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Ray's Friday Evening Extreme Market Commentary

STOCK INDEXES

The December NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1299.02. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. However, stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 1136.75 is the next downside target. Closes below this support level would renew this fall's decline while opening the door for a possible test of the 87% retracement level of the 2002-2007 rally crossing at 979.84. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 1389.00 are needed to renew the rally off October's low. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1298.92. Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1389.00. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1235.00. Second support is October's low crossing at 1136.75.

The December S&P 500 index closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 938.74. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 825.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1066.50 are needed to confirming that an important low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 938.77. Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1008.00. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 900.50. Second support is October's low crossing at 825.00.

The Dow posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 8967 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. If the Dow extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 8143 then October's low crossing at 7882 are the next downside targets. Closes below October's low would renew this fall's decline while opening the door for a possible test of the 87% retracement level of the 2002-2007 rally crossing at 8072 then the 2002 low crossing at 7197 later this year. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 8967. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 9653. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 8684.96. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8143.

INTEREST RATES

December T-bonds closed down 14/32's at 116-12. December T-bonds closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 115-16. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 119-12 is the next upside target. Closes above 119-12 would renew the rally off October's low. First resistance is today's high crossing at 117-09. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119-12. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 115-16. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 115-09.

ENERGY MARKETS

December crude oil closed slightly higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, the 75% retracement level crossing at 51.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.60 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 64.89. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.60. First support is today's low crossing at 59.97. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 51.81.

December heating oil closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 201.06. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, monthly support marked by the 62% retracement level of the 1999-2008 rally crossing at 176.90 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 221.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 201.06. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 208.78. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 193.55. Second support is October's low crossing at 190.89.



December unleaded gas closed slightly higher due to light short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Despite today's rebound, stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 103.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 142.89. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 154.92. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 132.40. Second support is monthly support crossing at 103.50.

December Henry natural closed below the 10 day moving average crossing at 6.779 on Friday confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 6.330 is the next downside target. Closes below October's low crossing at 6.240 would renew this year's decline while opening the door for a possible test of the 2007 September low crossing at 5.249. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 7.332 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's low crossing at 7.36. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.332. First support is today's low crossing at 6.720. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6.330.

CURRENCIES

The December Dollar closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Despite today's rally, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short-
term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 90.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 88.49. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 90.26. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.05. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 83.75.

The December Euro closed slightly higher on Friday due to light short covering but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 127.597. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 132.770 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this fall's decline, weekly support crossing at 121.770 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 129.992. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 132.770. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 125.070. Second support is October's low crossing at 123.260.

The December British Pound closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1.5912. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this fall's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2007 rally crossing at 1.4574 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.6634 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1.5912. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1.6392. First support is today's low crossing at 1.5511. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.5224.

The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20
day moving average crossing at .8683 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this fall's decline, weekly support crossing at .8071 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8630. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at .8683. First support is Thursday's low crossing at .8303. Second support is weekly support crossing at .8071.

The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.89. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. If December renews the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 88.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.74 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 87.24. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.42. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.89. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.74.

The December Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday as it consolidates below the 10 day moving average crossing at .10228. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at .10228 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at .9800 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at .10347. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at .10396. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10153. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at .9953.



PRECIOUS METALS

December gold closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 761.90 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December renews this fall's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2004-2008 rally crossing at 651.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 761.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 778.30. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 717.10. Second support is October's low crossing at 681.00.

December silver closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 9.834. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.355 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 9.767 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 10.800. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.355. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.834. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.767.

December copper closed lower on Friday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 152.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 217.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 185.01. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.82. First support is today's low crossing at 168.80. Second support is October's low crossing at 162.65.

FOOD & FIBER

December coffee closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.335 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 12.1100 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

December cocoa closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.98. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this fall's decline, the 2007 low crossing at 18.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 21.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March sugar closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 11.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 14.72 is the next upside target.

December cotton closed lower on Friday and posted a new contract low as it extends this fall's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 41.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 47.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

GRAINS

December corn closed lower on Friday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 3.68 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes below this support level would renew this fall's decline while opening the door for a possible test of the 87% retracement level of the 2006-2008 rally crossing at 3.27. First resistance is Thursday's gap crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.97. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.74 1/2. Second support is October's low crossing at 3.68 3/4.

December wheat closed down 1 1/2-cent at 5.21. December wheat closed lower on Friday and below the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008 rally crossing at 5.36 3/4. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this fall's decline, the May 2007 low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 5.86 would confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted.

December Kansas City Wheat closed up 5-cents at 5.68. December Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.77 1/2. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this summer's decline, the May 2007 low crossing at 4.96 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 6.22 1/2 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.

December Minneapolis wheat closed up 6-cents at 6.40. December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 6.44 3/4. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 5.89 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 7.10 are needed to confirm that a seasonal bottom has been posted.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

January soybeans closed up 15-cents at 9.21. January soybeans closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 9.23 1/2. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If January renews this fall's decline, the 2007 low crossing at 8.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.03 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted.

