Stock Market Smack Down “Fundamentals vs Technicals”

Every once in a while, we all like to flip the TV channels and watch Jim Cramer on CNBC. It’s not that Jim Cramer is a spectacular trader, he is a talented and amusing guy. The last time I tuned on the tube, CNBC’s Jim Cramer was naming his top five picks to get you through these recessionary times.

So here is a list of the five stocks that Mr. Cramer picked on the close of business on January 8, 2009.

Caterpillar: (NYSE_CAT) - Closed @ 44.08
Home Depot: (NYSE_HD) - Closed @ 24.38
Johnson and Johnson: (NYSE_JNJ ) - Closed @ 59.02
Hewlett - Packard Company: (NYSE_HPQ) - Closed @ 37.61
Verizon Communications: (NYSE_VZ) - Closed @ 32.42

So we decided to put MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” technology right next to Jim Cramer’s picks to compare how we both have done for the past few weeks. The one thing that struck us as odd with Mr. Cramer’s trading, is that he never seems to implement a stop loss technique. He talks about money management, but never about the use of stops. He just seems to let his positions run. For example, in the case of Caterpillar (NYSE_CAT), Mr Cramer’s first pick is down 25% from the date it was recommended. I don’t know about you, but a 25% loss in any market is enough to give me the heebie jeebies.

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Admittedly that’s extreme, but if your only looking for a 25% up move and the stock is down 25% you really have to make 50% just to get back to even. It’s the type of trading I just don’t understand. I learned a long time ago that trying to pick bottoms and tops in the markets is a loser’s game and a futile exercise that can be very expensive.

So, if Mr. Cramer is long all the stocks listed above, what positions is MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” technology suggesting for those stocks … are we long or are we short? Well, it turns out we are short all of the above stocks and we see the trend in those stocks as still being negative.

So what’s an investor to do? You can be entertained by Jim Cramer or you can use the “Trade Triangles” to scientifically make money in the markets. The great thing about MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” technology is that there is no emotion in the signals, it is purely a mathematical algorithm that keeps you on the side with the better odds.

A systematic market proven program approach has flaws like anything else. However, if one follows an approach like this you will make money over time. It also allows you to sleep much better at night when using a systematic program to buy and sell stocks, futures, precious metals and the forex markets.

So while Mr. Cramer is enormously popular and entertaining, I’m not sure that I would want to put my money with this type of approach. I would much rather approach the market in a systematic, scientific way knowing that the odds are in my favor.

We will follow up on these trades when we receive a buy signal or an exit-short position signal and we’ll see exactly how our “Trade Triangle” technology is working vis-a-vis Mr. Cramer.

Please feel free to make comments on this post and if Mr. Cramer decides to cover his positions and you hear about it first let us know.

Click Here To Check Out “Fundamentals vs Technicals” Video"