Adam Hewison: Can You Handle The Truth?

Like a lot of folks, I love good movies. One of my favorite movies is, “A Few Good Men” starring Jack Nicholson and Tom Cruise. I was thinking this morning about Jack Nicholson’s famous line from the movie, which goes like this: “You can’t handle the truth!”

Now here is the reality… A politician can spin the truth about his or her record, WHY? To get reelected, of course. A CEO of a company can spin sales projections to pump his stock up, WHY? So he can receive a bigger year end bonus. The pundits who appear on CNBC and Fox business news can spin markets any way they want, WHY? To benefit their own vested interests in a market.

WANT TO KNOW THE TRUTH?

This is what I really like about the marketplace: It tells you the truth! It literally is a no spin zone. When you examine the recent downturn in the equity markets, the market was telling you that it did not believe in the policies of this current administration. Similarly, when Ken Lay and Jeff Schilling at Enron were telling everybody how good business was, the market exposed the truth on that bunch of crooks by sending their stock into bankruptcy.

So can you, as a trader, handle the truth? Does your political bias or a particular view of a market get in the way of your trading?

When you use a non-biased, objective approach like MarketClub’s Trade Triangles as your trading foundation, you will find you can sweep aside all of the spin and BS. All you have to do as a trader is listen to the real truth, and that is which direction is the trend in the market.

Now, let’s take a look at where the SP 500 is headed.....

The battle continues between the Bulls and the Bears as we have entered into a very tight trading range between 1140 on the downside and 1200 on the upside. Our views are based on our Trade Triangle technology and they continue to point to lower levels. The two important lows that were established on August 26th and again on September 6th at the 1140 area are important support for this market. Long term traders should continue to be short or be out of the market completely, and in a cash position. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines waiting for either a buy or sell signal based on our Trade Triangle technology.

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 75

The S&P 500 index closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the short covering rally off August's uptrend line crossing near 1148.10. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are still neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the aforementioned uptrend line would confirm an end to the corrective rally off August's low while opening the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 1093.50 later this fall. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 1197.70 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1197.70. Second resistance is the late August high crossing at 1223.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1123.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1113.20.

Bonds, U.S. Dollar, SP500 & Gold Have Changed Direction – Are You Ready?

There have been some major trend changes recently and it looks as though more investments are about to follow. The real question though is… Are You Ready To Take Advantage Of It?

It has been an exciting ride to say the least with the equities and metals bull market and the plummeting dollar. But it looks as though their time is up, or at least for a few weeks. Traders and investors will slowly pull money off the table to lock in gains or cut losses and re-evaluate the overall market condition before stepping back up to the plate and taking another swing.

Below are a few charts showing some possible money making trade ideas in the weeks ahead.

TBT 20+ Treasury Note Inverse Fund

This fund moves inverse to the price of the 20 year T.N’s also known as bonds. Looking at the chart you can see the recent reversal which took place. We had a great entry point shortly after this reversal took place using my low risk setup strategy.

Falling bond prices are considered to have a negative impact on equities because it implies that interest rates may start rising which means more investors will pull money out of stocks and put that money into a safe interest earning investment. You will typically see bonds change direction before equities. That being said the chart below is an inverse fund, so when this bond fund goes up, it means actually indicates bond yields are falling. I will admit these inverse funds really throw my brain for a loop at time… I prefer the good old days, buying long and selling short....so simple and clean....

UUP – US Dollar Index Fund

This fund moves with the dollar and allows equities traders to take advantage of currency trading. This chart below shows a possible trend reversal for the dollar. If the dollar continues to rally then it’s also a good sign that interest rates could be rising in the near future and it also means more downward pressure on equities.

SDS – Inverse SP500 Index Fund

These bear funds make it possible for traders and investors to profit from a falling market using a regular buy and sell strategy. They can also be traded in retirement accounts making them a golden investment for those willing to play a falling market.

This chart moves the same as the SP500 index only flipped. As the SP500 falls this fund rallies.

The strategy we just used to play the recent rally is the same strategy we will use during a bear market, but instead of trading the SPY, we are trading this fund.

It is important to note that while bull market rallies tend to drag out; bear markets typically have faster movements. Fear is much more powerful than greed which is why the stock market drops quicker than it goes up.

GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund

Gold also looks to be topping and could actually be starting to form a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern.

