Thursday, August 3, 2017

Could There Be a Reversal Coming to the Major U.S. Markets?

Technically speaking, this week could be very important for the major U.S. equity markets. There is an appearance of a “TOPPING PATTERN” forming. I am now awaiting confirmation by the actions of the equity markets, this week. Expect downward pressure beginning this month of August of 2017.

The Only Chart You Need To See!



There is currently limited upside potential in the SPX relative to potential downside for the months of August, September and the early part of October 2017.

There are signs for the short, intermediate and longer term trends returning for the best six months of trading officially inaugurated in November of 2017! This is the timing framework when ‘The Next Runaway Leg Up In The Stock Market Will Resume.’

In last weeks’ market action as the profit taking rotation out of the high-tech sector rotated into the Dow Industrials, it reflected

a more defensive approach while being invested in “Blue Chips” during which time it achieved a new high. Sector rotation increased especially noticeable in the transports and technology sectors that were leading the markets higher. If they continue lower, more sectors will join the decline. I am expecting a coming pop in the VIX on Aug 4, Aug 23, Sept 11 or 12 and finally Sept 28 or 29. 2017. There was a flight to safety in the Yen as well as a strengthening of the price of Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and WTI Crude Oil.

An Unusual Anomaly

Over the past couple of weeks, there was this unusual Anomaly which occurred, as you can see in the chart below. It now makes me more cautious about our long understanding of “risk interconnectivity”.

How can the equity, gold, silver, crude oil and bitcoin markets ALL go HIGHER together?

Tune in every morning for my video analysis and market forecasts at The Gold & Oil Guy to know where the main ‘asset classes’ are headed tomorrow, this week, and next month.



In short, the major equities trend remains to the upside but its likely to take shape in a slow grinding process with downward pressure starting in August fora couple months.

Be sure to follow my daily pre-market video forecasts and ETF trades by visiting here at The Gold and Oil Guy

Chris Vermeulen


Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Saturday, July 15, 2017

Momentum Reversal Method Strikes Again with MOBL

In early May, 2017, we alerted our followers to a trading opportunity that resulted in a nearly perfect Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) setup – this trade was MOBL (Mobileiron Inc).  Now that the trade has completed, we wanted to share with you an example of how the  MRM trading strategy works and how successful some of these setups can become.  But first, lets take a bit of time to understand what Active Trading Partners is and how we provide benefit and services to our clients.


Active Trading Partners is a research and analytics firm that specialized in US Equities, ETFs and major Commodities analysis.  Our objective is to continually provide updated research and analytics for our members as well as to actively deploy our specialized Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) trading strategy for our members use and benefit.  As many of you may remember, on June 11 2017, we posted our research that the “NASDAQ would sell off” and the “VIX would SPIKE” on or near June 29th, 2017.  How many of you would have loved to know that we predicted a 6% swing in the NASDAQ and a 52% swing in the VIX two weeks in advance on the EXACT DAY it happened? 
What we are trying to illustrate to you is that we attempt to provide value beyond our trading signals and beyond our daily updates.  We attempt to keep you aware of what is likely to happen in the global markets and how these swings can be advantageous for you as traders/investors.  So, before we get sidetracked on the extras we provide, lets focus on this MOBL trade.
MOBL began to appear on our MRM alerts in early April 2017.  As with many of the MRM type of setups, they begin can sometimes start to alert us to setups days or weeks in advance of the actual move.  In this case, classic technical and Fibonacci analysis assisted in confirming our MRM trigger.  The MRM setup was valid and we simply wanted to watch the MRM setup for signs of price volume/rotation.  We often use this price/volume rotation trigger as a means of setting up entry functions for pending MRM triggers.
In early May 2017, the price/volume rotation trigger was complete and now we had a valid entry into MOBL with projected targets of $5.45 and $6.25.  Our analysts identify the targets based on recent price action, where our entry is located and current price/volume rotation levels.  In other words, if we believe the move will be short term, then we will adjust our targets to focus on immediate objectives.  If we believe the move will be a bit longer-term, then we will adjust our targets to focus on that objective.
Just to be clear, everything originates from the MRM trigger.  We may see 20 or 30 of these triggers each week.  From there, price confirmation MUST occur or have already happened in order for it to be considered for our ATP members.  Additionally, we attempt to gauge the overall global markets in terms of risk parameters for each MRM setup/trigger.  If the US majors or global markets are weak and fearful, then we’ll address that risk by being more selective of our MRM triggers and setups.  If our analysts believe the US and global markets are going to continue to trend, then we may widen our risk parameters a bit more.

On May 11th, 2017, we issued a BUY Swing Trade Alert for MOBL @ $4.65 for a FULL Position.  This exact alert read as follows:
Buy Symbol : MOBL
Max Buy Price: $4.85 or lower
Position Size: FULL
Stop loss: Close below $3.95
Target: $5.45, then $6.25 objective for a 17~35%+ swing potential
Enter FULL position below $4.85 today. A move above $5.35 is expected with a potential for a move above $6.50 later.
As you can see from these charts, we executed the MOBL trade flawlessly. The first target was hit only 6 trading days after entry for a +17% gain.  The second target took a bit longer, but it was eventually hit  26 trading days after entry (about one month after entry).  It was just prior to the second target being hit that our research team indicated that MOBL could run much higher and that we should alert our members that we are going to use Target #2 as a stop adjustment and attempt to let this position run.  Typically, we get about 2~4 of these types of trades each calendar year for our members – you know, the big breakout runners that can turn into 30%, 50%, 120% or more.



When all was said and done, Our VIX/NASDAQ analysis was perfect and the rotation in the tech markets resulted in our MOBL trade getting stopped out July 3rd, 2017 @ $5.85 for a +25.6% gain.  

