steal. You want the best price for any stock you’re trading; entering a market order will ensure you don’t get it.

The spreads for thinly traded stocks are generally larger. If you want to buy, you can offer a lower price than the bid, or perhaps a penny higher. If you want to trade several thousand shares, consider doing so in small tranches, so you don’t show your full hand to the market maker.

Know the role market makers play when executing stop losses.

For the Miller's Money Forever portfolio we generally set a trailing stop loss when we buy a stock. Entering a stop loss order with your broker will automatically generate a sell order should the stock drop to that number. A market maker can see that number and may drop down to buy your stock at the low price and then resell it for a profit.

As a practical matter, I set stop losses for big companies like Coca-Cola that trade millions of shares per day. The stop loss was there for a reason, and I don’t want to risk the price dropping further before I can sell it.

Some pundits think you should never enter a stop loss with your broker. They prefer another method: a stop loss alert, which many brokerage firms offer. They notify you through an email or text message if the stock drops to the stop loss price, and then you can go to your computer and enter the sell order. We always use the alert for thinly traded stocks, so we’re less vulnerable to an aggressive market maker.

If you are concerned about showing your hand to the market maker, by all means, use a stop loss alert. If you think the risk associated with stop losses is minimal for high-volume stocks, you may want to use both stop losses and stop loss alerts, depending on the stock.

Whether any of this means the market is “rigged,” I’ll leave to those $500-per-hour lawyers to hash out. This is the game we’re playing, so it’s critical to understand the rules, whether we like them or not.

Whether you’re a retail investor or just a guy shooting at moving ducks at a carnival, you need knowledge and skills to succeed. My free weekly missive, Miller’s Money Weekly, exists for that very reason. We provide retirement investors with the education and tools essential for a rich retirement. Receive your complimentary copy each Thursday by signing up here.

The article How You Can Play to Win When Market Makers Are Calling the Shots was originally published at Millers Money

Make sure to check out our "Beginners Guide to Trading Options"....Just Click Here!

Christmas Rally Starts Monday....My ETF Trading Strategies

Our trading partner Chris Vermeulan says "Tis the Season for the most powerful seasonality trade of the year". Do you agree?


With the stock market up big in 2013 and most participants are speculating on a pullback in the next week or two, Chris says he is on the other side of that bet. Being a technical trader he focuses on patterns, statistics and probabilities to power his ETF trading strategies. So with 37 years of stats the seasonality chart of the S&P 500 index paints a clear picture of what is likely to happen in December.

If you do not know how to read a seasonality chart, Chris will explain it as its very simple. Simply put, it shows what the index has done on average through each month over the past 37 years. December typically has the strongest up trend and probability of happening any other time of the year.

The Big Board – NYSE
 
The NYSE also referred to as the Big Board, is an index with the largest brand name companies. Most individuals do not follow this, but to Chris its as close to the holy grail of trading than anything else he uses. he uses many different data points from this index (momentum, order flow, trend) for his ETF trading strategies.

Let's take a look at what Chris says the seasonality chart his telling us as we close our 2013 and move into 2014......Click here to check out "Christmas Rally Starts Monday....My ETF Trading Strategies"



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Holiday Squeeze on the Dollar, Gold & Stocks

The past week and a half has been as choppy as it gets for the stocks market. Thankfully the herd mentality (fear & greed) stays the same. Understanding what others think and feel when involved in the market is one of the keys to making money consistently from the market. The crazy looking chart below I will admit is a little tough on the eyes, and I should have used red and green for holiday colors but green just was not going to work today so bear with me.

Market Internal Indicators – 10 minute, 7 day chart
This is a simple chart to read if you understand how to trade these market internal indicators (NYSE volume ratio, NYSE Advance/Decline line, and Total Put/Call ratio).

It shows and explains how I get a read on the overbought/sold conditions in the market. There are several other criteria needed to pull this trade off but it is these charts which tell me to start getting ready to take partial profits, buy or take short positions.

The top section shows the NYSE volume ratio line. When the green line spikes is means there are more sellers than buyers by a large amount and I call this fear. On the other hand when he red line spikes it shows everyone is chasing the price higher because they can’t stand the thought of missing another rally. I call this greed or panic buying. You buy into fear, sell/short into greed.