Mid-Week Trend Trading Conclusion:

In short, understanding inter-market analysis is crucial for traders/investors to know. Not understanding how they affect one other can be very costly in the long run. Remember that volatility and volume rise together at the end of a trend. You can view the recent volatility index (VIX) to see its price action also. Volatility changes also make for great low risk options trades if options are your thing. Focus on trading with the trend, bounces in a down trend are typically muted or trade sideways making is very difficult to make money buying in a falling stock market.

Get Chris Vermeulen's Daily Pre-Market Trading Analysis Videos, Intraday Updates & Trade Alerts at The Gold And Oil Guy.com




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The Market Continues The FOMC March Upward

With the election over and congress divided, it may be difficult for the president to get much done. None of this will take affect until the near year but traders are asking the big question… Will the government work together as a team or will it be a stalemate?

Today’s whipsaw action after the FOMC statement shook things up as it always does. We saw gold, silver, the dollar, SP500 and bond prices go haywire. It took about 30 minutes for the market to digest this news in that time a lot of people lost money because of the wide price swings. Trading around news, I find, is a net losing trade over the long run and I advise never to do it. Rather wait for a trend to form and trade any low risk setups that come your way.

I truly believe that the market has already priced in most news and events which unfold, and that news tends to agree with the overall trend of the market. Of course there will be short term blips on the charts from the news, but they tend to be minor setbacks in the underlying market trend. That being said, the trend is our friend, and while so many are trying to pick a top in the equities market it makes me cringe because they are fighting the trend and the Fed.

Successful trading is done by trading the trend, and during choppy times you may get roughed up a bit and need to alter your strategy for shorter term momentum play, but overall you gotta’ stick with the trend until proven wrong. Once the trend reverses and confirms, only then can you start shorting the market.

Last week we took another long position near the lows on the SP500 as it dipped down to key support with the market internals confirming our entry. This low risk setup gets us into a market at an extreme, meaning we are in the money usually within hours of entry and the market tends to keep well above our entry point until its ready for another surge higher or a break down.

I agree with those of you who think the market is WAY over bought and due for a strong pullback, and I find myself squirming in my chair when I take another long position way up here in the lofty SP500 prices. But over the years I have found that if it’s hard to pull the trigger, then it should be a good trade if all the trading rules have been met, and if it’s a clear chart setup (meaning an easy looking trade) you better watch out!

This chart shows two charts, one of the 10 minute intraday chart covering 6 trading sessions.




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Nouriel Roubini.....Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance

Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini electrified his profession and the larger financial community by predicting the current crisis well in advance of anyone else. Unlike most in his profession who treat economic disasters as freakish once in­ a lifetime events without clear cause, Roubini, after decades of careful research around the world, realized that they were both probable and predictable. Armed with an unconventional blend of historical analysis and global economics, Roubini has forced politicians, policy makers, investors, and market watchers to face a long neglected truth: financial systems are inherently fragile and prone to collapse.

Drawing on the parallels from many countries and centuries, Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm, a professor of economic history and a New York Times Magazine writer, show that financial cataclysms are as old and as ubiquitous as capitalism itself. The last two decades alone have witnessed comparable crises in countries as diverse as Mexico, Thailand, Brazil, Pakistan, and Argentina. All of these crises-not to mention the more sweeping cataclysms such as the Great Depression-have much in common with the current downturn. Bringing lessons of earlier episodes to bear on our present predicament, Roubini and Mihm show how we can recognize and grapple with the inherent instability of the global financial system, understand its pressure points, learn from previous episodes of "irrational exuberance," pinpoint the course of global contagion, and plan for our immediate future. Perhaps most important, the authors considering theories, statistics, and mathematical models with the skepticism that recent history warrants explain how the world's economy can get out of the mess we're in, and stay out.

In Roubini's shadow, economists and investors are increasingly realizing that they can no longer afford to consider crises the black swans of financial history. A vital and timeless book, Crisis Economics proves calamities to be not only predictable but also preventable and, with the right medicine, curable.

Visit our Amazon store and order "Crisis Economics" today!



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Stock Market Leaders Are Now Lagging?

Wednesday’s session closed mixed on the day. The DOW posted a third of a percent gain while the tech sector closed down almost nine tenths of a percent. While technology stocks have been leading the market higher in the recent months, today they took the back seat while the DOW took control. Take a look at the intraday chart of the SPY price action compared to the tech sector. It’s clear the tech stocks where not in favor today. Some tech stocks that really took a beating today were FFIV, NTAP, APKT and AKAM. On another note, we are entering earning season and I am wondering if we are going to see a “Sell the New” type of thing again.