This single trade resulted in a +$4000 total return for our members – this one trade will cover their ActiveTradingPartners.com membership for almost FOUR YEARS.  Believe it or not, we are expecting MOBL to generate another MRM setup soon that could allow us to re-enter this trade for the next run higher.



This is an excellent example of how our Momentum Reversal Method strategy works and provides benefits for our clients.  Not only do you receive these timely and accurate triggers, but you also receive our advanced research and market analysis.  Like we said early, we alerted our members to a critical June 29th market move two weeks before it happened and our analysis hit perfectly.  We like to ask our clients and viewers this question, “isn’t it time you invested in your future?”.  We would really like to help you achieve greater success and find greater opportunities in the markets, but you have to subscribe at Active Trading Partners .com for this to happen.
Isn’t it time you invested in quality, logical trade research your future? CLICK HERE TO JOIN

Chris Vermeulen
aka the Gold and Oil Guy


Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Sunday, June 11, 2017

Do These Three Things to Profit When Stocks Fall

By Jeff Clark, editor, Delta Report

The stock market has entered “the worst six months of the year.” The S&P 500 makes its best gains between November 1 and April 30. The period between May 1 and October 31 tends to be negative. The exact historical figures vary depending on who you ask. But there’s a good reason the Wall Street cliché machine advises to “sell in May and go away.” Stocks don’t do very well this time of year. And most of the major stock market disruptions of my lifetime occurred during this six month window.

Smart investors should take some time off. Enjoy the fruits of the “Trump rally.” Cash in your 13% gain on the S&P 500 since last Halloween and enjoy the summer. We’ll see you back in the action in time for Thanksgiving. But, if you want to make some money while the rest of the world is losing it, then stick around. Smarter investors could have the best six months ever.

Think about this for a moment…
Over the past 20 years, the Volatility Index (VIX)—a measure of the price investors are willing to pay to insure their portfolios against a significant market decline—has traded between a low of about 10 to a high of about 80. Recently, the VIX closed at 11—one of the lowest readings in the past 20 years. This happened at a time when the S&P 500 closed near an all time high. So with the broad stock market trading at its highest level ever, insurance is about as cheap as it has been in the past 20 years.

In other words, as we enter the worst six months of the year, put options—bets that the stock market will fall—are as cheap as they’ve been in two decades. This is a remarkable opportunity to profit as stock prices decline. Speculators can risk relatively small amounts of capital and achieve HUGE returns if stock prices fall. But there are a few tricks to profiting on the downside.

How to Profit as Stocks Fall
Over the long term, stocks go up. Don’t argue about it. That’s just how it is. The stock market moves higher over time. So short sellers—those folks who profit as stock prices fall—face an uphill battle.
Of course, there are situations where short sellers will ultimately profit even if the broad stock market moves higher.

For example, companies that commit fraud, take on insane amounts of leverage, or overhype a fad business almost always eventually crash and burn. But opportunities to short the stock in these firms are few and far between. For the most part, traders who are looking to short sell are going to trade on momentum. They’re going to look for overbought situations that look ready to reverse.

They’re going to buy cheap, out of the money put options. They’re going to be lightning fast, taking profits as the trade moves in their favor. And they’re not going to stress out about losing 100% on a trade because they kept their position size small enough to digest the loss.

How This Great Trade Went South
Let me tell you a story about the absolute best and worst put option trade I’ve ever seen. The trader made the most money I’ve ever seen on one put option trade, then he gave it all back. In September 1987, I was running the trading desk for a small regional brokerage firm. We had a handful of big name clients, folks who appeared regularly on the Financial News Network (the precursor to CNBC). One of these clients was a value oriented newsletter writer. His investment style was ultra-conservative and ultra-prudent.

So in September 1987, when this client bought a large number of put options on the S&P 100 (OEX), I took note. It was the first option position this client had ever purchased. He was buying these put options to hedge his managed-money portfolios against a sudden crash in the stock market.
It worked perfectly.

When the stock market crashed on October 19, 1987, the put options this client purchased rallied enough to completely offset the decline in his stock portfolios. It was, in my opinion, the most perfect hedge anyone executed prior to the crash. But it turned out to be a disaster for his accounts. You see, the money manager never sold the options.

Despite the market crashing, despite the VIX jumping above 100, despite the options he purchased trading for 20 times the amount he paid, he wanted to maintain the hedge. He wanted to keep his insurance in case stocks dropped even more.

They didn’t....When his options expired in November, even though the broad stock market was almost 25% lower than where it was when he bought the puts, his put options expired worthless. Stocks hadn’t rallied much off the October crash bottom. The S&P 500 was maybe 5% higher. The stocks this advisor held in his managed accounts were still suffering from the crash. And he never collected from the insurance he bought to protect his clients from the crash.

His clients suffered from the decline in the market, and they suffered from paying the option premium that was supposed to protect them from a crash. So what appeared to be a brilliant move in September 1987 turned out to be an expensive mistake by late November. His clients suffered from a decline in their stock holdings, and they also suffered as the OEX put options expired worthless.

A Simple Lesson
The lesson here is simple, when you’re betting on a broad stock market decline, you need to buy cheap put options AND you need to be willing to cash out of the trade when it moves in your direction—even if you think the move will go farther.
In my experience—which goes back more than three decades—if you want to profit on the short side of trading stocks, you need to get three things right…
  1. You need to target stocks that are overextended to the upside and have negative divergence on the technical indicators.
  2. You need to buy cheap put options, and you need to be willing to lose 100% of the premium you pay for the options. It should be less of a loss than short selling the stock.
  3. You need to be willing to take profits quickly. As stocks fall, the implied volatility of the option premium increases. You don’t need to wait for the stock to achieve your downside target. The option premium will often inflate to reflect the downside potential. Be willing to sell into that.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
Editor, Delta Report


Justin's note: Tomorrow, Jeff will be releasing a brand-new presentation on what he calls “the biggest breakthrough of my career.” In it, he’ll reveal a trading strategy that he’s been developing for over five years… has a success rate of 90.2%average gains of 50%… and an average trade length of just two days.

