Key Stock Market Commentary For Monday Evening

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENTARY
The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today in quieter pre election trading. The stock index bears still have the near term technical advantage. However, there are now early technical clues to suggest market bottoms are in place or close at hand. However, as the weakening economic news continues to trickle into the marketplace, it will be hard for the stock market bulls to get excited about sustaining any solid uptrend in prices. Do remember that during serious economic weakness or recession that generally the stock market puts in a low well before all the bad economic news is reported.

ENERGY MARKETS
December crude oil closed down $3.84 at $63.97 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today. A firmer U.S. dollar pressured crude oil. Crude oil bears do still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices remain in a 3 1/2 month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

December heating oil closed down 993 points at $1.9849 today. Prices closed near the session low. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. A 3 1/2 month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 1,302 points at $1.3657 today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh contract low. Bears are still in firm technical control. Prices are still in a 3 1/2 month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

December natural gas closed up 5.1 cents at $6.834 today. Prices closed near the session high on tepid short covering in a bear market today. Bears remain in technical control of nat gas. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $7.332.

CURRENCIES
The December Euro currency closed down 116 points at 1.2625 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bears still have the near term technical advantage amid still no solid technical clues that a market low is close at hand. Prices are still in a 3 1/2 month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The December Japanese yen closed down 37 points at 1.0103 today. Prices closed near mid range today. No serious chart damage has been inflicted but the yen bulls are fading and need to show fresh power soon. A 10 week old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart.

The December Swiss franc closed down 143 points at .8521 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh 14 month low. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage and gained more power today.

The December Canadian dollar closed up 127 points at .8452 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage, but the bulls have gained some fresh upside technical momentum recently.

The December British pound closed down 303 points at 1.5803 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 520 points at 86.86 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. No serious chart damage has occurred recently and the bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage.



Precious Metals Market
December gold futures closed up $6.50 at $724.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Short covering was featured. Bearish "outside markets"--a stronger U.S. dollar and sharply lower crude oil prices--limited the upside in gold today. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.

December silver futures closed steady at $9.73 an ounce today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bearish "outside markets" a stronger U.S. dollar and sharply lower crude oil prices pressured the silver market today. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are still trading below a 3 1/2 month old downtrend line on the daily bar chart.
December N.Y. copper closed up 55 points at 183.45 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bearish "outside markets" a stronger U.S. dollar and sharply lower crude oil prices limited the upside in copper today. Copper bears still have the near term technical advantage. Prices are still in a four month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

FOOD & FIBER
SOFTS
March sugar closed up 27 points at 12.29 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today on more short covering. Prices are still trading below a 2 1/2 month
old downtrend line drawn from the August and September highs.

December coffee closed down 5 points at 112.95 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. Buying interest was limited by Bearish "outside markets" a stronger U.S. dollar and sharply lower crude oil prices. Coffee bears still have the near term technical advantage. Prices are still in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

December cocoa closed down $86 at $1,967 today. Prices closed near the session low today amid bearish "outside markets" a stronger U.S. dollar and sharply lower crude oil prices. Cocoa bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today.

December cotton closed up 27 points at 44.56 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today in quiet trading. Bearish "outside markets" a stronger U.S. dollar and sharply lower crude oil prices limited buying interest in cotton today. The cotton bears still have the solid near term technical advantage.

January orange juice closed up 65 points at $.8095. Prices closed near the session low today. Short covering was featured. Bearish "outside markets" a stronger U.S. dollar and sharply lower crude oil prices limited the upside in FCOJ today. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage as prices are still in a four month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

January lumber futures closed up $4.50 at $203.10 today. Prices closed near the session high and were supported by short covering in a bear market. Lumber bears still have the near-term technical advantage.

GRAINS
December corn futures closed up 3/4 cent at $4.02 1/4 today. Bearish "outside markets" a stronger U.S. dollar and sharply lower crude oil prices pressured the corn market today. Prices traded sharply higher early in the session on short covering, but the gains faded as the day wore on.

January soybeans closed up 7 1/4 cents at $9.40 1/4 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bearish "outside markets" a stronger U.S. dollar and sharply lower crude oil prices did limit the upside in beans today. Short covering was featured today. Soybean bears remain in near term technical command.

December soybean meal closed up $1.90 at $274.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Short covering was featured. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.

December bean oil closed up 114 points at 34.75 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today on short covering in a bear market. Bean oil prices are still in a four month old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage.

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 25 3/4 cents at $5.62 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering. The wheat bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are still in a 6 1/2 month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

LIVESTOCK
December live cattle closed up $0.55 at $93.25 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh three week high on short covering. While the bears do still have the overall near term technical advantage, the bulls have gained some upside momentum recently, but have more work to do to better suggest a market low is in place. Prices are still trading below a four-month-old downtrend line on the daily bar chart.

November feeder cattle closed up $1.07 at $99.70 today. Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a fresh three-week high close on more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls have gained technical momentum recently. Prices are still in a three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely.

December lean hogs closed down $0.40 at $54.40 today. Prices closed near the session low again today and hit a fresh contract low. Hog bears still have the near term technical advantage, amid bearish cash market fundamentals. Prices are still in a three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

February pork bellies closed down $0.87 at $83.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a fresh contract low. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. Prices are in a six week old downtrend on the daily bar chart.


December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 8/32 at 113 12/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering in a bear market. T-Bonds and Notes will continue to likely trade in an inverse posture with the U.S. stock indexes. The next downside price objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 112 17/32.