The broad market is experiencing a 36 day down cycle which has played a very dominant roll in the market this year. It topped out 9 days ago so we should expect sideways chop or some selling over the next 9 trading session. Because the market is trending up, pullbacks should be shallow.

The market continues to grind its way higher on relatively light volume. I have been waiting several weeks now for the volume to come back into the market but its just not happening. The majority of shares being traded are from banks, funds and day traders as the average investor’s not taking part because of the uncertainty looming. The lack of volume (commitment) to the market from the masses is making the market internals swing from one extreme to another on virtually weekly basis making it more difficult to take advantage of short term extreme sentiment levels.

The current market environment has traders shifting gears to more of a momentum trading strategy to take advantage of trends and this is what I am going to start implementing again as the market expands.

Market Conclusion:
In short, the equities market is in an up trend but looks to be overbought. Also with the downward cycle I don’t think the market will expand here and take off. Rather it will most likely chop around and burn off time until some earnings are released and the cycle bottoms. Unless we get a really sharp reversal down which we have yet to see on the SP500 or DOW, nibbling on small long positions or staying in cash is what I am doing right now.

As for gold, silver, the dollar and oil… Well the dollar continues to lose value on a daily basis which in turn is boosting metals along with crude oil. All four of those investments are over extended but they are trending and not really looking like they want to reverse just yet.

Chris Vermeulen
The Gold And Oil Guy.com

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New Video: This Reliable S&P Formation Could Make You Money

In this new video we explain in detail a particular chart formation that has proven to be very reliable in the past. If we are right, we could see a further move and run in the S&P500 to the upside. The video is free to watch and there are no registration requirements.

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Is it Really Time to Get on The Gold Band Wagon? Try this ETF Instead

Retail investors are flooding into gold. And it's no surprise with Gold (GLD) reaching all time highs again this week more investors are putting cash into anything precious metal related but I am here to caution you on doing so. There are far better opportunities than gold right now and chasing this trend is not the formula for generating short term growth. We have traded GLD call options 8 times this year (7 profitable) in the ETF TRADR portfolio but now it’s time to step away. Of course, what type of ‘tradr’ would I be if I failed to offer a better alternative.

First off, it would be very difficult to find a long term chart more strong and persistent than the Gold chart, it’s nothing short of amazing (and at the same time scary for the future of the dollar). That said, even as Gold has made new highs in recent days there is a better place to focus your trading capital. The semiconductor industry has lifted off in recent days and I expect it to continue. Here’s the performance chart between the headline making Gold (GLD) rally and the Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

So what’s making the semis perform so well? It’s certainly not the lackluster outlook from PC manufacturers who continue to see challenges ahead. It was just three weeks ago when Intel (INTC) slashed their outlook sending the stock down nearly 4%. Others like Cisco have also expressed concern with speak of “unusual uncertainty” in the global economy that could impact sales.

If these headlines weren’t enough many analysts also believe Apple’s iPad is hurting sales of the Semiconductor Industry because the chip is Apple branded and made by Samsung who is not a major Semiconductor. The major players are not benefiting from this particular increase in chip demand. Bottom line, here’s what is making semiconductors (SMH) move.

If you want real time ETF and ETF Option recommendations start here by signing up for our Freemium TRADR .

In a classic contrarian move Semiconductors shifted in to high gear directly after the industry leader (INTC) lowered their outlook. SMH has one of the strongest ETFs trends in September and I believe it will continue. Let’s take a look at the SMH charts to see the how the ETF is trading. We’ll take a look at the following:
Current Trend Analysis (how strong is this trend and how much further can it go) Resistance and Support Levels. How to Enter with a Lower Risk Profile.

Just click here to watch the video.


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New Video: Let The Carnival Begin!

Here is a market that we like a lot more than the US market. We really like the way its acting and it looks set to take out the highs that were seen in December of 2009. If that is the case, then we could see this market make all time highs pretty quickly. You definitely want to have
this one on your radar screen.

In this new short video, I show you what I'm looking at and how we showcased this market last week when we did our last webinar. This webinar is set to be rebroadcast on Friday, September 24th at 5pm EST/9pm GMT.

This market is still looking good and looking strong. Pay very close to it this Friday because if it closes well, it should bode well for the following week.

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration.

Click Here to watch "Let The Carnival Begin!"