E.B. Tucker, editor of The Casey Report, and Doug Casey have been talking all about it these past few months. They think it’s one of the most fascinating moneymaking ideas they’ve ever encountered.
Most people will be watching this presentation at 12 p.m. ET tomorrow… but as a Casey reader, E.B. will be sending you the video early, so you can start watching ahead of the crowd at 9 a.m.
We hope to see you there.


The article Do These Three Things to Profit When Stocks Fall was originally published at caseyresearch.com.



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Sunday, April 2, 2017

The First Ever ‘Codeword’ Leak

By Porter Stansberry 

Today, an emerging story about the secret civil war being waged right now in Washington D.C. It is about to have a HUGE impact on our country. Two warnings before we begin. First, what I know so far is deeply troubling. We're approaching what will be the most dangerous period in our country's political history since the Great Depression. What could happen next scares me. But I continue to be optimistic that what will unfold will be great for our country.

Also, I'm certain that you simply won't believe much of what you'll read in today's essay. In fact, until I did my own follow-up research to verify what I could from my sources, I disregarded this story as "political nonsense" or just another D.C. conspiracy theory. Besides… it was all too horrible to believe. But then… almost everything my sources told me would happen started happening.…

Let's begin here.…
Did you know the U.S. government has a secrecy designation so restricted that virtually nobody – not even lifetime members of the intelligence community – even knows what it's called? It's not "TOP SECRET." It's way beyond that level. In late 2009, President Obama created this new level of secrecy inside our government with an executive order (No. 13526) – so Congress never approved it. Administered by the CIA, this new level of secrecy has created a covert government within the government that almost nobody knows and absolutely nobody is monitoring.

If you've ever heard the term the "Deep State" – the secret government within the government that actually holds power – then you know why a level of secrecy beyond "top secret" is so important. This new, more restricted level of secrecy was created so that the most powerful leaders of our government could communicate in total isolation. This level of secrecy is such a closely guarded secret that the name of the program itself is classified – and divulging the name is a crime, punishable by at least 10 years in a secret prison. So this level of security clearance is known only as "codeword."

At the highest levels of our D.C. government, only two dozen or so people have codeword clearances.…
I learned about this earlier this month. I was invited to lunch with someone who has held that level of security clearance. He told me about the existence of the codeword-level program. This isn't a rumor. It's a fact. For the last 30-plus years, my source has worked for and around the highest levels of our government. He is currently regarded as the president's most likely choice to become our next Federal Reserve chairman. Today, however, his clients include the world's top hedge fund managers and the leaders of America's biggest corporations. He is, in short, America's corporate representative of the Deep State.

We call him the "Metropolitan Man."

We met about a year ago. He reached out to me through a mutual friend – one of the best, young hedge fund managers in New York. He asked me to join him for dinner at the Metropolitan Club in New York, one of the most elite clubs in the United States. (Legendary banker J.P. Morgan founded the club. It's where billionaire investor Warren Buffett held his 50th birthday party. And it sits at the southeast corner of Central Park, across from The Plaza Hotel, with a great vista of Columbus Circle.) At the time, the Metropolitan Man was forecasting correctly that the world's central bankers and their negative interest rate policy were failing and that they would soon trigger a global run out of paper money and into gold. Over the next several months, gold and gold stocks soared (as you may remember).

A few days ago, the Metropolitan Man asked to see me again.…
He wanted to talk about something he had never seen before in all his years working in the government. For the first time ever, a codeword-level secret was leaked to the press. Nothing this sensitive has ever been leaked before – ever. Among senior leaders in D.C., it is widely believed that the director of the CIA himself was responsible for the codeword leak. And the rumor is that this information was then passed to the press through New York Senator Chuck Schumer's office. What was leaked?

A codeword secret briefing the CIA produced about a meeting in Trump Tower last December between a Russian ambassador and two senior Trump administration officials – Jared Kushner and Michael Flynn.
When Flynn lied about the meeting to the White House staff, he was fired. But the deeper question is: How did the CIA know about the meeting? How did it know how long the meeting lasted? How did it know exactly what was discussed? And how did that information end up in the hands of a New York Times reporter?

This backstory explains how Trump knows the CIA was spying on Trump Tower. And the counternarratives – Trump's claim that Obama was spying on him and the Democrats' claim that Trump is in league with Russia – are the beginning of a serious war. A civil war inside the Deep State itself.

Reading the newspapers won't explain how this war is being fought.…
They will never publish a clear explanation of the battle lines – or even who is fighting or why. But the outcome of these battles is likely to determine the fate of our economy for the next several decades. Let me explain why and tell you what this fight is really about. For the last 40 or so years, the U.S. economy has been built around a model that created vast power in D.C. The model has a few important components.

First, we have a highly "progressive" income tax. That ensures that anyone who makes high wages will pay for the lion's share of the government's expenses. Without extremely progressive income tax rates – where about half the country pays nothing and the top 10% pay for roughly 80% – the electorate would never continue to vote for more and more government. But it does, mostly because it doesn't have to pay for it.

Second, the government has an incredibly powerful regulatory regime in place. This allows D.C. to essentially control vast segments of our economy. Take Wall Street, for example. Who gets to sell a bond or a stock to the public? Nobody the Securities and Exchange Commission doesn't like (i.e. yours truly). This power results in tremendous amounts of "tribute" – legal fees, fines, and hidden lobbying that flows into D.C. and feeds its economic ecosystem.

And finally there's the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and "free" trade. Our country has the ability to export all of the inflation generated by our central bank. This has led to decades of lower and lower interest rates and the government's ability to borrow essentially endless amounts of money without any serious inflationary consequences. These three components form the foundations of Washington's power.