Important point to note though… We are getting another sell/short signal here (Wednesday) but knowing Friday will be light volume and knowing that light volume means higher prices, I think we should get a better opportunity to short this new down trend next week at possibly a higher level. The market may have a short squeeze in the next 2-3 days. Just so you know, a short squeeze is when the market breaks to the upside on light volume forcing the short positions to cover. This creates a pop in price, only for it to drop quickly after. But, if we get a pop with solid volume behind it, then we could just see the up trend start again and we would then look to play the long side. Only time will tell…

Rising Dollar & Gold – I Don’t Get It?
That is the question everyone seems to be asking this week. I think what we are seeing is straight forward. Traders/investors are selling Euros because of the issues overseas and are buying the dollar along with gold and silver.

Generally when the dollar raises gold drops, but they are both moving up in sync, and really I don’t see the problem with this as it has happened many times in the past. Currently I am neutral on gold and silver because of this situation though. I feel something is about to happen in a week or so that will change things in a big way.

Mid-Week Gold, Dollar & Stock Trading Conclusion:
In short, the equities market is now in a down trend and overbought here. It’s prime for a short position but with the holiday, light volume Friday, and most likely a follow through buying session on Monday I think its best to sit in cash without the stress of wondering what will happen on Monday. Just enjoy the holiday.

Recently members had a great short play locking in 2.2% gain on one of our positions this week as we shorted the market using the SDS inverse SP500 ETF. We also continue to hold two other positions with a 22 and 24% gain thus far and I think going into year end things are really going to heat up.

To receive Chris Vermeulen's Real Time ETF Trading Alerts visit The Gold and Oil Guy.Com




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What is Next for the Dollar, SP500 and Gold

The equities market reversed to the upside Wednesday posting a light volume broad based rally. Remember light volume tends to have a neutral to upward bias on stocks, But it was mainly the sharp drop in the dollar which spurred stocks and commodities higher.

Today’s bounce was not much of a surprise for several reasons…
• Overall trend is up, one day sell offs are generally profit taking
• Panic selling on the NYSE tipped us off that the market was oversold
• I don’t think they will let the market fall before the November election
• Intermediate cycle is turning up this week, 3 weeks of upward momentum…

US Dollar Index – 4 Hour Chart
The dollar put in a big bounce this week filling its gap window… Remember most gaps get filled with virtually every investment vehicle so when you see them remember this chart....

SPY ETF – Daily Chart
SP500 has been riding the key moving average up and Tuesday’s sell off tagged the 14MA along with extreme market internal readings telling intraday traders that a bounce is about to take place.

Gold Futures – Daily Chart
You can see gold has done much the same… A sharp profit/stop running sell off, which took the price back down to support. We took a long position to catch this bounce and hopefully a larger move going forward.

Market Sentiment Readings
Tuesday’s pullback was a great reminder of just how over extended the equities market was. These heavy volume sell offs are typical in a bull market. Without regular pauses in price, traders tend to place trailing stops moving them up each day. With traders chasing stocks higher bidding them up instead of waiting for a pullback we get a very large number to stop orders following the price up each day. Then, it’s only a matter of time before a key short term support level is broken at which point the flood gates open and everyone’s stops turn to market orders flooding the stock exchanges with sell orders causing a rapid decline and panic selling. This is exactly what happened on Tuesday which I show in the chart below.

Understanding how to read market internals provides great insight for short term traders looking to make quick high probability trades every week… Market internals are just part of the equation but very powerful on their own with proper money/position management. Both of these intraday extremes were bought on Tuesday in the advanced chatroom (FuturesTradingSignals.com).. We quickly booked profits and moved our stops up in order to protect our capital as the market surged higher.

Mid-Week Market Trend Analysis:
In short, the US Dollar is still in a down trend overall. The Fed’s I would think will continue to hold the market up into the election. It works well for them… they print money which devalues the dollar, and in return boosts stocks and commodities, plus they get trillions of dollars to spend… I’m sure its like kids in a candy store over there.

While everyone is trying to pick a top in this over extended market I think it is crucial to stick with the overall trend and to not fight the Fed. Using the key moving averages on the daily chart as shown in the charts above, continue to buy on dips until the market closes below the 20 day moving average at which point you should abandon ship.

Get My Reports and Trade Ideas Here for Free at The Gold and Oil Guy

Chris Vermeulen


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