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SP500 Pierces, Bonds Rally, Dollars Fall Out the Window

From Chris Vermeulen at The Gold And Oil Guy.Com.......

It’s been a wild ride the past few days OptionsX, Obama and FOMC comments. Seems like everyone is waiting to see what the market is going to do going forward at this pivotal point…

Since the market topped in April and has since been trading sideways in this rather large range, everyone has small positions at work but waiting for a decisive move before fully committing to one side. There could be a few opportunities in the coming days using bonds, the dollar and the SP500 if all goes well which I explain below.

Lets take a look at the charts.....

SP500 – SPY ETF, Daily Chart
There has been a lot of talk about a sharp rally if the SP500 could break the 1130 level or the neckline everyone is talking about. Well this week Obama was on TV and the market rallied into that, then again after. I don’t really thing investors or traders were buying things up as he said the same boring stuff he always says without anything new. I feel there could have been another force at work, which we can discus another time .

Anyways, the market pierced those resistance levels and I’m sure a ton of traders have switch their view on the market from bearish to bullish. While I prefer to trade with the trend I can’t help but feel this market is still range bound, which is why I am still bearish at these shakeout levels. The SP500 did break resistance BUT the following candle did not close above the breakout candles high to confirm the move.

That said, the market is now trading back down at support and the next couple of days I’m sure will shed some like on the direction.

20 Year Bonds – TLT Fund, Daily Chart
We have seen the bond price pullback in a bull flag formation. It touched support before bouncing to break short term resistance as it looks to have started another rally. The chart below overlays both the candlesticks of the bond price and the SP500 which is the white line. You will notice they have an inverse relationship. If bond prices continue to rally then lower SP500 could start to rollover.

US Dollar – UUP Fund, Daily Chart
The dollar has fallen sharply the past 10 trading session and it looks to be oversold for a couple reasons. The past couple days the price has dropped straight down and gapped lower. This recent drop has reached a gap window which will act as support and could provide a tradable bounce in the coming days depending how things unfold.

In short, the SP500 is flirting with resistance and has yet to confirm the breakout. Bond prices look to be headed higher which will makes me think equities could start to sell off any day now… It’s also important to note that the big banks GS and JPM shares have been under pressure and they tend to lead the broad market. Another point to add is the fact the oil has not rallied even though the dollar dropped like a rock? What happens if the dollar bounces? Could oil finally start its next leg down?

Gold and silver continue their steady grind up. The price action reminds me of the 2009 Nov –Dec move. Once that train de-rails its going to have a sharp correction…

You can get my ETF and Commodity Trading Signals if you become a subscriber of my newsletter. These free reports will continue to come on a weekly basis; however, instead of covering 3-5 investments at a time, I’ll be covering only 1. Newsletter subscribers will be getting more analysis that’s actionable. I’ve also decided to add video analysis as it allows me toe get more into across to you quicker and is more educational, and I’ll be covering more of the market to include currencies, bonds and sectors. Before everyone’s emails were answered personally, but now my focus is on building a strong group of traders and they will receive direct personal responses regarding trade ideas and analysis going forward.

Let the volatility and volume return!

Chris Vermeulen....The Gold And Oil Guy.Com

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New Video: Has the Price of Gold Reached its Zenith?

Today we are going to be looking at gold and analyze the recent run up that has created a great deal of excitement and fear for many investors and traders.

We're also going to be looking at some upside measurements that we have for this market. Conversely, we are also looking at an area that should provide support should the gold market pull back from its current levels.

In this new video we are going to be focusing on our "Trade Triangle" technology and what it means for traders. We will explore short term, intermediate term, and long term trading in this precious metal. This will all be done using our "Trade Triangles."

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration. We hope that you enjoy the video and that you share your comments.

Watch "Has the Price of Gold Reached its Zenith?"

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Crude Oil, Gold, Silver & SP500 Trading Charts

From guest blogger Chris Vermeulen at The Gold and Oil Guy.Com.....

We are at the tail of another light volume choppy options expiry week and a big move is brewing… So I thought I would do a mid-week update on what I think is about to unfold in the coming days.

First off I will touch on gold. Everyone is in love with this shiny metal. But as I mentioned last week I think we are nearing a sharp correction. Previously I pointed out that we needed gold to make a new high to the $1275- 1285 area before everyone piles in and gets married to it, only then will the market reverse… Remember the market is out to take money from the masses and the gold trade is getting a little crowded in my opinion.