Attack any of them and you risk a huge fight with the Deep State. What Trump is doing right now via his border adjustment tax, additional tax reform, and regulatory rollback is targeting all three of them at the same time. If he wins, all of the power that has been consolidated in D.C. over the past 40 years will evaporate.

Trump has put a metaphorical gun to the head of the Deep State…
And now, the Deep State is fighting back, tooth and nail, to protect the system it has built. Look at what has happened to the middle class in America over the last 40 years. Did NAFTA prevent price inflation by allowing America's consumer economy the luxury of accessing the world's cheapest labor? Yes, it did. But the flip side was devastating to the entire manufacturing industry in the U.S. And where did the resulting wealth flow? To D.C. and to the top 1% of America's wealthiest people who were able to access foreign markets and shield the resulting income from America's tax system.

Meanwhile, America remains the only industrial country in the world with global income taxation (you have to pay federal income tax, no matter where you live) and without a value-added tax. In short, we've chosen a system that punishes wage earners, while rewarding individuals and corporations who use overseas labor. The result has been a decline in real, after-tax wages over the last 40 years. That's a recipe to destroy the middle class – and that's what has happened.

Trump's plan to effectively lower income taxes to 25% and implement a value added tax to discourage foreign production of U.S. products will turn this entire economic structure on its ear and disenfranchise the Deep State that controls it. The winners will be the middle class, small business owners, wage earners, and America's manufacturing base. The losers? Those who have invested heavily in the current Deep State regime.

Why is this scary?
Well, unlike the health reform issue, the Metropolitan Man assured me that Trump's tax reform agenda would certainly pass. "It's a done deal," he said. He told me that his job lately "has been to help major corporations understand what will be in the new laws and how they will impact various markets." That means the Deep State has been pushed into a corner. What it might do next, no one knows. "That it would leak a codeword secret. Well, I would have told you that couldn't happen. I've never seen it before, not in more than 30 years in D.C. It's scary because if it'll do that, it'll do anything. Stage a terrorist attack? Start a war with China? Nothing is impossible anymore."

That's the downside. The next several months could see our government erupt into open civil war. The FBI accusing the president of treason… The president accusing a director of the CIA of breaking the law and having him arrested. Who knows where this will lead? On the other hand, assuming the government doesn't collapse into a civil war, Trump's new economic model will become a reality before the end of the year. For some industries (and for most Americans) these changes will bring massive prosperity. And for others – especially for companies and individuals who have been living at the government trough, tough times are looming.

Here's the best part.…
I believe these coming changes are so important and could lead to so much wealth creation that I've convinced the Metropolitan Man to come forward.

We will hold a meeting with him, at our offices in Baltimore, on April 5, 2017.
The meeting with start at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. It will last approximately two hours. Security will be very tight, so plan to arrive early. Everyone will be searched. At this meeting, the Metropolitan Man will "take off his mask" and tell you about his role in the Deep State. He'll explain the importance of the codeword-secret leak. And he'll discuss what the new Trump economic model will mean for various industries and parts of our country. He'll also explain how he knows the tax reform/border adjustment laws are certain to pass Congress and what those policies will mean for our country. If you'd like to attend the meeting via a live conference call, you can listen for only $19.95. Yes, that's right. $19.95.

This is easily the most important and valuable meeting I've ever arranged
It has taken more than a decade of work to gain access to information like this… And I want you to benefit from the incredible access we've gained. For successful investors and wealthy business leaders, meeting the Metropolitan Man in person and having the opportunity to ask him questions is invaluable. His normal consulting fee is $250,000. So I believe there's tremendous value at both price points. But no matter how you plan to attend, please do whatever you must to be at this meeting. There isn't a more important event you could attend this year.

Sign Up Here

Regards,
Porter Stansberry


The article The First-Ever ‘Codeword’ Leak was originally published at caseyresearch.com




Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

John Carter's Next Free Webinar "Rapid Account Growth Strategies for 2017"

Our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options is back with another one of his wildly popular free webinars. John is absolutely killing it again in 2017 and he has put together a 90 day trading plan to share with us.

He is calling this free webinar "How I Almost Doubled My Account in Less than 60 Days".

Claim Your Spot Here 

Limited seats are available and as always this one will fill up fast so get your reserved spot now. This is free training on the rapid account growth strategies that are working right now, not in 2015 or 2016....right now!

So please join us Tuesday, March 21st @ 7:00 pm central time

Here's just some of what he will cover:

  *  John F. Carter will reveal his new 90 day trading plan that will take us into the 2nd quarter of 2017

  *  With the market at all time highs John shows us how to adapt to conditions most traders haven’t seen in years

  *   John will show us how he grew his account by 82% between January and February, 2017.

  *  We'll find out what’s working now because outdated strategies could be dead wrong in current conditions.

 Just Click Here to get your seat now and we'll see you Tuesday March 21st

See you there!

Ray's Stock World







Saturday, March 11, 2017

Donald Trump, Saudi Arabia, and the Petrodollar

By Nick Giambruno

Obama pulled out his veto pen 12 times during his presidency. Congress only overrode him once. In late 2016, Obama vetoed the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA). The bill would allow 9/11 victims to sue Saudi Arabia in US courts. With only months left in office, Obama wasn’t worried about the political price of opposing the bill. It was worth protecting Saudi Arabia and the petrodollar system, which underpins the US dollar’s role as the world’s premier currency.

Congress didn’t see it that way though. Those up for reelection couldn’t afford to side with Saudi Arabia over US victims. So Congress voted to override Obama’s veto, and JASTA became the law of the land. The Saudis, quite correctly, see this as a huge threat. If they can be sued in US courts, their vast holdings of US assets are at risk of being frozen or seized.

The Saudi foreign minister promptly threatened to sell all of the country’s US assets. Basically, Saudi Arabia was threatening to rip up the petrodollar arrangement, which underpins the US dollar’s role as the world’s premier currency.