December soybean meal closed up $8.90 at $271.70. December soybean meal closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline and closed above the 20 day moving average crossing at 266.00. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 237.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 289.00 are needed to renew the rally off October's low.

December soybean oil closed down 27 pts. at 33.90. December soybean oil closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December renews this fall's decline, the 2007 low crossing at 27.50 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 37.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

LIVESTOCK

December hogs closed up $0.57 at $55.40. December hogs gapped up and closed higher on Friday due to short covering. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 56.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 50.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 55.85. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 56.93. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 53.90. Second support is monthly support crossing at 50.65.

February bellies closed up $2.30 at $86.10. February bellies gapped up and closed sharply higher on Friday as it rebounds off Wednesday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 80.67 is the next downside target.
December cattle closed down $0.50 at 92.80.

December cattle closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 91.76. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.76 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends this week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 97.50 is the next upside target.
November feeder cattle closed up $0.07 at $98.95.

October Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday but the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends this week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 105.25 is the next upside target.

Extreme Market Commentary For Wednesday Evening

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT
The U.S. stock indexes closed sharply lower today as traders experienced a post election hangover after pushing index prices sharply higher on Tuesday. News today from ADP that projected a very weak U.S. jobs report on Friday also reminded traders how sick is the U.S. economy, with recovery nowhere close at hand. There are still early technical clues to suggest market bottoms are in place. However, as the weakening economic news continues to trickle into the marketplace, it will be hard for the stock market bulls to get excited about sustaining any solid uptrend in prices. Do remember that during serious economic weakness or recession that generally the stock market puts in a low well before all the bad economic news is reported.

INTEREST RATES

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 26/32 at 117 6/32 today. Prices closed near the session high on more short covering and flight to quality buying amid a big sell off in the stock market today. A bullish double bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Bulls have fresh upside near-term technical momentum.

ENERGY MARKETS
December crude oil closed down $5.35 at $65.18 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today. A sharply lower U.S. stock market pressured the crude today. Crude oil bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices remain in a 3 1/2 month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

December heating oil closed down 1,086 points at $2.0530 today. Prices closed near the session low. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. A 3 1/2 month old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 1,077 points at $1.4250 today. Prices closed near the session low today. There was not follow-through buying interest today and a bullish "key reversal" up was not confirmed on the daily bar chart. The bears are still in technical control. Prices are still in a 3 1/2 month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

December natural gas closed up 4.1 cents at $7.26 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at a fresh four week high close on more short covering in a bear market. The bulls have some fresh upside near term technical momentum but need to do more upside work to begin to suggest that a near term low is in place.

CURRENCIES
The December Euro currency closed down 15 points at 1.2916 today. Prices closed near mid-range. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage amid still no strong technical clues that a market low is close at hand. Prices are still in a 3 1/2 month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The December Japanese yen closed up 116 points at 1.0152 today. Prices closed near the session high today. No serious chart damage has been inflicted recently. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.

The December Swiss franc closed up 18 points at .8605 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Short covering in a bear market was featured again today. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage.

The December Canadian dollar closed down 96 points at .8576 today. Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting a fresh three week high early on. Bulls still have some upside near term technical momentum to begin to suggest that a market low is in place.

The December British pound closed down 6 points at 1.5886 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. Prices are still in a six week old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 13 points at 85.50 today. Prices closed near mid range today. No serious chart damage has occurred recently and the bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage. There are no strong early technical clues of a market top being close at hand.

PRECIOUS METALS
December gold futures closed down $16.20 at $741.10 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Mostly bearish "outside markets" sharply lower crude oil prices and sharp losses in the stock market pressured gold today. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.

December silver futures closed up 27.0 cents at $10.40 an ounce today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a fresh three week high close. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are still trading below a 3 1/2 month old downtrend line on the daily bar chart.

December N.Y. copper closed down 1,460 points at 181.20 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today. Mostly bearish "outside markets" sharply lower crude oil prices and sharp losses in the stock market pressured copper today. Copper bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a four month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

SOFTS
March sugar closed down 4 points at 12.67 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Mostly bearish "outside markets" sharply lower crude oil prices and sharp losses in the stock market pressured sugar today. Prices are still trading below a 2 1/2 month old downtrend line drawn from the August and September highs.

December coffee closed down 50 points at 116.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today but did poke to a fresh four week high early on. Mostly bearish "outside markets" sharply lower crude oil prices and sharp losses in the stock market pressured coffee today. Coffee bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

December cocoa closed down $27 at $1,972 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Mostly bearish "outside markets" sharply lower crude oil prices and sharp losses in the stock market pressured corn today. Cocoa bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.

December cotton closed down 203 points at 44.29 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today. Mostly bearish "outside markets" sharply lower crude oil prices and sharp losses in the stock market pressured cotton today. The cotton bears still have the solid near term technical advantage. Prices are still in a 7 1/2 month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

January orange juice closed up 315 points at $.8600. Prices closed near the session high today. More short covering was featured. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways for four weeks and that does favor the bullish camp as it suggests a bottoming process.