There are fundamentals which can be taken into account… but when has any investment moved perfectly inline with the underlying fundaments? I’ve seen investments lead fundaments by years, and other times lag the fundamentals by years, not to mention manipulation… but that’s a whole different subject. That being said I don’t hold gold long term for the simple reason I don’t believe much in the buy and hold strategy, nor do I like to watch investments go much more than a few percent against me… I would rather sit in cash jumping in and out when things look ripe for the picking. Ok let’s jump into the analysis....

Gold Futures Price – Daily Chart
As you can see gold is forming another rising bearish wedge. The last one lead to a $100 drop in gold earlier this year. The part that I find exciting is that this recent run up has been on relatively light volume and without any decent pullbacks along the way. What does that mean? It means fewer people are willing to pay top dollar for it and the big money is riding this train up until they feel its getting exhausted then they will start unloading large amounts at a premium. We also just saw another new high on Thursday which happened on light volume tells me this rally just may have the herd all rounded up before the slaughter.

Silver Futures Price – 15 Minute Intraday Chart
While I don’t trade silver as much as gold due to the added volatility/whipsaw action, this intraday chart is starting to show signs of weakness with a rising bearish wedge today. This is just an intraday chart but these short term patterns tend to lead the longer term charts pointing out exhaustion is starting to creep into the market. Both gold and silver could still have a blow off top and shot up, which is why I have been saying to stay long metals (if you have a position) and to keep raising stop as it could continue higher for some time if a new wave of buyers step in.

Crude Oil – 4 Hour Chart
Oil has been choppy recently making it difficult to get a good read off the chart. Currently it is testing support and looks to be forming a possible right shoulder. It could have some good potential to the down side if we get a neckline break. I’m keeping my eye on it for another low risk entry point.

SP500 ETF – Daily Chart
This chart clearly shows some extreme bullish sentiment levels in the market. The bottom indicator is the total put/call ratio and when it is below 0.80 in an environment like this, it means there are too many people bullish on the market. So with todays spike low its easy to tell that the majority of traders/investors are bullish as they buy all the call options they can.

That being said, we generally get a serious shake out before the market reverses. What I mean by that, we should see the market gap substantially higher or spike up intraday as key resistance is broken. This forces all the shorts to cover their positions just before the market rolls over and sells back down. That’s what I am looking for to take action.

Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, gold and silver are looking and feeling toppy here. While I am bullish on them long term, we could see sharp pullback which could take months to regain these prices. I am not short metals yet but very close to taking a short counter trend trade.

Oil continues to looks bearish but is taking a long time to play out. This is a 4 hour chart and if we do get this neckline breakdown, it would still take 1-2 months to pay off. That being said, it looks like it will go lower.

SP500, I think the chart gets the point across. The important part to know is that it should go another 0.5% – 2% higher before it goes lower as that would make for a perfect pop & drop reversal pattern which I will alert members to when the time comes to short.

You can get my ETF and Commodity Trading Signals if you become a subscriber of my newsletter. These free reports will continue to come on a weekly basis; however, instead of covering 2-4 investments at a time, I’ll be covering only 1. Newsletter subscribers will be getting more analysis that’s actionable. I’ve also decided to add video analysis per customer’s request, and I’ll be covering more of the market to include currencies, bonds and sectors. Before everyone’s emails were answered personally, but now my focus is on building a strong group of traders and they will receive direct personal responses regarding trade ideas and analysis going forward.

Let the volatility and volume return!

Chris Vermeulen
The Gold And Oil Guy.Com


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Gold forms Overbought Rising Wedge at Resistance

From guest blogger Chris Vermeulen from The Gold and Oil Guy....

Precious metals soar as investors flock to gold and silver. But are they looking deep enough to truly understand the current trends at hand?

When reviewing the metals sector I like to look at it from different angles to get a solid understanding of the patterns and trend forming. I follow multiple time frames along with monitoring the gold mining stocks. Gold stocks tend to lead the price of gold bullion and when its out performing the price of gold substantially by 10% or more you should be expecting a pause or pullback in both gold stocks and gold bullion prices temporarily.

Below are a few charts showing the long and short term trends for gold.

Gold Bullion Price – Weekly Trend Chart
Gold continues to be in a strong up trend. The occasional test of support at the major moving averages can provide great long term points for adding to a position. The 50 period average is one which is tested frequently.