Donald Trump and the Saudis

Unlike every president since the petrodollar’s birth, Donald Trump is openly hostile to Saudi Arabia.
Recently he put this out on Twitter:


Dopey Prince @Alwaleed_Talal wants to control our U.S. politicians with daddy’s money. Can’t do it when I get elected.

The dopey prince that Trump is referring to is Al-Waleed bin Talal, a prominent member of the Saudi royal family. He’s also one of the largest foreign investors in the US economy, particularly in media and financial companies. The Saudis openly backed Hillary during the election. In fact, they “donated” an estimated $10 million–$25 million to the Clinton Foundation, making them the most generous foreign donors. Besides Hillary Clinton, the single biggest loser from the US presidential election was Saudi Arabia. The Saudis did not want Donald Trump in the White House. And not because of some bad blood on Twitter. There are real geopolitical issues at stake. At the moment, Trump seems determined to walk back on US support for the so called “moderate” rebels in Syria.

The Saudis are furious with the US for not holding up its part of the petrodollar deal. They think the US should have already attacked Syria as part of its commitment to keep the region safe for the monarchy.
Toppling Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is a longstanding Saudi goal. But a President Trump makes that unlikely. That’s not good for Saudi Arabia’s position in the Middle East, nor its relationship with the US.
This is just one of the ways President Trump will hasten the death of the petrodollar.


Saudi Arabia, Islam, and Wahhabism

I loathe quoting a neoconservative historian like Bernard Lewis, but even a broken clock is right twice a day:


Imagine if the Ku Klux Klan or Aryan Nation obtained total control of Texas and had at its disposal all the oil revenues, and used this money to establish a network of well endowed schools and colleges all over Christendom peddling their particular brand of Christianity. This is what the Saudis have done with Wahhabism. The oil money has enabled them to spread this fanatical, destructive form of Islam all over the Muslim world and among Muslims in the West. Without oil and the creation of the Saudi kingdom, Wahhabism would have remained a lunatic fringe in a marginal country.

This is actually an apt description of Wahhabism, a particularly virulent and intolerant strain of Sunni Islam most Saudis follow. ISIS, Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and a slew of other extremists also follow this puritanical brand of Islam. That’s why Saudi Arabia and ISIS use the same brutal punishments, like beheadings.
Many Wahhabis consider Muslims of any other flavor—like the Shia in Iran, the Alawites in Syria, or non-Wahhabi Sunnis—apostates worthy of death.

In many ways, Saudi Arabia is an institutionalized version of ISIS. There’s even a grim joke that Saudi Arabia is simply “an ISIS that made it.” After living in the Middle East for three years, it’s clear to me that many people in the region despise everything about Wahhabism. Yet it flourishes in certain Sunni communities, among people who feel they have nowhere else to turn.

It’s also widely believed in the Middle East that Western powers deliberately fostered Wahhabism, to a degree, to keep the region weak and divided—and as a weapon against Shia Iran and its allies. That includes Syria and post-Saddam Iraq, which has shifted its allegiance towards Iran. Thanks to WikiLeaks we know the Saudi and Qatari governments, which are also the two largest foreign donors to the Clinton Foundation, willfully financed ISIS to help topple Bashar al-Assad of Syria. Julian Assange says the email revealing this is the most significant among the Clinton related emails his group has released.

Here’s an excerpt of the relevant interview with Assange:


Interviewer: Of course, the consequence of that is that this notorious jihadist group, called ISIL or ISIS, is created largely with money from people who are giving money to the Clinton Foundation?
Julian Assange: Yes.
Interviewer: That’s extraordinary….

With all this in mind, Vladimir Putin opened an unusual conference of Sunni Muslim clerics recently. It took place in Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, a Sunni Muslim region within Russia’s southwestern border.
The conference, which included 200 of the top non-Wahhabi Sunni Muslim clerics, issued an extraordinary statement labeling Wahhabism “a dangerous deformation” of Sunni Islam. These clerics carry serious weight in the Sunni world. The imam of Egypt’s al-Azhar mosque, one of the most important Islamic theological centers, was among them. (Egypt is the Arab world’s most populous Sunni country.)

Basically, Putin gathered the world’s most important non Wahhabi clerics to “excommunicate” the Saudis from Sunni Islam. In other words, Putin is going for the jugular of the petrodollar system. Russia and Saudi Arabia have been enemies for decades. The Russians have never forgiven Saudi Arabia (or the US) for supporting the Afghan mujahedeen that drove the Soviet Army out of Afghanistan. And they haven’t forgiven the Saudis for supporting multiple Chechen rebellions. As far as I know, the British writer Robert Fisk was the only Western journalist to cover this extraordinary conference.

Here’s Fisk:
Who are the real representatives of Sunni Muslims if the Saudis are to be shoved aside? And what is the future of Saudi Arabia? Of such questions are revolutions made.

If the Saudis are shoved aside, it could strike a fatal blow to the petrodollar system. The truth is, the petrodollar system is in its death throes. It doesn’t matter if the Saudis willfully abandon it, or if it crumbles because the kingdom implodes. The end result will be the same. Right now, the stars are aligning against the Saudi kingdom. This is its most vulnerable moment since its 1932 founding.

That’s why I think the death of the petrodollar system is the No. 1 black swan event for 2017

I expect the dollar price of gold to soar when the petrodollar system crumbles in the not-so-distant future. You don’t want to find yourself on the wrong side of history when that happens. But that brings up another crucial point.

There’s also likely to be severe inflation
The petrodollar system has allowed the US government and many Americans to live way beyond their means for decades. The US takes this unique position for granted. But it will disappear once the dollar loses its premier status.

This will likely be the tipping point….

Afterward, the US government will be desperate enough to implement capital controls, people controls, nationalization of retirement savings, and other forms of wealth confiscation. I urge you to prepare for the economic and sociopolitical fallout while you still can. Expect bigger government, less freedom, shrinking prosperity and possibly worse. It’s probably not going to happen tomorrow. But it’s clear where the trend is headed. It is very possible that one day soon, Americans will wake up to a new reality.