January lumber futures closed up $4.00 at $209.50 today. Prices closed near the session high and were supported by more short covering in a bear market. Lumber bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

GRAINS
December corn futures closed down 21 1/2 cents at $3.91 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session low. Mostly bearish "outside markets" sharply lower crude oil prices and sharp losses in the stock market pressured corn today. Bears gained some fresh downside technical momentum today. Corn prices are still trading below a four month old downtrend line on the daily bar chart.

January soybeans closed down 54 1/2 cents at $9.04 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Mostly bearish "outside markets" sharply lower crude oil prices and sharp losses in the stock market pressured beans today. Soybean bears remain in overall near term technical command and gained fresh downside momentum today.

December soybean meal closed down $12.80 at $265.00 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

December bean oil closed down 195 points at 34.02 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bean oil prices are still in a four month old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the near term technical advantage.

December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 35 1/4 cents at $5.37 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Mostly bearish "outside markets" sharply lower crude oil prices and sharp losses in the stock market pressured wheat today. The bulls had gained some fresh upside technical momentum, but lost it today. The wheat bears have the overall near term technical advantage and regained downside momentum today.

LIVESTOCK
December live cattle closed up $0.42 at $94.27 today. Prices closed near the session high today and did close at a fresh three-week high close on more short covering and bargain hunting buying interest. While the bears do still have the overall near-term technical advantage, the bulls have gained upside momentum recently to begin to suggest a near-term low is in place.

November feeder cattle closed up $0.15 at $100.65 today. Prices closed near the session high today and poked to a fresh four-week high on bargain-hunting buying and short covering. The bulls have gained technical momentum recently to begin to suggest a near term low is in place.

December lean hogs closed up $0.05 at $54.47 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices set a fresh contract low early on today. Hog bears still have the near term technical advantage, amid bearish cash market fundamentals. Prices are still in a three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are no clues of a market low being close at hand.

February pork bellies closed down $0.85 at $83.80 today. Prices closed near mid-range and did poke to a fresh contract low. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six week old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

Is This A Bear Market Rally, Or Is It A Genuine Turn In The Market?

Guest Blogger today is Adam Hewison of The Market Club and INO.Com. Nobody in this industry can guide us through the market trends better then Adam.


With the Federal Reserve cutting the discount rate 50 basis points to 1%, it remains to be seen if this will loosen up the credit markets. There remains a great deal of mistrust among banks and borrowers at the present time, and until that changes, we would look for the economy to limp along.

The sharp move up, in both the DOW and the other indices on Tuesday was a sharp counter trend rally to what remains a prolonged bear market. One day does not make a trend, and we will not know for some time if the lows we have seen recently in the past month are going to be the final lows of this bear market.

Our gut feeling is, that we will see more sideways action in these markets for some time to come. We would not look for any dramatic upside action in stocks. If we do see a further rally from current levels, it would be perfectly normal within the confines of a bear market. If you are inclined to trade these markets from the long side, I suggest doing so with a slightly smaller position than you would normally trade. We expect the volatility level to subside from its current torrid pace and fall back to a more normal level as we move sideways.

The judicious use of a game plan and money management stops is highly recommended for everyone. These markets can cut you into pieces in hours mainly because of the market’s inability to fashion out a firm trend either on the upside or downside.

Just because the market is going sideways does not indicate that all is over on the downside. The longer we see these markets move sideways, the greater the opportunity that we may be building a base to carry the markets higher.

Adam Hewison
President,INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub.com

Blogging About Stocks A Lot Like Trading

We are going to spend quite some time trading in an environment where traders will basically be looking at each other and saying....."You Buy It"....."No You Buy It".

Being the first one to call a bear market always brings some grief from the Bulls. But here is the first few lines from one of my favorite investment bloggers......

Dow to Fall ANOTHER 2,200 Points
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

Dear Subscriber,

Today's 508-point plunge brings the Dow closer to our long-standing target of 7,200. But to get there, it still has a long way to fall — over 2,200 points......

It's a tough one to swallow but I am afraid we are going to have to. Forget the fundamentals, sell all of your stocks on every rally [we'll still have those] except the ones that have a safe dividend in the 10-15 percent and even then only the best large cap companies. You think their market value makes you sick now. Imagine losing another 2,200 points!

And don't expect any help from Washington anytime soon and that is about the best news I have heard all week. Can someone please figure out exactly how many DOW points we lose per word that Uncle Ben speaks!

The more Bernanke [and is boss] say, the worst the market feels. It's a confidence game now and it is obvious any real leadership out of Washington will have to wait for the next president. And of course the congress and senates much needed vacation.

No sense in talking about trades, I'll be putting on the same Swing Trade I have wrote about in my latest post. Today I got hung up with the DDM when I bought it at about DOW down 300 and it continued down. Looking for a rally to sell it off and buy the DXD or SDS.

That's all I got!