Looking at the weekly chart does give me a red flag for the intermediate price of gold. While the trend is clearly up I can’t help but notice the rising wedge which is a bearish pattern. During an uptrend we want to see bull flags and pennants, not a grind higher forming a narrowing range. This grind higher could unfold much similar to the price action of 2005 and 2007 instead of a correction but I am leaning more towards a sharp correction because more people are bullish on gold now then they were during the June top.

For those looking at gold as a long term investment/currency can be patient and wait for a pullback to a major moving average before adding to your position then you would lower your overall risk for this position. You will understand after reviewing the following charts.

GLD – Gold Bullion ETF – Daily Chart
(This fund moves identical to spot gold price so even though I am showing you GLD fund, the spot gold chart is doing the exact same thing.) As you can see below the price of gold is trading at resistance and becoming choppy. Buying gold at resistance does not make much sense to me. There is a very good chance gold will move lower in the coming weeks providing a better price for long term investors to add to their positions. For example, if you waited for the weekly chart to pullback to the 50 period moving average that would be like buying this GLD fund at $113, which is an 8% discount.

Gold continues to hold up within its channel but this week we could see fireworks if the price breaks below the blue support channels.

Gold:Gold Stocks Comparison – Daily Chart
This chart shows the performance of gold vs gold stocks from the Feb 2010 lows. The blue line is the performance of gold stocks while the red line shows gold’s performance. It’s obvious that when everyone is bullish on gold they buy the highly leverages gold investments in order to take full advantage of the upcoming move. This is much like reading the put/call ratio for trading the SP500 and it measures the bullishness of the precious metals sector.

When gold equities are strongly out performing gold bullion you should be thinking about raising your stops, taking partial profits and or hedging your long term position until the sector stabilizes is not trading at a premium.

Precious Metals Sector Trading Conclusion:
In short, Gold is in a strong up trend and will remain inrecious Metals Sector Trading Conclusion: one for a long time. Commodities have higher percentage of going parabolic. That means there’s a small chance that gold continues to move up quicker and quicker surging hundreds of dollars in a very short period of time. That being said, it’s not very likely, and from a technical point of view those buying gold now are paying a premium in my opinion.

Being a patient trader is not easy, but waiting for low risk entry points is very rewarding on many different levels when done correctly.

Get Chris Vermeulen'a detailed analysis and trades for Oil, US dollar, Treasury notes, the broad market, and Sectors. Be sure to join his ETF Trading Service at The Gold and Oil Guy.Com



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New Video: Why Weekly Charts Work

Many traders get so involved with the market on a daily or even an intraday basis, that they somehow lose out on the bigger picture. Weekly charts are enormously helpful in giving clues to the future direction of the market.

In today's video we examine one of the biggest markets in the world, the S&P 500, using a weekly chart. The video runs about two minutes in length and we think you will find it both educational and informative.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Enjoy the video and be sure to share your thoughts.

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Peter Schiff: Bonds Are The Mother Of All Bubbles

Peter Schiff, famous for issuing warnings ahead of the recent U.S. property crash, doesn't have kind words for the recent U.S. treasury rally.





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New Video: How A Japanese Chart Formation Could DOOM the DOW

It's déjà vu all over again". Is one of Yogi Berra's famous original quotes and the same can be said for the DOW right now.

The weekly chart on the DOW is flashing the same Japanese candlestick signal that it had earlier in April of this year. Back then the DOW dropped from 11,200 to 9,700 in the space of just 10 weeks!

If nothing else watch this video as this could be one of the most important weeks for the DOW and its future. The video runs three minutes. You will find it both interesting and educational from both a Fibonacci and Japanese candlestick point of view.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements needed. Please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what you think of the video and the future of the Dow and the markets in general.

Watch How A Japanese Chart Formation Could DOOM the DOW

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New Video: How to Spot Winning Trades

In today's video we share with you how to use one of the many features in MarketClub, our Smart Scan technology. Using Smart Scan, you can easily spot winning stocks, futures, precious metals, and currencies that meet one of 24 preset scanning criteria, including uptrends or downtrends.

As traders we have 3 potential positions we can take at all times: (1) We can be long the market (2) We can be short the market (3) We can be on the sidelines and out of the market (options allow you to do other things but I want to keep it simple today).

Using our Smart Scan technology and filtering out the noise can help find some of the real nuggets that are out there.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. If you'd like to comment on this video please do so.