Once the petrodollar system kicks the bucket and the dollar loses its status as the world’s premier reserve currency, you will have few, if any, options. The sad truth is, most people have no idea how bad things could get, let alone how to prepare. Yet there are straightforward steps you can start taking today to protect your savings and yourself from the financial and sociopolitical effects of the collapse of the petrodollar.

This recently released video will show you where to begin. Click here to watch it now.


The article Donald Trump, Saudi Arabia, and the Petrodollar was originally published at caseyresearch.com




Stock & ETF Trading Signals



Thursday, January 19, 2017

One Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble

By Nick Giambruno

The establishment is setting up Donald Trump. The mainstream media hates him. Hollywood hates him. The “Intellectual Yet Idiot” academia class hates him. The CIA hates him. So does the rest of the Deep State, or the permanently entrenched “national security” bureaucracy. They did everything possible to stop Trump from taking office. None of it worked. They fired all of their bullets, but he still wouldn’t go down.

Of course, the Deep State could still try to assassinate Trump. It’s obvious the possibility has crossed his mind. He’s taken the unusual step of supplementing his Secret Service protection with loyal private security.
The Deep State’s next move is to pin the coming stock market collapse on Trump. When people think “Greater Depression,” they’ll think “Donald Trump.” 

The economy has been on life support since the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed has pumped it up with unprecedented amounts of “stimulus.” This has created enormous distortions and misallocations of capital that need to be flushed. Think of the trillions of dollars in money printing programs—euphemistically called quantitative easing (QE) 1, 2, and 3.

Meanwhile, with zero and even negative interest rates in many countries, rates are the lowest they’ve been in 5,000 years of recorded human history. This is not hyperbole. We’re really in uncharted territory. (Interest rates were never lower than 6% in ancient Greece, and ranged from 4% to over 12% in ancient Rome.) The too big to fail banks are even bigger than they were in 2008. They have more derivatives, and they’re much more dangerous.

If the Deep State wants to trigger a stock market collapse on par with 1929, it just has to pull the plug on the extraordinary life support measures it’s used since the last crisis. It’s already baked in the cake. It’s just a matter of when they decide to trigger the controlled demolition. Donald Trump is the perfect fall guy. And there are signs the Deep State is already starting to get its revenge. The most important variable to watch is the Federal Reserve—the quintessential establishment institution.




Source: Ben Garrison

Even though most politicians, economists, and pundits in the mainstream media won’t admit it, central banks exist to help governments finance themselves, at the expense of the average man. It’s the hidden, but real, reason they exist. The Fed accommodated Obama—effectively financing his regime’s deficits by creating new currency units. I doubt they will do Trump the same favor. And Trump will likely run up enormous deficits. Don’t forget about the $1 trillion in stimulus spending he has planned. If the Fed doesn’t gobble up the debt used to finance Trump’s spending, it will only work to push up interest rates.

Interest Rates

Manipulating interest rates to near 5,000-year lows is a crucial part of the life-support system. Now the Fed is set to pull the plug and leave Trump holding the bag. In December 2015 the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, from 0% to a mere 0.25%. The Fed kept rates there until last month, when it raised them to 0.50%. It also announced it would accelerate rate hikes throughout 2017—three in total.

There’s a good chance the Fed will announce these rate hikes during the eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings it has scheduled in 2017.

2017 FOMC Meetings
February 1 July 26
  March 15 September 20
  May 3 November 1
  June 14 December 13

I think some of these rate hikes will be much bigger than the 0.25% most expect. They could pull a series of 0.50% rate hikes… or go even bigger. Anything greater than the normal 0.25% tempo would shock the market—and seem designed to hurt Trump.

The establishment will get its revenge on Trump. The Federal Reserve is its weapon of choice.

Trump seems aware of the situation. He recently said, “They’re keeping the rates down so that everything else doesn’t go down.” He’s also said that “We have a very false economy” and the stock market is a “big, fat, ugly bubble.” During the campaign, Trump called Fed Chair Janet Yellen “highly political.” He said the Fed should raise interest rates but won’t because of “political reasons.” (Raising rates before the election would have hurt Hillary Clinton.)

The Media

The mainstream media is another variable to watch. Paul Krugman, a New York Times economist—or, more accurately, witch doctor economist—has come out against Trump’s $1 trillion infrastructure stimulus. It’s bizarre because Krugman, a die-hard Keynesian, had previously never seen a “stimulus” program he didn’t like. Once, he even advocated faking a space-alien invasion to stimulate the economy. It shows that Krugman is not only a fool, but a hypocrite. This is a clue.

I bet the rest of the mainstream financial media—CNBC, Bloomberg, The Economist, etc.—will morph from bullish cheerleaders into pessimistic doom-and-gloomers after Trump takes office. Don’t expect them to find any “green shoots” after the market tanks on Trump’s watch. All this is why what happens after Trump’s inauguration could change everything… in sudden, unexpected ways. This is exactly why Doug Casey and I put together a time-sensitive video explaining how it could all go down.

You absolutely must see this urgent video before Trump’s inauguration in two days. Click here to watch it now.





The article One Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble was originally published at caseyresearch.com.


Friday, January 13, 2017

Why Gold Could Soar Another 353%

By Justin Spittler

Gold is on the rise again. It’s climbed for two straight weeks, and it’s now up nearly 5% since December 15. Many precious metals investors couldn’t be happier about this. You see, gold stormed out of the gate last year. It had its strongest first quarter since 1986. By the end of June, it had risen 25%. Things were looking up. Then, the market changed course. Gold plunged 18% in just four months. Last month, it hit its lowest level since last February.

• The sharp pullback spooked precious metals investors….
But regular Dispatch readers knew that gold would rebound. After such an explosive start to 2016, it was only natural for gold to “take a breather.” We urged you to not lose sight of the big picture. As we often remind you, gold’s a safe-haven asset. Investors buy it when they’re worried about the economy, financial system, or politics. And right now, investors have plenty of reasons to be worried, even if some are still enjoying the “Trump Honeymoon” phase.

• Louis James thinks gold will keep rising….
Louis is our chief resource expert. He is the editor of International Speculator and Casey Resource Investor, our advisories dedicated to resource stocks with big upside. According to Louis, gold has struggled recently because investors expect interest rates to rise. They have good reason to think this, too. After all, the Federal Reserve just raised its key interest rate… but for only the second time since 2006. It also said that it plans to lift rates three more times this year. Conventional wisdom tells us that this is bad for gold. Since gold doesn’t pay interest like a bond, most investors don’t want to own it when rates are rising or are likely to rise.

• According to Louis, the market has already “priced in” higher interest rates….
This means gold shouldn’t fall if the Fed sticks to its plan and raises rates three more times this year. Of course, that’s a big “if.” Heading into last year, the Fed said it wanted to raise rates four times. But it only raised rates once last year, and it waited until the eleventh hour to pull the trigger. We wouldn’t be surprised if the Fed sits on its hands again. If that happens, investors will know something is very wrong with the economy. Many folks will start buying gold hand over fist.

• But that’s not the only reason Louis is bullish on gold.…
Last week, he gave his subscribers several reasons why gold should keep rising:
➢ Rumors of new gold curbs in India have not panned out.
➢ Fear of the fall of New Rome [the EU] is driving Europeans into [U.S.] dollars and gold.
➢ The escalation of the “other” Cold War with China increases uncertainty in global markets.
➢ Even Trump’s best ideas (cuts in taxes and regulations) will cause disruptions that will have to work through the economy before things can improve.
• Gold is incredibly cheap, too.…
Louis explains:
Gold needs to rise another US$900 or so to hit a new inflation-adjusted high. Given the trillions and trillions of new dollars, euros, yen, yuan, and so forth printed over the last 45 years, it should do much more than that.
Right now, gold is trading for about $1,180. In other words, it would have to climb about 75% to reach its previous inflation-adjusted high.
But Louis thinks gold could race well past that in the coming years:
Many analysts see the current market as analogous to the great gold bull of the 1970s, only bigger and longer. Adjusted for inflation, gold rose about 353% from its mid-1970s trough to its 1980 peak. If that pattern repeats itself, gold would have to rise from its December 2015 low to just above US$5,200 per ounce by October 2022.
If gold does anything close to what it did during the ’70s, precious metals investors could see explosive gains in the very near future. Just take a look at the chart below.




• Louis is so convinced that gold’s headed higher, he just made a giant bet on it…

He wrote last week:
I’m so sure, I put my money where my mouth is last week. As advised last month, I entered the market during the peak of Tax Loss Season. I’m not allowed to buy the same stocks I recommend (to avoid possible conflicts of interest), so I bought ETFs instead. In fact, I put about twice as much of my own cash into these proxies for gold stocks than I ever put into gold stocks before.
Louis also plans to buy more gold at the first chance he gets:
I think that 2016 was an overture for what’s ahead. I intend to profit from it. And I’m not worried about any fluctuations in the near term. If prices drop, I’ll hope to buy more. If prices rise, it’s off to the races.
• You, too, can make huge profits from rising gold prices.…
The key is to buy gold mining stocks. Gold miners are leveraged to the price of gold. This means gold doesn’t have to rise much for them to take off. During the 2000–2003 gold bull market, the average gold stock gained 602%. The best ones soared 1,000% or more. Of course, not every gold company is a winner. In fact, many gold stocks are total duds. That’s because gold mining is an incredibly difficult business. To protect your capital and make monster gains, you have to own the right gold stocks. Unfortunately, most folks have no clue what to look for in a gold stock.

That’s where we can help.…

You see, Louis is a true industry insider. He’s visited mining projects all around the world. He’s on a first name basis with many of the world’s top mining CEOs. And he understands the geology inside and out. Louis also has a proprietary system for finding the best gold stocks. Casey Research founder Doug Casey actually taught Louis this system… after he spent decades perfecting it.

You can learn more about Louis’ system by clicking here. As you’ll see, it’s delivered giant gains over and over again. Just don’t wait too long. Gold probably won’t stay cheap for much longer… meaning you’ll want to take action soon to have a shot at truly life changing gains. Click here to learn more.

Chart of the Day

Gold stocks are dirt cheap, too.

Today’s chart compares the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI), which tracks large gold stocks, with the price of gold. The lower the ratio, the cheaper gold stocks are relative to gold. According to this ratio, gold stocks are cheaper today than they ever were during the dot com bubble. They’re also cheaper than they ever were during the last housing bubble.

Keep in mind, stocks were trading near record highs during these periods. Most investors were extremely bullish. They owned too many mainstream stocks and not enough gold stocks. Right now, this key ratio is lower than it was during either period. This tells us that today could be one of the best times to buy gold stocks since the turn of the century.

If you would like to add gold stocks to your portfolio, we encourage you to sign up for International Speculator. As we said earlier, this is our publication dedicated to gold stocks with the most upside. 

Click here to begin your risk-free trial.



The article Why Gold Could Soar Another 353% was originally published at caseyresearch.com.




Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Wednesday, January 4, 2017

The Ultimate Way to Profit from Trump’s “America First” Platform

By Nick Giambruno

“It was the single most important financial event of my career.” That’s what my friend Rick Rule of Sprott Global recently told me of his experience in the uranium market. Rick was referring to Paladin Energy, a uranium company that leaped from one penny to $10 per share during uranium’s last bull market. That’s a 1,000-fold increase. In other words, a $10,000 investment could have exploded into $10 million

Even the worst-performing companies in the uranium sector delivered 20 to 1 returns. Uranium can deliver these almost unbelievable returns because of unique supply and demand quirks that create colossal bull and bear markets. Here’s a quick rundown….