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How to Find Low Risk SP500, Gold & Crude Oil ETF Setups

As we all know there is an unlimited amount of ways to trade the financial markets. Each person sees the market in a different way, has different skill sets, trading experience and risk tolerance levels. While some individuals create and use complete systems to make money there are some very basic trading strategies which still work well and require nothing more than basic charting, patience and a little money management.

Let me explain:

SPY – SP500 Index Trading Fund
You can clearly see the longer term trend which is down (blue trendine). But from simply drawing a couple trendlines and looking at the MACD (momentum) indicator you can see there is a possible trend reversal taking place. So far the SPY has broken out of its down trendline with a 4 day pop, and it’s now pulled back down to test support. A close below the trend line or the 50MA would be the exit points if the market did start to go south.

The SP500 is still stuck under major resistance, its 200 day moving average. But is trading above key support levels (20MA, 50MA and Trendline). I can feel the tension in the market between traders and we are about to see a big move once a breakout to the upside or down side is established. At this time its best to be in cash or have a small position with a protective stop in place. Once a trend starts there should be some low risk entry points along the way. If we see a strong reversal to the upside On Monday or Tuesday I would expect big buyers would step in to catch this new trend up.

Trading Fund
Looking at the price of gold we can see the trend is still down along with the momentum. A breakout would be the first step towards a possible entry point but I prefer to wait for a pullback after the breakout has taken place. Once we get a test of support I look to enter a position once there is a strong reversal candle to the upside. From there I draw a new support trend line from the previous low and connect it to the new pivot low (bottom of reversal candle). That becomes my new protective stop.

Gold still has some work to do before I would even be interested in taking a long position for a swing trade. But on a short term time frame (intraday charts) gold looks to be forming a low risk setup which I hope unfolds for my subscribers this week.

USO – Crude Oil Trading Fund
Oil has been trading in a large bearish pennant for the past 2 months and it is nearing the apex of this pattern. The longer term picture of oil is bearish but the most recent dotted trend line and the 20/50MA crossover is signaling some strength. Also the momentum for oil is positive and that helps support the price also. Again if this was to breakout to the upside I would wait for a low volume pullback to test the breakout level, then enter on a reversal back up.

Oil is one of the more challenging commodities to trade because it is affected by the US Dollar, Political Events, and Weather. In short, even if you had the analysis and timing correct there are other factors which move the price of oil on a regular basis that could quickly turn the trade against you. That being said, keep trades small when trading oil.

Trading Setups:
In short, trading can be complex, simple or somewhere in between. You can spend 14 hours or 20 minutes a day analyzing it depending on what investments you trade, whether you’re trading full time or just checking up on longer term investments.

This analysis and basic strategy shown above can be profitable if followed correctly and works for stocks, commodities and indexes. It’s just to show how simple one can swing trade the market using very basic analysis. Personally I use a much more complex strategy incorporating 15+ other data points which allows for precise entry and exit points.

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New Video: What Makes a Frustrating Market?

The S&P 500 is turning out to be a conundrum for many professionals and home traders alike. The conflicting information on good earnings, high unemployment, and other factors continue to batter the market. One moment the SP500 is heading for the stars and the next, it's heading to the cellar.

So what's a trader to do?

In our new video, we share with you some steps you can use to help improve your trading in the S&P 500 and other markets. The new video is approximately 3 minutes long and it will show you several key areas and levels that we am looking at.

As always our videos are free to watch and you do not have to register. We would like to see your feedback on how you see the market, as so many traders are becoming frustrated with the lack of real follow through in either direction.


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New Video: Amazon Has Hurt Itself ... Technically

In today's video we look at the technical aspects of Amazon and see what's causing it not to go up at this point in time.

Analyzing the market in depth, we can see that Amazon has hurt itself technically. According to the chart, we can anticipate that it is going to take some time to repair or even overcome the current level resistance.

This new short video outlines the areas we feel must be challenged to change the present trend. We also look at some downside target zones that may be possible for this stock.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. We would love to hear your thoughts on Amazon.

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New Video: A Battle Royal in the S&P 500

The battle between the bulls and the bears continues in the S&P 500 with neither side able to gain the upper hand. This choppy trading action will eventually lead to a large move one way or the other. The bulls are betting that we are headed higher and the bears are betting that the economy is going to tank.

In our latest video, we share with you some of the key technical points that are still in play and where the market needs to go in order to break out of the current logjam that it's in.

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration. Please let us know your thoughts by leaving a comment.


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