The 1950s Uranium Bull Market


Uranium cycled through its first bull market in the 1950s. This bull was mainly driven by the nuclear arms race between the US and the Soviet Union. Back then, the only practical way an investor could get exposure was through uranium exploration companies trading on small regional stock exchanges, like the one in Salt Lake City (which closed in 1986). Those who did made a bundle.

The Late 1970s Uranium Bull Market


The uranium price increased more than tenfold during this bull market… from $3 to $43. Some uranium stocks shot up by a factor of 100. Greater nuclear power use was the main driver. It was a cheap alternative to high-priced oil. Disastrous power plant failures ended this bull market—first Three Mile Island and then Chernobyl, the final nail in the coffin. New production also came online and flooded the market just as demand was decreasing. The resulting bear market lasted for 20 years.

The 2001–2010 Uranium Bull Market


This bull market originated with the preceding 20 year bear market, where the uranium price decreased over 70%. It bottomed at $8 per pound in 2001. For many companies, the cost of producing uranium was higher than the spot price. Miners were producing uranium for around $18 per pound, but they could only sell it for about $9 per pound. So there was little incentive to increase or maintain production. Miners simply stopped producing. Production capacity plummeted. This sowed the seeds for another uranium bull market.

The market didn’t just settle into equilibrium. The supply destruction and increasing demand were so great that, eventually, uranium overshot the price needed to balance the market. After bottoming at $8 per pound in 2001, it skyrocketed to $130 in 2007. That alone is impressive. But uranium stocks had an even greater meteoric rise. This is when Paladin Energy, the company Rick Rule was talking about, soared from one penny to $10. A nuclear catastrophe ushered in a new bear market, just as it had with previous uranium runs. In 2011, a tsunami caused a nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima power plant in Japan. It was the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl. Afterward, Japan took all 52 of its nuclear power plants offline and switched to importing liquefied natural gas (LNG).

A major source of demand in the global uranium market was gone. And a global supply glut followed.
The uranium price crashed from around $85 to under $30. Then it continued sliding to around $18 per pound, where it sits today. Now, once again, the spot price of uranium is less than the cost of production. This is great news for us. The current uranium supply/demand imbalance has a lot in common with the last market cycle. It’s setting the stage for the next uranium boom. Now is the time to get positioned for the same kind of explosive returns we’ve seen in previous uranium bull markets.

The Next Uranium Bull Run


I can’t think of a commodity with more upside and less downside than uranium right now. While many commodities have bounced off their lows, uranium hasn’t. It’s still at or near the moment of maximum pessimism. The situation is screaming, “Bargain!” Psychology plays a big part here. People don’t like uranium. It’s yucky. It’s politically incorrect. Some hear “uranium” and think “cancer.” Many get emotional because of its association with Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and of course Fukushima.

Besides that, investors are terrified that uranium prices have fallen over 85% from previous highs. It’s hard to think of a market where the sentiment is worse. This is why I’m excited. Crises and extreme sentiment don't scare me. They attract my interest.

The whole point of investing in crisis markets is to take advantage of the aberrations of mass psychology and pick up elite companies and assets for pennies on the dollar. This describes the current opportunity in the uranium market perfectly. Simply put, nuclear power delivers immense value to its users, there’s no substitute for uranium, and production is falling while demand rises.

This situation has only two possible outcomes….


1. Uranium prices don’t go up. Miners have no incentive to produce. Nuclear power plants run out of uranium, and the lights go out for billions of people.
2. Uranium prices go up and incentivize enough production to meet the demand.

There are no other options. Which one do you think is more likely? Then there’s the Trump factor. Trump is strongly pro-energy, and pro-nuclear in particular. He has said, “I’m in favor of nuclear energy, very strongly in favor of nuclear energy.” Nuclear energy fits right in with Trump’s “America First” platform. It’s critical for securing the country’s energy independence.

For all these reasons, uranium is my #1 investment for 2017.

Last month I recommended a “best of breed” uranium company in Crisis Investing. Subscribers are already sitting on a gain of around 17% as of this writing. Now, I can’t tell you the name of this company. That would be unfair to subscribers. But I can tell you why I’m so bullish on it.

It has the upside of a junior exploration company, think 10 bagger or better. But it’s very low risk. This is the kind of trade we look for in crisis markets, with the risk/reward skewed in our favor. In the last uranium bull market, this company’s share price rocketed 3,600%. That’s a 10 bagger almost four times over. I expect it to do at least as well in the coming one as it did in the previous one.

You’ll find all the details in Crisis InvestingClick here to learn more.




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Saturday, October 15, 2016

Carley Garner's "Higher Probability Commodity Trading"

Carley Garner's new book "Higher Probability Commodity Trading" takes readers on an unprecedented journey through the treacherous commodity markets; shedding light on topics rarely discussed in trading literature from a unique perspective, with the intention of increasing the odds of success for market participants.

In its quest to guide traders through the process of commodity market analysis, strategy development, and risk management, Higher Probability Commodity Trading discusses several alternative market concepts and unconventional views such as option selling tactics, hedging futures positions with options, and combining the practice of fundamental, technical, seasonal, and sentiment analysis to gauge market price changes.

Carley, is a frequent contributor of commodity market analysis to CNBC's Mad Money TV show hosted by Jim Cramer. She has also been a futures and options broker, where for over a decade she has had a front row seat to the victories and defeats the commodity markets deal to traders.

Garner has a knack for portraying complex commodity trading concepts, in an easy-to-read and entertaining format. Readers of Higher Probability Commodity Trading are sure to walk away with a better understanding of the futures and options market, but more importantly with the benefit of years of market lessons learned without the expensive lessons.

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